Official Thread: Coronavirus "COVID-19"

[xCLAVEx]

I'm sorry. You were right. I got the numbers wrong. It was 100k+ infected and 24k-25k dead.

[bill dennison]

I can believe China is fudging the numbers that far

[nutcrackr]

Infected numbers seem to be leveling out. So the number of deaths should probably slowly decrease. If this tracks like SARS then we'll have basically no deaths in a month, and the final death count will be 1300-1500.

[pax]

Its almost certainly way past the mark where millions should have been exposed but only a small % get sick from it. In past years before we could decode dna on a dime these deaths would have been tabulated along with all other flu deaths in a given flu season making it slightly worse or the same as most other years. As it currently stands this year is no worse overall for flu deaths globally.

If we start panicking at every novel coronavirus we will be panicking often as its a main cause of the common cold that many get yearly. And for one to get a cold again the next coronavirus has to be novel to you in order for it to get past your immunity to the previous forms of it.

[bill dennison]

Coronavirus Updates: Virus Is Said to Spread Through Apartment Building’s Pipes

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

bad plumbing



but then most apartment building’s i ever worked on had some bad plumbing

[switchAMG]

Its almost certainly way past the mark where millions should have been exposed but only a small % get sick from it. In past years before we could decode dna on a dime these deaths would have been tabulated along with all other flu deaths in a given flu season making it slightly worse or the same as most other years. As it currently stands this year is no worse overall for flu deaths globally.

If we start panicking at every novel coronavirus we will be panicking often as its a main cause of the common cold that many get yearly. And for one to get a cold again the next coronavirus has to be novel to you in order for it to get past your immunity to the previous forms of it.

Not sure I really agree. The Flu, whether it be seasonal or an oddball strain like H1N1—can infect millions of people, but it kills a relatively low % of its cases: ~0.1%. Pandemic coronaviruses—like SARS, MERS, and the new one from China—are far more savage. SARS killed about 10% of its cases, on only ~8000 confirmed infections.

As of today, the Coronavirus has already surpassed MERS as far as infections go, and is killing >2.5% of cases (based on what my cool app tells me) -- thats already ~25% more deadly than the flu. Its too early to tell how bad this thing gets, but I think its too early to minimize it. Hopefully if they keep the infected isolated and quarantined it fizzles out sooner than later.

And don't forget -- the media said the same thing about Ebola in W. Africa in 2014, "Ebola is bad, Flu is worse." -- how did that comment work out?

[Sasquach]

IT has officially been given the name COVID-19

COrona Virus Disease 2019

[pax]

Not sure I really agree. The Flu, whether it be seasonal or an oddball strain like H1N1—can infect millions of people, but it kills a relatively low % of its cases: ~0.1%. Pandemic coronaviruses—like SARS, MERS, and the new one from China—are far more savage. SARS killed about 10% of its cases, on only ~8000 confirmed infections.

As of today, the Coronavirus has already surpassed MERS as far as infections go, and is killing >2.5% of cases (based on what my cool app tells me) -- thats already ~25% more deadly than the flu. Its too early to tell how bad this thing gets, but I think its too early to minimize it. Hopefully if they keep the infected isolated and quarantined it fizzles out sooner than later.

And don't forget -- the media said the same thing about Ebola in W. Africa in 2014, "Ebola is bad, Flu is worse." -- how did that comment work out?

Coronaviruses are highly contagious. Looking at the population density in China alone its virtually certain many more than 80 thousand were exposed. So while the death rate of those who are susceptible to this virus and get sick seems high we need to look at the exposure rate, the number of people who came into contact with the virus but whose immune system prevented infection, which is still unknown. Could be a million easy. 100 million at this point not outside the rhealm of possibility for a cold/flu virus which has been circulating for at least 4-5 months now.

Its a problem that we can identify whose who are sick easily and decode a genome quickly but we cant do widespread testing for immune responses in the population at large.

[Shapeshifter]

[yt]9GN_4BlUD60[/yt]

lets be serious in using the window of opportunity we have. We shouldn't lose this opportunity, if we lose we will regret it and the opportunity was created because of the serious measures china is taking in Wuhan and the other affected provinces that is slowing the spread of the virus to the rest of the world. But I don't think this status can stay the same for long.

That's why we have to use the current window of opportunity to hit hard and stand in unison to fight this virus in every corner if we don't we could have far more cases and and far higher costs on our hands and I don't think anyone wants that.

This is a common enemy and we have to fight it using this window of opportunity and fight it hard I thank you.

[Dengin]

Has this spread to the other 1 billion+ inhabitants countries yet?

