Official Thread: Coronavirus "COVID-19"

[Munkus]

Went to the grocery store today and was surprised to see how well stocked they were (except for TP of course....still boggles my mind). Picked up some fresh fruits and veggies, local cream for coffee, and chicken wings for dinner tonight. I did wear an N95 mask just in case I'm carrying something that my son brought home from his job at the hospital, and made sure I wiped down the shopping cart with the alcohol wipes they have available at the entrance. I'm more concerned about transmitting something than catching it. I just assume that will happen eventually, but I think I'm healthy enough to be in the 80%.

Life going on normally for now.

[kaarel]

And why don't we have data regarding the infected numbers current active status? Probably because once a person becomes infected, and are added to the totals, they are no longer a viable talking point.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Here are most of the numbers for US. Daily new cases is the most useful graph.
You can also find active cases there. Deaths/recovered ratio is just awful right now - 400/178

Of course this data is not 100% accurate because it depends on how country is reporting it.

There is probably some data missing for yesterday, that's why reported new cases was lower compared to previous day. Today is just mindbogglingly bad for US.

[Dave]

Ohio is now under a shelter in place order (effective 11:59pm Monday)

[DeathKnight]

Ohio is now under a shelter in place order (effective 11:59pm Monday)

Most are already doing this. It's just "official" now. I still have to go out at least once a day though for animal care responsibilities.

[xCLAVEx]

Most are already doing this. It's just "official" now. I still have to go out at least once a day though for animal care responsibilities.

Have to walk the doggy eh?

[DeathKnight]

Have to walk the doggy eh?

To take care of someone else's horses and cats.

[DeathKnight]

Deaths/recovered ratio is just awful right now - 400/178

Hardly any mild cases (which are 97% of current 31K+ active cases) have run their course to get the recovered total far and above the death total. The ratio is going to drastically change for the better.

[bill dennison]

Ohio is now under a shelter in place order (effective 11:59pm Monday)

yea my sister just called

she is in Ohio also, Columbus area

and i just lost all but 4 of my N95's

my niece is a nurse in Ohio so i just sent her all the rest i had

[Munkus]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Here are most of the numbers for US. Daily new cases is the most useful graph.
You can also find active cases there. Deaths/recovered ratio is just awful right now - 400/178

Of course this data is not 100% accurate because it depends on how country is reporting it.

There is probably some data missing for yesterday, that's why reported new cases was lower compared to previous day. Today is just mindbogglingly bad for US.

I'm not sure how to read this, but it looks like an overall 4% mortality rate if you add the number of open cases to the number of closed, and then divide the number of total deaths by that sum. How does this compare to the common flu? H1N1? Does it even matter? Still way too high, but it's hard to tell by the numbers just how dire it all is.

[Pr3tty F1y]

I'm not sure how to read this, but it looks like an overall 4% mortality rate if you add the number of open cases to the number of closed, and then divide the number of total deaths by that sum. How does this compare to the common flu? H1N1? Does it even matter? Still way too high, but it's hard to tell by the numbers just how dire it all is.

You really need to look at it by country as every country's healthcare system varies and the availability and quality of healthcare can drastically affect outcomes.

For the United States:

Coronavirus Cases:
32,356

Deaths:
414

That is a 1.3% case fatality rate - which is superb given what other countries have seen.

[Munkus]

You really need to look at it by country as every country's healthcare system varies and the availability and quality of healthcare can drastically affect outcomes.

For the United States:

Coronavirus Cases:
32,356

Deaths:
414

That is a 1.3% case fatality rate - which is superb given what other countries have seen.

[BikeRacks]

I'm not sure how to read this, but it looks like an overall 4% mortality rate if you add the number of open cases to the number of closed, and then divide the number of total deaths by that sum. How does this compare to the common flu? H1N1? Does it even matter? Still way too high, but it's hard to tell by the numbers just how dire it all is.

Keep in mind that is known cases. Testing thus far in the US has been generally only been for folks with severe symptoms, important people or those who've traveled.

Countries like Germany are testing many more people, and the numbers look better because of that. Their mortality rate is somewhere around .0034 or .34%

Mark my words, the mortality rate when this is all over in the US will be below 1% and hopefully for many other countries.

