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**Greasy** · Apr 15, 2020, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by logical View Post

Theyll get it back when you file. Better not stimulate too fast.

No doubt about that!

I still want a new card though, but apparently I'll be waiting about as long as we are for a freaking vaccine.

One good thing that has come out of this mess is my driving anxiety is now gone. I WANT to drive again. I would literally get in my truck right now and take a solo two hour drive just to gtfo my house. I used to get worked up at the thought of having to drive after my panic attack, but now I just want to. I'm going to keep that going so that when I do get out, I'm ready to roll.

**koralis** · Apr 15, 2020, 04:41 PM

Well, I find this a promising note.. if, as speculated, 15% of the population is already infected in dense areas and the bulk of them aren't hit hard enough to need a hospital, then we may be able to progress to the "herd immunity" stage without too much trauma. Unpleasantness, yes, but not nearly what a 50% hospitalization rate would be like.

1-in-7 New Yorkers May Have Already Gotten Covid-19

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-7-yorkers-may-already-191430969.html

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Of the 215 women who delivered babies at New York-Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center in Upper Manhattan from March 22 through April 4, 214 were tested for the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. Thirty-three of them, or more than 15%, tested positive, even though only a few had symptoms. In Gangelt, a German town that makes a big deal out of Karneval (aka Mardi Gras) and had a major coronavirus outbreak after this February’s festivities, 500 residents were tested for evidence of either the virus or the antibodies that indicate one has recovered from it, and 15% of them tested positive as well.Meanwhile, in Iceland, randomized testing of the population found 0.6% of those tested in late March and early April to have the disease. In San Miguel County in the mountains of Colorado (the ski town of Telluride is the county seat) widespread testing for coronavirus antibodies had as of Tuesday afternoon delivered a 0.6% positive ratio and an additional 1.5% of “borderline” results.What these preliminary findings (those from New York and Iceland were published in the peer-reviewed New England Journal of Medicine, the German data are from an as-yet-incomplete University of Bonn study and the Colorado numbers are simply posted daily on the county website) seem to show is that in places hit very hard by Covid-19, a surprisingly large number of people have been infected with it, and that in the rest of the world, very few have.This means that the occasional hopeful suggestions that the coronavirus is already widespread globally and herd immunity will be putting an end to the pandemic any minute now are most likely bunk. But it also means — and this was already the view of pretty much every epidemiologist whose work I have consulted — that the confirmed coronavirus cases reported by governments and tabulated in places like the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus map represent only the tip of the iceberg of actual infections, especially in disease hot spots. Another way of putting it is that if you live in rural Colorado and had a fever in February, that wasn’t the coronavirus. If you live in New York City and had a fever in late March, it probably was.Out of a population of 8.4 million, New York City had 111,424 confirmed Covid-19 cases as of Tuesday evening. If those pregnant women in Upper Manhattan are representative of the city as a whole, though, nearly 1.3 million New Yorkers have or have had the disease. That in turn implies a ratio of fatalities to infections of about 1% so far, not the 9.8% one gets dividing deaths by confirmed cases.A fatality rate of about 1% happens to be the estimate arrived at in the first major disease-severity study published back in February by the much-cited Covid-19 modeling team at Imperial College London, and is still used widely in projections of the disease’s potential impact. A more recent study by the same group puts the infection fatality rate in China at a slightly lower 0.66%, but New York City has a higher percentage of people 65 and older than China does, which given the disease’s much greater severity among senior citizens should drive the rate higher. In other words, my guesstimate that the actual number of Covid-19 cases in New York City is more than 10 times the number of confirmed