California to ban new gas car sales by 2035

Lazy8s

Lazy8s

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https://www.npr.org/2022/08/25/1119381508/california-ban-gas-cars-2035

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California is poised to set a 2035 deadline for all new cars, trucks and SUVs sold in the state to be powered by electricity or hydrogen, an ambitious step that will reshape the U.S. car market by speeding the transition to more climate-friendly vehicles.

The California Air Resources Board will vote Thursday on the policy, which sets the most aggressive roadmap in the nation for moving away from gas-powered cars. It doesn't eliminate such vehicles, however.

People can continue driving gas-fueled vehicles and purchasing used ones after 2035. The plan also allows for one-fifth of sales after 2035 to be plug-in hybrids that can run on batteries and gas.
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That’s not far off.
 
Considering that California has enough trouble keeping the lights on during their frequent heat waves, I'm wondering how they'll work with the utility providers to increase electricity generation and distribution to support all those EVs. Also, I assume they have a plan to safely dispose of the EV batteries once they die. :bleh:

Point is, it's a bold move but as usual I don't think Californian law makers have thought this through all the way. Having lived there for most of my life, this doesn't surprise me in the least.
 
Munkus said:
Considering that California has enough trouble keeping the lights on during their frequent heat waves, I'm wondering how they'll work with the utility providers to increase electricity generation and distribution to support all those EVs. Also, I assume they have a plan to safely dispose of the EV batteries once they die. :bleh:

Point is, it's a bold move but as usual I don't think Californian law makers have thought this through all the way. Having lived there for most of my life, this doesn't surprise me in the least.
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To be fair, that might be a political thing rather than a geographical thing. It happens here, and there, and everywhere :(
 
They will stop selling but the dominant car will still be ICE. Most people are renters and they cant charge at home so its not even going to be an option to get an EV. With the number of EV cars going up year over year there will be less and less charging spaces which are already getting cramped as is.
 
I can’t think of anywhere I’ve read about where the infrastructure can support BAU + a majority EV owners.

Not to mention the problems Munkus brought up with battery disposal, costs etc.
 
logical said:
They will stop selling but the dominant car will still be ICE. Most people are renters and they cant charge at home so its not even going to be an option to get an EV. With the number of EV cars going up year over year there will be less and less charging spaces which are already getting cramped as is.
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Just buy a bike or take public transit.....:bleh:

Because those are ideal and such desirable solutions.....
 
Lazy8s said:
I can’t think of anywhere I’ve read about where the infrastructure can support BAU + a majority EV owners.

Not to mention the problems Munkus brought up with battery disposal, costs etc.
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All these green fools NEVER think about the entire picture, only the good stuff. Otherwise their rosy smug views of goodness arent going to look as great when you have bad things that cancel out some of the good things.

They also dont ever think about how to solve the problem or how to get to the solution.....its only "this is the current problem, this is the current solution. Now DO IT!"
 
logical said:
They will stop selling but the dominant car will still be ICE. Most people are renters and they cant charge at home so its not even going to be an option to get an EV. With the number of EV cars going up year over year there will be less and less charging spaces which are already getting cramped as is.
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The Build Back Better Act that passed the House contained provisions that made massive investments in building out a nationwide supercharging network. Ideally, in the next couple years, we can bring that back to get a head start on building out a charging network.

For renters, I don't really see this as being a problem. Most people who rent apartments or whatnot have cars that have gas tanks with roughly a 300 mile range (give or take), and can't refill their gas tank at home. They still have to go to a gas station which takes 5-10 minutes. In the same way, they can stop by a location with a charging station to do the same. I definitely think the time per fill-up and range per charge isn't quite as efficient as a gas vehicle, which most rapid chargers doing somewhere around 100-200 miles of range in 20-30 minutes.

But the rapid charging network locations doesn't have to be the same as what we have now either. We don't have to create specific gas stations just for refueling cars. We can build out super chargers pretty much anywhere where there's a nearby electrical grid. A lot of restaurants have charging stations, malls, libraries, and I've even seen chargers at like McDonald's or a local grocery store. The point is, we need chargers everywhere, but we actually CAN start putting chargers everywhere. Their footprint is far smaller than an entire gas station, the distribution is more distributed, and people can start refueling their cars no matter what else they're doing like running errands or grabbing a bite.

Yes, apartment complexes can and should be installing charging stations, but there's no reason to avoid a transition to an all EV industry simply because they haven't yet and need to.

Lazy8s said:
I can’t think of anywhere I’ve read about where the infrastructure can support BAU + a majority EV owners.