[bill dennison]

the cruise ship industry is going to take a big hit on this

Cruise ship outbreak worsens as China coronavirus cases appear to level off

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/11/asia/novel-coronavirus-update-intl-hnk/index.html

[Shapeshifter]

china apparently changed how they define a new case. like you test positive and are asymptomatic they don't mark it down as a new case or something. Just another way to fudge the numbers.

[Sasquach]

the cruise ship industry is going to take a big hit on this




https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/11/asia/...hnk/index.html

I wouldnt be surprised if all 4000ish passengers on the japanese quarantined cruise ship eventually get infected.

Best case scenario in that situation would be the virus passes through and doesnt find its way off the cruise ship.

Best case scenario for that cruise ship would be that the virus somehow hits a wall and no new infections happen beyond the current confirmed cases.

[DaJMasta]

I wouldnt be surprised if all 4000ish passengers on the japanese quarantined cruise ship eventually get infected.

Maybe call me naive, but I just don't see it happening on the data we have. There were a bunch of models predicting hundreds of thousands or millions of cases even before the quarantine efforts hit and even if China is keeping a massive cover up operation going (and I do expect they're at least trying to downplay the impact and scale).... I don't have the confidence that they could actually maintain a cover up this long that makes the problem seem 10-100x smaller than it actually is.


For all the firewalling and government control, there is a lot of ability for data from the people to get out of China, and there has been substantive international help that wouldn't be subject to those restrictions.... I really think the reported number of confirmed cases (currently 45k) is really about what there is confirmed.


There will be more discovered, there are some cases that have already been missed (and some that have already recovered), but I don't think the coronavirus actually spreads quickly enough to infect a whole cruise ship. If it did, then we would already have hundreds of thousands of cases and we would have outbreaks in other countries based around people coming from the initial outbreak areas, and we haven't seen that.

[Shapeshifter]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html

Top CDC official says US should prepare for coronavirus 'to take a foothold'

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday it is preparing for the new coronavirus, which has killed at least 1,115 and sickened more than 45,000 worldwide, to "take a foothold in the U.S."

"At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. "This will trigger a change in our response strategy."

[Nunz]

Lol try to get the mass panic going

[Koenig]

....

This is my thought as well. Also, it's in China's best interest to be as accurate as possible now since they are enlisting help from outside sources. This isnt like say North Korea being compelled to let the UN to inspect nuclear sites or something. If the official total is off, it is probably likely due to pockets where health services are poor.

There is a belief among the majority of people that governments will try to keep silent about health scares or emergencies to prevent a public scare. My Emergency Management classes at college and work in government, I have found this to be mostly untrue. The damage to limiting information actually can do more damage to the situation and the public image of agencies far worse than if they cause a scare that ends up not turning into anything. Because if you don't get the story out, someone else will.

[Koenig]

One other bit of good news is that the infection levels are leveling out now. I had noticed it a couple of days ago but decided to wait in case that days average wasjust an outlier.

[DaJMasta]

Well the numbers have surged with the latest update, but apparently this is because for within the province of the outbreak, now clinically diagnosed cases are being considered confirmed cases, while the actual numbers are still an increase but a much more moderate one.


Was pointed to a new tracker for the same data, but this one includes some extra detail behind the extra reports for the day as well as a bit of a disease profile for what is known/predicted about the behavior of the disease.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Shapeshifter]

Martial law I guess? was declared in Zhangwan District, Shiyan, Hubei

Residents are not allowed to leave homes.

[DaJMasta]

Martial law I guess? was declared in Zhangwan District, Shiyan, Hubei

Residents are not allowed to leave homes.

Didn't that happen a bit ago? I had heard they were telling people to stay indoors and tell the authorities if their family member was sick. I've also seen something suggesting that there's been some sort of work restriction - like extended national holiday kind of stuff - which is supposed to be lifted in the next week or so so that the normal economy of the region can start recovering.




Not 100% sure when it actually started, but I was under the impression that it started around the citywide quarantine restrictions or shortly after.

[Shapeshifter]

Didn't that happen a bit ago? I had heard they were telling people to stay indoors and tell the authorities if their family member was sick. I've also seen something suggesting that there's been some sort of work restriction - like extended national holiday kind of stuff - which is supposed to be lifted in the next week or so so that the normal economy of the region can start recovering.




Not 100% sure when it actually started, but I was under the impression that it started around the citywide quarantine restrictions or shortly after.

They were sealing up residences and at times entire buildings on a case by case basis. Some places have rules in effect only one person from the household was allowed to leave at any one time.

Now it sounds like they have just locked the entire area down and no one is allowed to leave homes period.

someone summed it up as

The district of Zhangwan in Shiyan city, Hubei province will be applying martial law measures for at least the next 14 days.

All residential buildings will be enclosed and no civilians will be permitted to leave their residence.

All vehicles except medical, police, firefighting, rescue, cargo and the ones owned by governmental officials and medical personnel will not be allowed on the road.