cases squares with expert guesstimates of the severity of the disease. It also squares with my personal experience in the city over the past few weeks, with multiple friends and family members displaying symptoms of Covid-19, and hardly any of them getting tested.This should make us more confident about how to adjust official coronavirus data that, as Cathy O’Neil detailed here at Bloomberg Opinion a couple of days ago and Faye Flam did last month, is obviously quite incomplete. In places where the disease seems to be overwhelming the health-care system, like New York City over the past few weeks and Iran, Italy and Spain before that, it seems safe to assume that there are at least 10 times more actual Covid-19 infections than confirmed cases. There probably aren’t 100 times more (which in New York City would imply more infections than there are people), and in areas where either testing is more widespread or the spread of the disease better under control (or both) the ratio of infections to confirmed cases may be well below 10.Should this also make us more confident that New York City and other epicenters have seen the worst of the epidemic? Hard to say. In his interim report on the Gangelt study, University of Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck speculated that with 15% of the town’s population already infected with the disease, “the process of reaching herd immunity has already been initiated.” But the herd immunity threshold is usually estimated at around 60% to 70% of the population, meaning that there’s presumably still an awfully long way to go — and other German experts have been quite critical of Streeck’s herd-immunity argument and some aspects of his study’s design. It is interesting that studies of two very different communities both found a 15% infection rate, but that may just indicate how far Covid-19 can get in a population before its consequences become so obvious and dire that people start changing their behavior (and governments start ordering them to) in a way that limits its spread.One thing that is clear, though, is that the process of returning to some semblance of normal life is going to have some very different aspects in the U.S. and Europe than in East Asian countries where only a tiny fraction of the population was ever infected. Widespread blood tests, and certification of those who test positive for antibodies that indicate they’ve already had the disease, seem likely to become a big part of the process — with software company Bizagi announcing Wednesday that it had signed up Ernst & Young as a client for its new “CoronaPass” certification system “to help their employees and other businesses return to work.” This despite the fact that there are still lots of questions about (1) the reliability of such blood tests and (2) how much of an immunity the antibodies actually confer. As with so many aspects of the coronavirus fight, we’re going to be making big decisions on the basis of incomplete and probably flawed data because … what else are we supposed to do?This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Justin Fox is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering business. He was the editorial director of Harvard Business Review and wrote for Time, Fortune and American Banker. He is the author of “The Myth of the Rational Market.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Of the 215 women who delivered babies at New York-Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center in Upper Manhattan from March 22 through April 4, 214 were tested for the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. Thirty-three of them, or more than 15%, tested positive, even though only a few had symptoms. In Gangelt, a German town that makes a big deal out of Karneval (aka Mardi Gras) and had a major coronavirus outbreak after this February’s festivities, 500 residents were tested for evidence of either the virus or the antibodies that indicate one has recovered from it, and 15% of them tested positive as well.
…
Another way of putting it is that if you live in rural Colorado and had a fever in February, that wasn’t the coronavirus. If you live in New York City and had a fever in late March, it probably was.
…
Out of a population of 8.4 million, New York City had 111,424 confirmed Covid-19 cases as of Tuesday evening. If those pregnant women in Upper Manhattan are representative of the city as a whole, though, nearly 1.3 million New Yorkers have or have had the disease. That in turn implies a ratio of fatalities to infections of about 1% so far, not the 9.8% one gets dividing deaths by confirmed cases.