Still a very serious situation, but some of the numbers being thrown around simply aren't accurate.

[NWR_Midnight]

You really need to look at it by country as every country's healthcare system varies and the availability and quality of healthcare can drastically affect outcomes.

For the United States:

Coronavirus Cases:
32,356

Deaths:
414

That is a 1.3% case fatality rate - which is superb given what other countries have seen.

As I already mentioned, that mortality rate is not accurate, as most of those deaths are from cases detected up to 2 weeks ago (when we only had roughly 1000 cases reported). the influx of cases this week is going to lead to an influx of deaths in a week or two. We won't have an accurate mortality rate until new cases stop or at least drastically slow down, and a few weeks pass by. New York's numbers have skyrocketed, and their medical facilities are beyond capacity (why there is a Navy medical ship in route to them)...

[xCLAVEx]

More good news;

COVID-19: Recovered patients have partially reduced lung function
Chinese researchers have found fluid- or debris-filled sacs in the lungs of those who were infected by COVID-19. Scans suggest sustained organ damage.

More than 86,000 people worldwide have now recovered from the lung disease COVID-19. In those cases, the infection manifested itself in mild to moderate form, or it is because these patients received excellent medical care.

This number can provide solace, on the one hand, but on the other there is still little information about how these people are doing after the infection has run its course.

With great relief and joy, some convalescents describe how they have survived the physical, but above all psychological stress: the healing of symptoms, the agonizing uncertainty, and the gruelling isolation phase. They are happy to be immune to SARS-CoV-2 after having survived the illness. Relief is often mixed with apprehension — for instance, with regard to the many people who have not yet been infected.

As the new coronavirus generally affects the lower respiratory tract, most of those infected exhibit a dry cough, shortness of breath or pneumonia.

Now researchers in Hong Kong have said that recovered coronavirus patients can be left with damaged lungs.

A small study of 12 patients discharged from hospital showed that two or three had reduced lung function. However, it is too early to confirm any long-term effects.

"In some patients, lung function could decline by about 20 to 30% after recovery," says Dr. Owen Tsang Tak-yin, medical director of the Infectious Diseases Centre at Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong.

Computer tomography have shown fluid- or debris-filled sacs in the lungs, which may get progressively worse as the illness develops.

The findings from Hong Kong confirm very early investigations from Wuhan in early February 2020. In a recent study, scientists from Zhongnam Hospital of Wuhan University analyzed 140 lung scans of COVID-19 patients and found a ground glass opacity in both lungs of each patient.

Further investigations of the recovered COVID-19 patients must now be conducted to show whether they have developed pulmonary fibrosis — scarring in the lungs. Over time, the scar tissue can destroy the normal lung and make it hard for oxygen to get into the blood. Low oxygen levels (and the stiff scar tissue itself) can cause shortness of breath, particularly during physical exertion.

Lung fibrosis cannot be cured because the scarred changes in the lung tissue do not regress. But the progression of pulmonary fibrosis can be delayed and sometimes even stopped if detected in time.

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-recov...ion/a-52859671

So basically there is a high chance that even surviving "mild" cases of this virus could produce lung damage even after recovery. While it's too early to tell the long term effects of those who recovered, this is definitely something you want to avoid contracting at all costs, even if you are "low risk".

[pax]

Like for smokers who quit there may be some time frame for lungs to recover in the 3-6 months or longer...

[bill dennison]

Like for smokers who quit there may be some time frame for lungs to recover in the 3-6 months or longer...

is 15 years

i know i'm going on 11

4 more years before i cough up my first cigarette

[BikeRacks]

More good news;



So basically there is a high chance that even surviving "mild" cases of this virus could produce lung damage even after recovery. While it's too early to tell the long term effects of those who recovered, this is definitely something you want to avoid contracting at all costs, even if you are "low risk".

(From the article) "A small study of 12 patients discharged from hospital showed that two or three had reduced lung function"

12 people is a small sample size, I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet.

[Crawdaddy79]

It's something that's on my mind. The headlines were plastered with X-rays of lungs with scar tissue from recovered patients about a week ago. This thing may be permanently damaging peoples' lungs.