Not to mention the problems Munkus brought up with battery disposal, costs etc.
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The recycling issue is a problem. Though I'd argue that burning fossil fuels until we run out and the planet burns up is the far bigger issue. Right now, several of the auto manufacturers have been looking at battery recycling as a potential avenue towards decreasing the dependency on rare earth minerals needed to produce batteries now. Like GM's Ultium Cell technology, which GM estimates they can plan on recovering 95% of the materials during the recycling process to produce new Ultium batteries.

GM is hoping to be involved in the EV battery recycling process, partnering with Canadian-based battery recycling company Li-Cycle to recycle up to 100 percent of the material scrap from its battery cell manufacturing processes. The recycling process will allow GM’s Ultium Cells LLC battery subsidiary to recycle important and expensive battery materials, including cobalt, nickel, lithium, graphite, copper, manganese and aluminum. Ninety-five percent of these materials can be used in the production of new batteries or for adjacent industries, GM says.

GM has recycled 100 percent of the batteries it has received back from customers through warranty claims, trade-ins or leases since 2013. In fact, most current GM EVs are repaired with refurbished packs when they experience a battery problem – a practice that will likely continue and expand as more GM EVs hit the market in the coming years.

(Source)
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As for the grid and its ability to support EV vehicles, as you mentioned, we have problems with our aging power grid already. Texas, quite famously, has had some pretty extensive and serious outages recently and at the same time prides itself on avoiding evil federal government "regulation" with laughable results. But even in "pro regulation" environments like California they have struggled with their grid.

Lake Mead is getting close to having to shut down due to a lack of water, which won't help Las Vegas any. But some of these grid challenges can be mitigated through distributed power generation like adding solar panels to everyone's rooftops. In a net metering scenario, with a big enough array, you can pretty much power a home just with the sunlight that hits its roof most days, sending excess back into the grid. Add a battery backup solution and you can charge a car overnight. Minimizing draw on the network.

Does it fully and perfectly off set the need to replace aging infrastructure and solve for problems like power generation during ice storms and when there's excessive cloud cover? No. But we have those problems right now. I don't think something not being a perfect silver bullet for all scenarios doesn't mean we don't still do the work anyways.

We need to improve storage and we definitely need more nuke plants and people to stop with the NIMBY bullshit. :bleh2:
 
it's the same in Europe, just with an even worse infrastructure of chargers.

I'm sure that'll totally work out.....
 
shrike126 said:
The Build Back Better Act that passed the House contained provisions that made massive investments in building out a nationwide supercharging network. Ideally, in the next couple years, we can bring that back to get a head start on building out a charging network.

For renters, I don't really see this as being a problem. Most people who rent apartments or whatnot have cars that have gas tanks with roughly a 300 mile range (give or take), and can't refill their gas tank at home. They still have to go to a gas station which takes 5-10 minutes. In the same way, they can stop by a location with a charging station to do the same. I definitely think the time per fill-up and range per charge isn't quite as efficient as a gas vehicle, which most rapid chargers doing somewhere around 100-200 miles of range in 20-30 minutes.

But the rapid charging network locations doesn't have to be the same as what we have now either. We don't have to create specific gas stations just for refueling cars. We can build out super chargers pretty much anywhere where there's a nearby electrical grid. A lot of restaurants have charging stations, malls, libraries, and I've even seen chargers at like McDonald's or a local grocery store. The point is, we need chargers everywhere, but we actually CAN start putting chargers everywhere. Their footprint is far smaller than an entire gas station, the distribution is more distributed, and people can start refueling their cars no matter what else they're doing like running errands or grabbing a bite.

Yes, apartment complexes can and should be installing charging stations, but there's no reason to avoid a transition to an all EV industry simply because they haven't yet and need to.
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Agreed. I think we do need to start somewhere. It’s just the degree we go to in what amount of time before we’re fully prepared to sustain that degree.

The recycling issue is a problem. Though I'd argue that burning fossil fuels until we run out and the planet burns up is the far bigger issue. Right now, several of the auto manufacturers have been looking at battery recycling as a potential avenue towards decreasing the dependency on rare earth minerals needed to produce batteries now. Like GM's Ultium Cell technology, which GM estimates they can plan on recovering 95% of the materials during the recycling process to produce new Ultium batteries.
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95% is a lofty goal, but if they can manage it, or even 85% or there about, that would offset an awful lot of concern :up:

As for the grid and its ability to support EV vehicles, as you mentioned, we have problems with our aging power grid already. Texas, quite famously, has had some pretty extensive and serious outages recently and at the same time prides itself on avoiding evil federal government "regulation" with laughable results. But even in "pro regulation" environments like California they have struggled with their grid.

Lake Mead is getting close to having to shut down due to a lack of water, which won't help Las Vegas any. But some of these grid challenges can be mitigated through distributed power generation like adding solar panels to everyone's rooftops. In a net metering scenario, with a big enough array, you can pretty much power a home just with the sunlight that hits its roof most days, sending excess back into the grid. Add a battery backup solution and you can charge a car overnight. Minimizing draw on the network.