A fatality rate of about 1% happens to be the estimate arrived at in the first major disease-severity study published back in February by the much-cited Covid-19 modeling team at Imperial College London, and is still used widely in projections of the disease’s potential impact. A more recent study by the same group puts the infection fatality rate in China at a slightly lower 0.66%, but New York City has a higher percentage of people 65 and older than China does, which given the disease’s much greater severity among senior citizens should drive the rate higher. In other words, my guesstimate that the actual number of Covid-19 cases in New York City is more than 10 times the number of confirmed cases squares with expert guesstimates of the severity of the disease. It also squares with my personal experience in the city over the past few weeks, with multiple friends and family members displaying symptoms of Covid-19, and hardly any of them getting tested.

**nutcrackr** · Apr 15, 2020, 04:46 PM

USA had 30,206 new cases and 2,482 new deaths.

**YellowBeard** · Apr 15, 2020, 05:03 PM

Just got back from the grocery store and gotta say it was probably the most stressful store experience I've had in a long time. Mostly me being in my own dumb head, but you know how those things go. Hadn't been shopping for two weeks now so I was looking at getting out. Was pleasantly surprised that all but a few were wearing masks, nice to see that people are at least taking things seriously here.

Also all the aisles were set up for "one way" traffic.

**andino** · Apr 15, 2020, 10:33 PM

Went to Tractor Supply Company to get a few tomato cages. The first time out in 2 weeks. People were there with their 4 kids and no masks. No one here cares.

I purelled big time when I hit the car.

**Munkus** · Apr 16, 2020, 04:49 AM

I was out and about today getting some heat lamps for our new baby chicks and also hit up the grocery store and Costco. The roads were crowded, people were out and about as if nothing was wrong. Probably about 30% of the people were wearing masks. Everyone was social distancing, though, so that was good at least. Although cloth masks really don't protect against the virus. Costco had pallets full of TP and paper towels, limit 1 each per membership, and they were only allowing a small number of people in at a time. The place was almost empty while the line outside was huge. All the shelves were stocked well.

People in Montana do NOT like being told what to do by the government. They are a fiercely independent lot. It's part of what drew me here, but right now it's pissing me off.

**MasterGoa** · Apr 16, 2020, 04:54 AM

Cloth masks do not protect, no, but the reduced flow of breath or coughing is a HUGE improvement...
Just remember that 90% of the transmission is touching surfaces and then your face.

**Higgy10** · Apr 16, 2020, 04:59 AM

Originally posted by Greasy View Post

No doubt about that!

I still want a new card though, but apparently I'll be waiting about as long as we are for a freaking vaccine.

One good thing that has come out of this mess is my driving anxiety is now gone. I WANT to drive again. I would literally get in my truck right now and take a solo two hour drive just to gtfo my house. I used to get worked up at the thought of having to drive after my panic attack, but now I just want to. I'm going to keep that going so that when I do get out, I'm ready to roll.

Ive done that few times now already, pack the pen and go for a drive around the mountain or around the bay.

**Canesfan2020** · Apr 16, 2020, 05:22 AM

Check your backs and asses. The money isn't protected and people have been getting their stimulus grabbed by banks/debitors.

**acroig** · Apr 16, 2020, 05:31 AM

Originally posted by bill dennison View Post

a lot more won't take it because of black helicopters or something

Obama...... err Biden comin' for your guns!

**acroig** · Apr 16, 2020, 05:32 AM

Originally posted by andino View Post

People were there with their 4 kids and no masks. No one here cares.

I purelled big time when I hit the car.

Originally posted by Munkus View Post

People in Montana do NOT like being told what to do by the government. They are a fiercely independent lot. It's part of what drew me here, but right now it's pissing me off.

Is the mentality that this is a big city issue and they won't get it?

**Munkus** · Apr 16, 2020, 05:38 AM

Originally posted by acroig View Post

Is the mentality that this is a big city issue and they won't get it?

Not really. It's here and people have died from it. It's just that they value their privacy and independence. At least the life-long Montanans do. Transplants from the big city (like me) are more used to government oversight and therefore less resistant to it, but the natives are very much independent, pull-yerself-up-by-yer-bootstraps, guns & God kind of people. The nicest people you'd ever want to meet, but also very distrustful of government in general. They want to do things their own way, and they view this whole lock-down thing as a First Amendment infringement.

**MasterGoa** · Apr 16, 2020, 05:43 AM

I do not know this news source, but the images are compelling,
especially the hospital lineup...
[yt]sfSxne11Yjk[/yt]

**Jasef** · Apr 16, 2020, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by andino View Post

Went to Tractor Supply Company to get a few tomato cages. The first time out in 2 weeks. People were there with their 4 kids and no masks. No one here cares.

I purelled big time when I hit the car.

I hardly see anyone wearing masks over here.

**acroig** · Apr 16, 2020, 07:00 AM

Originally posted by Munkus View Post

The nicest people you'd ever want to meet, but also very distrustful of government in general. They want to do things their own way, and they view this whole lock-down thing as a First Amendment infringement.

OK but if things get out of hand because if their "distrust" then they don't require any gov help, right?

**Munkus** · Apr 16, 2020, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by acroig View Post

OK but if things get out of hand because if their "distrust" then they don't require any gov help, right?

Far be it from me to defend their logic. Just stating how many of them they think.

**acroig** · Apr 16, 2020, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by Munkus View Post

Far be it from me to defend their logic. Just stating how many of them they think.