The mild cases, no. The ones who end up in the hospital and end up receiving life-saving care, yes. It adds up.

[bill dennison]

Best Buy to Close All Retail Stores; Will Switch to Delivery and Pickup Only Due to Coronavirus Outbreak

https://wccftech.com/best-buy-closin...only-covid-19/

[xCLAVEx]

(From the article) "A small study of 12 patients discharged from hospital showed that two or three had reduced lung function"

12 people is a small sample size, I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet.

No conclusions were jumped, but it's something to keep in mind.

[nutcrackr]

USA has had a 17% positive rate on tests for the last 4 days.

[Arrowhead]

https://wccftech.com/best-buy-closin...only-covid-19/

We are STILL not moving fast enough into lockdown. WTF are they waiting for? A few thousand dead bodies?

It's like ripping off a bandaid. The faster we do this, the faster we'll get over it.

[Crawdaddy79]

We are STILL not moving fast enough into lockdown. WTF are they waiting for? A few thousand dead bodies?

It's like ripping off a bandaid. The faster we do this, the faster we'll get over it.

Disagree. One case can turn into 10, then 100. The unknowns about this thing are too vast. Just in the last week the news is saying, "Oh yeah - roughly half the people infected have gastro issues."

A known fast spread combined with the other known "you can spread it without knowing you have it" equals an impossible containment. You can close grocery stores and food deliveries, and even then you'll have the police/militia enforcing the lockdowns getting infected and infecting.

Flattening the curve sounds like a good strategy, until you realize we'll have to be on lockdown for a year to accomplish it.

I'm seriously considering embracing Jasef's approach. **** it.

[NWR_Midnight]

We are STILL not moving fast enough into lockdown. WTF are they waiting for? A few thousand dead bodies?

It's like ripping off a bandaid. The faster we do this, the faster we'll get over it.

They don't want to be the "bad guy". The governor here in Washington pleaded for people to do the right thing after talking about how people aren't, instead of putting a stay in place order out. A strict stay in place order is the only thing that will slow this down because there are to many who won't do it otherwise.

[Arrowhead]

Disagree. One case can turn into 10, then 100. The unknowns about this thing are too vast. Just in the last week the news is saying, "Oh yeah - roughly half the people infected have gastro issues."

A known fast spread combined with the other known "you can spread it without knowing you have it" equals an impossible containment. You can close grocery stores and food deliveries, and even then you'll have the police/militia enforcing the lockdowns getting infected and infecting.

Flattening the curve sounds like a good strategy, until you realize we'll have to be on lockdown for a year to accomplish it.

I'm seriously considering embracing Jasef's approach. **** it.

If China is to be believed, it looks like lockdown works for this. Now they are more worried about us bringing it back to them.

[bill dennison]

If China is to be believed, it looks like lockdown works for this. Now they are more worried about us bringing it back to them.

not on my life

their count stopped to fast and then very few after

i think they just stopped mass testing

[Crawdaddy79]

If China is to be believed, it looks like lockdown works for this. Now they are more worried about us bringing it back to them.

China's numbers certainly look promising, but I'm of the position that they can't be believed. They very strictly control the information to their own people. It's not a far jump to know that they control the information they release to the world. Remember how they convinced server manufacturers to install chips that reach back to the China gov, and after two years some nerd in the US found it by accident that the schematic didn't match the physical hardware? Would not surprise me at all if they're doing the same to the COVID test kits, causing them turning up false negatives.

The big picture stats I want to see - overall deaths year over year, with trends compared to this year with COVID. All countries individually. I'm of a mind that it will be slightly higher for the year, but certainly not bad enough to voluntarily shut down economies.

[OverclockN']

not on my life

their count stopped to fast and then very few after

i think they just stopped mass testing

So did we. The CDC guidelines specifically tell people not to come in to the doctor if they can manage their own symptoms. If they never go in, who's counting them? Our numbers are a complete sham as much as anyone else's.