Anyone attempting to leave their residence will be arrested.

Basic living needs, such as food, will be rationed and delivered to residents by the local government.

This will take effect on February 12 at 24:00 local time, and will be in effect for a minimum of 14 days. The period of control can be extended if the situation continue to develop.

[DaJMasta]

This will take effect on February 12 at 24:00 local time, and will be in effect for a minimum of 14 days. The period of control can be extended if the situation continue to develop.

Ouch, that time period is rough, but given the incubation period, I guess they feel like they're out of options for containing it further and just want to lock down.




I hope they can actually deliver on the promise of food and supplies, or things are going to get ugly before the end of two weeks.

[0091/2]

Ouch, that time period is rough, but given the incubation period, I guess they feel like they're out of options for containing it further and just want to lock down.




I hope they can actually deliver on the promise of food and supplies, or things are going to get ugly before the end of two weeks.

I hope they deliver on their promise fairly to people with low social credit rating.

[andino]

I still have a hard time believing the numbers out of China. I really wonder if the cases could be 3 to 4 times more than they are reporting.

[Athena]

I totally believe the numbers coming out of China, CNN and NSNBC. Why would they lie? The fact the CDC, HDS and Homeland and stopped all update messages since last week on the subject mean nothing after promising daily updates.

The radio said 250 died yesterday and just over 15,000 infected officially. Sounds legit to me for a reason to totally shut down over 100 billion dollars in economy and work on setting up a island to dump all the infected people.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coron...194700504.html

[AllexxisF1]

Get a grip.

Also, nice that you lumped in Communist China with CNN and MSNBC.

[mizzer]

I totally believe the numbers coming out of China, CNN and NSNBC. Why would they lie? The fact the CDC, HDS and Homeland and stopped all update messages since last week on the subject mean nothing after promising daily updates.

The radio said 250 died yesterday and just over 15,000 infected officially. Sounds legit to me for a reason to totally shut down over 100 billion dollars in economy and work on setting up a island to dump all the infected people.

We need a sarcasm font.

[nycdarkness]

So they numbers being reported on western media is much less than china's own state reporting within china. Yesterday there was a gain of just about 15k in confirmed cases. 14k of them in hubei.

[Athena]

We need a sarcasm font.

I don't think people get sarcasm any more

[AllexxisF1]

I don't think people get sarcasm any more

Whoops.

[Koenig]

So they numbers being reported on western media is much less than china's own state reporting within china. Yesterday there was a gain of just about 15k in confirmed cases. 14k of them in hubei.

We are getting the same reports too. You just have to remember that those of us in the west are 7-12 hours behind behind China so we are seeing them much later than you will.

That gain is due to how they are totaling the number now. They are not actually confirming if a patient tests positive for COVID-19 in Wuhan, they are only looking to see if they have the symptoms now when they add them to the tally. They are reporting that they have a shortage of the test kits so they have to resort to non-standard means for now. This only applies to Wuhan though not the rest of China.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/13/805519117/a-change-in-how-one-chinese-province-reports-coronavirus-adds-thousands-of-cases

[Capt. Picard]

It's summer where I'm at, here in the Southern hemisphere … in sunny Suff Africa (Cape Town … a little bit northwards of CT in a rural area).

I've got a slightly blocked nose. Do you think I have the Coronavirus????

[mizzer]

Whoops.

[mizzer]

It's summer where I'm at, here in the Southern hemisphere.

I've got a slightly blocked nose. Do you think I have the Coronavirus????

Naw. Just take your finger out of it.

[Capt. Picard]

Naw. Just take your finger out of it.

I had to do it in order to type this post.

It didn't help.

[Shapeshifter]

https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-handle-medical-supplies-2020-2

The coronavirus has reportedly spread to North Korea. Experts say the country isn't equipped to fight it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

China Expands Mass Roundup

Top officials in Beijing on Thursday expanded their mass roundup of sick or possibly infected people beyond Wuhan, the city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, to include other cities in Hubei Province that have been hit hard by the crisis, according to the state-run CCTV broadcaster.

The orders to begin mass quarantines in Wuhan came down from the government last week to “round up everyone who should be rounded up,” part of a “wartime” campaign to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak.

Apparently other areas/cities are now being placed under de facto martial law as well.

[Athena]

US company finds cure/vaccine in 3 hours after getting hands on virus.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/calif...123356925.html

Some good news!! ^_^

[bill dennison]

US company finds cure/vaccine in 3 hours after getting hands on virus.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/calif...123356925.html

Some good news!! ^_^

and 2 hours later China has stolen it

[Seyiji]

and 2 hours later China has stolen it

Good.

People need to get well Intellectual Property and profits be damned in this case.