Yeah not asking you to do that. I can respect someone wanting to "do their own thing" but there should be a cost. Like the Bundy rancher, I mean why are they exempt from law? JUst because they have big balls?

**globalist** · Apr 16, 2020, 11:30 AM

Meanwhile in Russia:

Ambulance Traffic Jams At Moscow Hospitals As COVID-19 Cases Surge

https://www.rferl.org/a/ambulance-traffic-jams-at-moscow-hospitals-as-covid-19-cases-surge/30553215.html

Ambulances have been forced to line up and wait for hours outside Moscow hospitals overwhelmed by the influx of suspected coronavirus patients. As Russia recorded its highest daily increase of patients, President Vladimir Putin conceded that the situation was getting worse every day.

**acroig** · Apr 16, 2020, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by globalist View Post

Meanwhile in Russia:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ambulance-tr.../30553215.html

I'm shocked! I thought Valdimir said there was no Covid in Russia?

**Munkus** · Apr 16, 2020, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by acroig View Post

I'm shocked! I thought Valdimir said there was no Covid in Russia?

**Higgy10** · Apr 16, 2020, 12:06 PM

Coronavirus stats worldwide: Compare Canada and other key nations

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-curves-compare-canada-and-other-key-nations-1.4881500

Visit CTVNews.ca for an interactive look at the COVID-19 outbreak in key countries.

is it to optimistic to think things are looking better?

**nutcrackr** · Apr 16, 2020, 05:59 PM

Slightly better day for USA. 29,567 new cases and 2,174 deaths (worldometers)

However the daily total for the world is not good. 95,022 cases which is the second worst day so far (April 03 was 101736). Other countries are adding to the tally now. The "peak" is going to be long. I have grave fears for Brazil and Algeria. Both countries could have 50 to 200k deaths...

**pax** · Apr 16, 2020, 08:00 PM

While the west works its way out of it at high cost the second and third world will come to its peak well after we get ours. May have to do with the simple fact the modern first world travels more so its spread here sooner. Summer is gonna be a scary time for most of the rest of the world as they dont have nearly the same resource we do for something like this. Even though we were highly negligent in prepping for it we were far more able to ramp up measures...

Health minister reviewing management of Canada's emergency stockpile | CBC News

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/experts-criticize-ottawa-for-destroying-millions-of-n95-masks-1.5530081?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar&fbclid=IwAR117M_akY1tSOnde4r1lHo3GSK6Xnv14aT5VHpjGoXR82HiwTAe2iNgdEg

Health Minister Patty Hajdu says Canada will be reviewing the way it manages its National Emergency Stockpile System following an investigation by CBC News.

Health Minister Patty Hajdu says Canada will be reviewing how it manages its National Emergency Stockpile System following an investigation by CBC News.

CBC News reported Wednesday that last year, the government of Canada threw out two million N95 masks and 440,000 medical gloves when it shut down an emergency stockpile warehouse in Regina.

Just last year... ****ing idiots. Anything to scrap a buck to give some billionaire a bit more dosh.

**Shapeshifter** · Apr 17, 2020, 05:04 PM

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/brazil-braces-onslaught-covid-19-cases-virus-advances-150712295.html

Brazil braces for onslaught of COVID-19 cases as virus advances

But the state of Sao Paulo alone is expecting 111,000 deaths over six months, nearly equal to the entire worldwide toll to date.

**nutcrackr** · Apr 18, 2020, 02:06 AM

And Sao Paulo is only like 1/5 of Brazil.

**Higgy10** · Apr 18, 2020, 02:47 AM

its going to ravage central and south america, third world conditions for the most part and almost no medical care

**Lazy8s** · Apr 18, 2020, 11:07 AM

I was notified of my cousin's death due to C-19 today. LPN.

My town is under curfew now as well. It's beginning to feel just a bit Orwellian lol.

**MasterGoa** · Apr 18, 2020, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by Lazy8s View Post

I was notified of my cousin's death due to C-19 today. LPN.

My town is under curfew now as well. It's beginning to feel just a bit Orwellian lol.

It's not that bad. Because of asymptomatic, they need 14 days to figure out who has it.