[bill dennison]

So did we. The CDC guidelines specifically tell people not to come in to the doctor if they can manage their own symptoms. If they never go in, who's counting them? Our numbers are a complete sham as much as anyone else's.

we have not ramped up to full yet they had and seemed to have stopped

we have way too many hypochondriacs with money and with just a stuffy nose that are running out to be tested and using up tests and coming up negative

but i would not trust anything China says at this point

why else are they tossing out all western journalists

...........


i grabbed a Finger Pulse Oximeter for my parents and if their blood oxygen levels go down and have the other signs they go in .

other than that if you go in to see if you have it and don't you may have just exposed yourself to it

[kaarel]

China's numbers certainly look promising, but I'm of the position that they can't be believed. They very strictly control the information to their own people. It's not a far jump to know that they control the information they release to the world. Remember how they convinced server manufacturers to install chips that reach back to the China gov, and after two years some nerd in the US found it by accident that the schematic didn't match the physical hardware? Would not surprise me at all if they're doing the same to the COVID test kits, causing them turning up false negatives.

The big picture stats I want to see - overall deaths year over year, with trends compared to this year with COVID. All countries individually. I'm of a mind that it will be slightly higher for the year, but certainly not bad enough to voluntarily shut down economies.

So everybody is lying - Taiwan, Hong-Kong, South-Korea, Japan ...?
Our western civilization is failing because we are ignorant and egocentric. World is moving on and we are standing still.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...t-task/608023/

As I already mentioned, that mortality rate is not accurate, as most of those deaths are from cases detected up to 2 weeks ago (when we only had roughly 1000 cases reported). the influx of cases this week is going to lead to an influx of deaths in a week or two. We won't have an accurate mortality rate until new cases stop or at least drastically slow down, and a few weeks pass by. New York's numbers have skyrocketed, and their medical facilities are beyond capacity (why there is a Navy medical ship in route to them)...

Exactly. 31000 out of all cases (32000) are active cases so they are like Schrödinger's cats - they are not dead nor they are cured.

I'm not sure how to read this, but it looks like an overall 4% mortality rate if you add the number of open cases to the number of closed, and then divide the number of total deaths by that sum. How does this compare to the common flu? H1N1? Does it even matter? Still way too high, but it's hard to tell by the numbers just how dire it all is.

There is no point looking at mortality rate in US yet as NWR_midnight explained earlier. Most useful graphs right now are 'daily new cases' and 'daily new deaths'. Their progression helps us predict what's ahead of us. It seems that average daily multiplier in US is around 1.3x. You can use Excel and multiply every previous value with 1.3x and extrapolate to the future.

[Lazy8s]

Family member's close friend has tested positive. She will likely be getting tested soon too.

They've been in close contact with my Mother, who starts chemo Wednesday. We're all part of her support, and we've all been together several times recently.

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.

[Sundance Kid V2]

Family member's close friend has tested positive. She will likely be getting tested soon too.

They've been in close contact with my Mother, who starts chemo Wednesday. We're all part of her support, and we've all been together several times recently.

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.

Oi.. hoping for the best dude.

Im also scared for my parents. They are above 60...

[Lazy8s]

Oi.. hoping for the best dude.

Im also scared for my parents. They are above 60...

Thanks Sundance - I hope your folks are all set with supplies and support. It's enough to get a guy rattled when loved ones are in the line of fire...

[Sundance Kid V2]

Thanks Sundance - I hope your folks are all set with supplies and support. It's enough to get a guy rattled when loved ones are in the line of fire...

Yip.. they are ok. But like you say.. loved ones in the line of fire is scary AF!

[MasterGoa]

Family member's close friend has tested positive. She will likely be getting tested soon too.

They've been in close contact with my Mother, who starts chemo Wednesday. We're all part of her support, and we've all been together several times recently.

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.

Do you have an oxygen tank for flying over 140?

If so, I would make sure it is full...

[Lazy8s]

I'm grounded.

[wabbitslayer]

Lightbulb inside the refrigerator went out.

I can't deal with this **** anymore.



(that really isn't as flippant or as joking as it might sound)

[Lazy8s]

Lightbulb inside the refrigerator went out.

I can't deal with this **** anymore.



(that really isn't as flippant or as joking as it might sound)

I hope you and yours are ok wabbit...

[MaxSt]

Damn!

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-sho...e-in-hamptons/

It’s all-out class warfare in the Hamptons.