Does it fully and perfectly off set the need to replace aging infrastructure and solve for problems like power generation during ice storms and when there's excessive cloud cover? No. But we have those problems right now. I don't think something not being a perfect silver bullet for all scenarios doesn't mean we don't still do the work anyways.
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Again, yeah, we’re on the same page. Here in MA, my house specifically, $28k for solar + battery backup because I won’t do it without battery backup - so it’s not a huge deal breaker, but the 2 major companies that service MA are also kicking ass with grid upgrades and repairs these past couple of years. At the rate we’re going, I think we could operate at peak with a higher number of of EVs charging where ever.

Cali, TX and some others, yeah we’ve seen what those areas are dealing with, and I would love to see more nuke plants. We have one in Plymouth that was shut down recently - would like to see that decision reversed as well.

We need to improve storage and we definitely need more nuke plants and people to stop with the NIMBY bullshit. :bleh2:
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NIMBY is going to be a thorn in the side here, bug time. I mean, we can’t even have windmills off shore because it ruins the view and whales and scallops and Native American tribes.
https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/08/25/nantucket-wind-turbine-federal-lawsuit-endangered-whales

Yeah ok….

Sorry if the replies are formatted badly. Old guy + mobile device + long post :(

Edit: that should be better…
 
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Yeah I hope they are taking into account their hydro power is probably going to go way down. They do have a solar panel requirement for new buildings but unless we get another big quake, building turnover is even slower than car turnover. And I'm hoping the requirements include an EV in the garage (though I'm guessing not and will have to be updated).
 
dodger said:
Yeah I hope they are taking into account their hydro power is probably going to go way down. They do have a solar panel requirement for new buildings but unless we get another big quake, building turnover is even slower than car turnover. And I'm hoping the requirements include an EV in the garage (though I'm guessing not and will have to be updated).
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I had to go look for a link because it seemed like I remembered there being some big project to upgrade their distribution network in California to handle the expected increase capacity in production and storage.

California’s transition to clean electric power will require $30.5bn investment in high-voltage bulk transmission infrastructure by 2040 to tie together a potential 121GW of new battery storage and renewable energy production, according to a planning document issued by the state’s grid operator.

“There is a critical need for more proactive, long-term transmission planning and coordination,” said Elliot Mainzer, CEO of California ISO (Caiso), a non-profit that manages the state’s bulk power system, transmission lines, and electricity market.

“This type of forward-looking planning and coordination is essential to meeting the state’s energy policy goals in a reliable and cost-effective fashion and strengthening interconnections with our partners across the West,” he added.

Caiso collaborated with the California Energy Commission and California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) on the draft paper released earlier this month. A final version will be available in March.

Source - Recharge: California scopes $30bn grid plan in face of 'unprecedented' green power demand
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So it looks like California has this on their radar and is trying to get out ahead of the problem.

As an aside, I live in Colorado and while our power generation isn't subject to outages, the new IRA 2022 tax credit for renewables has encouraged me to bring out a couple companies for rooftop solar site surveys this week. I'm meeting with sales reps from both companies (Blue Raven Solar and Solfinity) on Friday to pick one of their proposals and move forward with rooftop solar and net metering.

So, personally, I'm hoping to get our house off of a complete grid dependency and at least do our part to offset carbon emissions on a day-to-day basis.
 
Even if the auto industry could swing it for California, and even if California can swing it for themselves (two things I'm highly skeptical about) I don't see that it'd be possible nationwide. The upshot is that I see 90-100% of electric vehicles earmarked for California (since the manufacturers don't have a choice) and few designated in the rest of the country.

I think there's a serious materials problem that they're hoping gets addressed, but I'm not confident that it can be to the level they're demanding.
 
koralis said:
Even if the auto industry could swing it for California, and even if California can swing it for themselves (two things I'm highly skeptical about) I don't see that it'd be possible nationwide. The upshot is that I see 90-100% of electric vehicles earmarked for California (since the manufacturers don't have a choice) and few designated in the rest of the country.

I think there's a serious materials problem that they're hoping gets addressed, but I'm not confident that it can be to the level they're demanding.
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Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares said he expects shortages of the batteries and raw materials needed to make electric vehicles in the coming years, as the global automotive industry pivots to EVs to meet an expected increase in consumer demand and government regulations.

Tavares said he expects a shortage of EV batteries by 2024-2025, followed by a lack of raw materials for the vehicles that will slow availability and adoption of EVs by 2027-2028.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/ste... expects a shortage,their ability to sell EVs.

CA just jacked the EV prices up .
 
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