After that, it can restart. Most places see declines now, except the black hole
that is China and Sweden.

Sweden will have an interesting choice coming soon...

**bill dennison** · Apr 18, 2020, 12:01 PM

had a scare

my father 91 with a heart valve replacement three years ago and weak kidneys had a 100.6 fever cough and shortness of breath gut pain

had to take him down to be tested Thursday they did EKG and chest x ray also but thank god he came back negative today

fever was gone yesterday and today so looks like maybe just a stomach bug

**acroig** · Apr 18, 2020, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Lazy8s View Post

I was notified of my cousin's death due to C-19 today. LPN.

My town is under curfew now as well. It's beginning to feel just a bit Orwellian lol.

My condolences bud.

**Android1** · Apr 18, 2020, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by Lazy8s View Post

I was notified of my cousin's death due to C-19 today. LPN.

My town is under curfew now as well. It's beginning to feel just a bit Orwellian lol.

I am very sorry for your loss, Lazy8s.

**bill dennison** · Apr 18, 2020, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by acroig View Post

My condolences bud.

Originally posted by Android1 View Post

I am very sorry for your loss, Lazy8s.

same

**Android1** · Apr 18, 2020, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by bill dennison View Post

had a scare

my father 91 with a heart valve replacement three years ago and weak kidneys had a 100.6 fever cough and shortness of breath gut pain

had to take him down to be tested Thursday they did EKG and chest x ray also but thank god he came back negative today

fever was gone yesterday and today so looks like maybe just a stomach bug

Wow, that's a relief. I am glad that he is doing all right.

I apologize for missing this before.

**Lazy8s** · Apr 18, 2020, 12:45 PM

Thanks for the condolences guys

Bill, I am so glad your Dad is ok, good news

**Shapeshifter** · Apr 18, 2020, 01:55 PM

sorry to hear about your cousin

**Munkus** · Apr 18, 2020, 02:04 PM

So sorry to hear that, Lazy8s.

I was talking to a guy in the grocery store the other day (6 ft apart, of course) and he was saying "I don't personally know anyone who has the virus or knows someone else who has it. I think it's all a hoax."

I have never wanted to punch someone more than I did right then. I almost asked him what his opinion was on vaccines and climate change, but then I took a look at my signature and reminded myself that sometimes the most loving thing you can do for someone is to remain quiet.

**dodger** · Apr 18, 2020, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Lazy8s View Post

I was notified of my cousin's death due to C-19 today. LPN.

My town is under curfew now as well. It's beginning to feel just a bit Orwellian lol.

Ouch, sorry for your loss. Haven't heard anyone immediate die from this thing yet. Seeing those pictures of that FL beach that re-opened doesn't give me a lot of hope though I've heard people were better behaved on day 2.

**bill dennison** · Apr 18, 2020, 03:02 PM

meanwhile in hong kong

Hong Kong activists arrested over last year's democracy rallies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200418-hong-kong-activists-arrested-over-last-year-s-democracy-rallies-1

Police in Hong Kong carried out a sweeping operation against high-profile democracy campaigners on Saturday, arresting 15 activists on charges related to massive protests that rocked the Asian financial…

China is committing human rights abuses in Hong Kong

But it does not end there. In February, the Hong Kong government approved the expenditure of an extra 25.8 billion Hong Kong dollars [$3.3 billion] on police forces, with its budget on tear gas and rubber bullets tripled, according to official data.

All of these clues, I believe, suggest that China plans another crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

China is committing human rights abuses in Hong Kong

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/china-committing-human-rights-abuses-hong-kong-200408083726463.html

The international community must intervene because this is about the expansion of authoritarianism everywhere.

**Greasy** · Apr 18, 2020, 03:10 PM

China can eat a dick. Their govt covered this entire thing up, and exported it. It's about time their people revolt, and take back their country!

**MasterGoa** · Apr 18, 2020, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Lazy8s View Post

I was notified of my cousin's death due to C-19 today. LPN.

My town is under curfew now as well. It's beginning to feel just a bit Orwellian lol.

Damn I do not know why but I only saw the second phrase...

My sympathies Lazy8

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