The year-round residents, the locals who serve and clean and landscape for the super-rich in the summertime — and put up with all manner of entitlement and terrible behavior in exchange for good money — are silent no more.

“There’s not a vegetable to be found in this town right now,” says one resident of Springs, a working-class pocket of East Hampton. “It’s these elitist people who think they don’t have to follow the rules.”

It’s not just the drastic food shortage out here. Every aspect of life, most crucially medical care, is under strain from the sudden influx of rich Manhattanites panic-fleeing, bringing along their disdain and disregard for the little people — and in some cases, knowingly bringing coronavirus.

The Springs resident says her friend, a nurse out here, reported that a wealthy Manhattan woman who tested positive called tiny Southampton Hospital to say she was on her way and needed treatment.

The woman was told to stay in Manhattan.

Instead, she allegedly got on public transportation, telling no one of her condition. Then she showed up at Southampton Hospital, demanding admittance.

“Someone else took a private jet to East Hampton and did not tell anybody ’til he landed,” the resident says. “That’s the most horrendous aspect. The virus is already here, and we don’t have any medical resources.”

“We’re at the end of Long Island, the tip, and waves of people are bringing this s–t,” says lifelong Montauker James Katsipis. “We should blow up the bridges. Don’t let them in.”

It began one week ago. First came the social media posts, the rich showing off their fleets of SUVs — three to a family sometimes — with fresh and canned food bought in the city, announcing they were headed to their second homes out east, where they immediately ravaged every supermarket and stripped the shelves bare.

Then they hit P.C. Richard & Son in Southampton to rush-order extra freezers to hoard all that food — 700 orders last weekend alone. When one customer was asked what size freezer she wanted, she said, “I don’t care. It just needs to be big enough that I can hide in it.”

That makes no sense, but nothing out here has made sense recently.

Here’s something that never gets mentioned or seen in coverage of the Hamptons, whether it’s the news or gossip columns or “Sex and the City” reruns: There are actually poor people who live here. There are three trailer parks (one, of course, is already going luxury). There are food pantries for the needy, and that includes schoolkids.

Normally, the haves and the have-nots converge only in summer, and everyone plays their parts. No more.

“A big majority [of the rich] are truly disrespectful, and in my opinion don’t deserve to enjoy Montauk,” says local fisherman Chris Albronda, 33. He wasn’t shocked by the infected woman who deliberately came out here, even after she was told not to.

“That small act reflects a lot of what we deal with in the summer,” he says. “Selfish. Disrespectful. Absolutely horrifying.”

“I’ve seen breathtaking acts of selfishness,” says lifelong East Hamptonite Jason LaGarenne, 42. “I saw one guy walk out [of a grocery store] with a cart full of carrots. Just carrots. Another cart was full of bottles of water and orange anti-microbial dish soap. If you’re a ridiculous person in general, I guess your ridiculousness is amplified by something like this.”

Doubly so if you’re greedy and self-centered. It amazes locals how little the wealthy have truly taken notice of their existence, that it hasn’t occurred to them that they, with limitless resources, will never go hungry, not even in a pandemic.

“We went into the Amagansett IGA yesterday,” says local realtor Romaine Gordon. “There must have been two frozen pizzas left. I’ve never seen anything like this.”

The offseason, October through June, is sparsely populated and can be very isolating. During that time, local grocers only stock food and supplies for a severely reduced population. There is no FreshDirect, no Whole Foods, no door-to-door food delivery.

Most year-rounders don’t have the ability to drop, as The Post reported, $8,000 in one shot at gourmet grocery Citarella, or import hundreds of pounds of meat as another overlord just did, then stash their hoard in the extra brand-new freezers they just bought.

This is the kind of place where a wealthy homeowner rents out his house in the summer and tells his cleaning staff, at the end of the season, to throw out all the perfectly good, sealed, unopened food and beverages in all three of his refrigerators — true story.

“It’s horrible,” says Gordon. “Think of all the older people who have to wait for their Social Security checks or food stamps. Then they get the courage to go, and there’s nothing to buy. Every person out here doesn’t have the luxury of laying down their debit card whenever they choose. I saw old people at King Kullen shell-shocked with their empty baskets. These poor people — they’re literally risking their lives to go to the grocery store, and you go home with what? It’s really upsetting.”

And after the rich panic-fleers bought all the available food, they did not hunker down at home. Instead, they went out partying.

“The biggest problem — what really gets me going — is that they think because they’re all the way out [here], they’re safe,” says Katsipis. “But some of those people are sick, and they’re going out to bars and acting like they’re on vacation. What do these city people think — we have some imaginary, magical bubble?”

As of last weekend, SoulCycle and Flywheel were packed, as were bars, restaurants, clothing stores and coffee shops. As of Monday, “there was a line out the door at [East Hampton restaurant] Mary’s and Starbucks,” says the Springs resident. “If you’re going to make such a hoopla over leaving the city and hoarding your food, why not stay in your million-dollar mansion on the waterfront? Don’t go to Starbucks! I’m sure you have a coffeemaker.”

Last weekend, Albronda says, “there were a couple of restaurants so overcrowded that the police had to come and thin them out. No one’s taking this as seriously as they should be. They’re just being selfish. If this disease spreads out here, that will be why.”

And a fair amount of these panic-fleers don’t own homes out here. “We started early,” says East Hampton realtor Dawn Neway, who works with her sister Diana. “We have a lot of high-end clients, and we noticed when the private schools were closing, before the panic, they weren’t going to travel. They were canceling trips to Aspen for spring break. We had one client call, budget range from $400,000 to $1 million, year-round, starting now. I’ve never seen anything like this.”

Gordon has had a similar experience. Her call volume really picked up last weekend. “It was a frenzy, non-stop, Friday-Saturday-Sunday, early morning to late night,” she says. Gordon says every call went like this:

“Do you have anything in a few hours?”

“Tonight?”

“Tomorrow?”

“We don’t care where it’s at. Any price point.”

And because it’s still offseason, “it’s not like these homes are ready to rock and roll,” Gordon says. “But I know people who had a $300,000 bidding war [for their home], now through summer.”

Katsipis has friends who caretake these homes in the winter months, and requests from sudden renters astounded them.

“The weirdest,” Katsipis says, “is they all want their pools heated. It was 28 degrees the other night, and they want them heated to 88.”

Translation: Even though the bars and restaurants have shut down, these people are here to party.

Even if, when they do get sick, there will be nowhere to go.

“That’s my big fear,” Albronda says. “Everybody was out in big groups. It was like summertime came early. We’re going to see an incredible influx of disease spreading, and our hospital isn’t as prepared to handle it as a large-scale one.”

Southampton Hospital, which serves East Hampton, Bridgehampton, Sag Harbor, Noyack, Amagansett, Hampton Bays, Montauk, and of course Southampton, has 125 beds. Only eight are ICU. While a spokeswoman told The Post the hospital is preparing for more, locals here aren’t encouraged.

“How many [ventilators] do you think they have in there?” asks Katsipis. “Ten? Twenty? The city has a lot more hospitals and, not for nothing, better care. Southampton is just not equipped for a pandemic.”

“That hospital is extremely small,” says the Springs resident, who was treated there extensively last year and says there are only four quarantine rooms. “You already get treated in the ER hallway in the summer. We don’t have any medical resources here.”

Compounding the problem is the lack of ambulances. Each firehouse has only two or three, and firefighters and paramedics are not on site — when a call comes in, they’re alerted at home, and they must make the drive to the firehouse and then to the emergency. And all East End firefighters are volunteers.

“It’s a state of emergency now,” says a spokeswoman for an East End fire department.

Still, every local who spoke to The Post said their community has one thing going for it that the rich don’t have: They really look out for each other.

“I see the bartenders and the waitresses — the people out of work — volunteering to feed the elderly,” says LaGarenne. “We don’t really see that from the types of people hoarding supplies. But I guess that’s to be expected.”

[wabbitslayer]

I hope you and yours are ok wabbit...

Thanks. And Yours!

Wife is freaking out b/c the brother of one of the night shift sergeants at one of the jails I go to tested positive. I haven't been there since 3/12 and never see the night shift anyway, but still....

for those of you (like me) living outside urban/suburban areas.....does it feel like every day, it creeps just a little bit closer to you?