Official Thread: Coronavirus "COVID-19"

[Dungeoncrawler]

From the news briefing on Friday from Mr. DeWine, I would expect him to put non-essential businesses on lockdown in Ohio sooner than later.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241159977974353924

[Dave]

Yup, expecting Ohio to be under lockdown by mid next week at the latest.

[kaarel]

CFR is estimated to be around 0,6% if modern medical system is not overwhelmed.

There are two main reasons why Italy has higher CFR:
- medical system is unable to deal with the load
- non-critical cases are not tested (due to overload)

Most precise way to extrapolate is using CFR and average days from exposure to death that is 17 days.
US's medical system is currently not overloaded. So let's say that CFR is 0,6%.

First cv death in US took place on 29.02.2020
Number of deaths on 20.03.2020 was 256
Thus average growth multiplier has been in this period 1.3195x (256=1(x)^20 x=1,3195)
On 03.03.2020 256/0,006=42667 contracted virus from whom 256 are those who die 17 days later.

Extrapolating things using currently known multiplier - on 20.03.2020 4,75 million people contracted virus in US from whom 28519 will die after 17 days.

Quarantine lowers the multiplier making things vastly better.
If medical system will be overwhelmed CFR will rise rapidly, making things far worse.

[acroig]

and i am the sole care taker of my 91 and 92 year old parents who can't drive or go to the store or the doctor on their own
both with heart conductions
hell so do i
plus a 97 year old uncle on his own in montana

so excuse the **** out of me if i don't like to think of the worst every god damn minute of the day
i do anyway now, hell my father fell two days ago and could not get on his own

and so i hope one of these drugs may work and we get time to use them before it gets as bad here as Italy

and damn the ****ing cost we can think of that later like my uncle and parents did in ww2

Yeah bud, I get it and understand. We need a little of both right now, hope and sobriety. Pour $ and salvage the system then worry about economic issues later. Lots of people will be unemployed soon thanks to covid an we all gottta pitch in together.

[Munkus]

According to some sources, Germany is just not reporting the deaths the same way as Italy is.

Germany will only report a death when there was no other comorbidity besides Covid. While Italy will report a case even when Covid was not be the direct cause of death. Only 18% of Italy deaths were directly caused by Covid:



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

This is actually good information. It's not clear how many deaths are directly caused by COVID-19 vs it being a contributing factor due to other comorbidities. It's the same with the "regular" flu of course, but it makes reporting the actual death rate problematic.

What I gather is that, in the absence of comorbidities, COVID-19 has a similar death rate to H1N1, SARS, etc. When you factor in comorbidities, the death rate spikes higher than those viruses. So, in otherwise healthy people, COVID-19 poses little risk of death, BUT it is far more contagious and therefore the risk of transmission is higher. Young, healthy people who think it won't affect them are not taking into account that they can carry the virus home to Mom, Dad, Grandma & Grandpa - who may be much more likely to die from it.

[Lazy8s]

Yeah bud, I get it and understand. We need a little of both right now, hope and sobriety. Pour $ and salvage the system then worry about economic issues later. Lots of people will be unemployed soon thanks to covid an we all gottta pitch in together.

[Capt. Picard]

I've made some preparations for the lengthened school holiday and my self-imposed isolation.

I'm a bit concerned about my mix. I don't think it's enough. Seems like I'll have to invert the Brandy / Coke ratio.

Please don't worry about me. I'll be fine. I have got a safe way to get some more brandy.

[Koenig]

My step cousin who is 36 just posted that he tested positive for it. He lives in Atlanta but got it in Miami.

My results finally came back 6 days later. I tested positive for COVID-19. I'm fine now. I still cannot take a full breath and I hope that improves.
Pretty much all of my friends got it together in Miami at the Winter Party. I don't hold the event or anyone responsible. It was really just before everything started being canceled. My symptoms were on the severe side of many in my group. Some had a slight cough and just felt tired, along with an inability to taste and tested positive. Some were like me had rolling fevers up to 102, extreme shortness of breath, ears ringing, no taste, and sleeping in puddles of sweat for 5 days.
My experience started with a strange, but not uncomfortable, shortness of breath. I didn't feel sick until maybe 12 hours later. Then it came and went in strong waves. Fooling me I was out of the woods a few times.
It appears to be highly contagious. I have been self-isolating since returning home. It was more intense than the flu (for me). You don't want your grandparents to get it. I hope we can stop this now. If we don't and it lingers till we get a vaccine I think it will be taking a huge toll on lives and the economy. Please take it seriously.

[SirBaron]

Work wise "i'm" fine plus my Company is pretty well off money wise so that's not a massive issue as long as it doesn't progress past this year.

The flower side of my firm has cut back alot now as go figure not many people wipe their ass with flowers (yet).

However the Tomato side where I work (large industrial sized greenhouse *peak season we ship 70+ton a week of tomatoes*) has shops crying for purchases though they're abit early as we wont do first cuttings for another few weeks yet *and that's only a couple of sectors of the greenhouse as they don't get all planted at the same time.

We have had in the retail side of the firm (1KM from where I work) huge garden retailer a Covid19 positive customer shopping week or so ago. Plus people are slowly starting to dissapear, one yesterday went home with a fever... so yeah Only a matter of time.

Germany may be densily populated in large towns, but where I live is basically very sparsly populated. (Emsland)

Also German Healthcare is pretty hardcore, which is one benefit of having everyone being required to have a Health Insurance to live/work in the country.

[Capt. Picard]

My step cousin who is 36 just posted that he tested positive for it. He lives in Atlanta but got it in Miami.

Damn ^

[SirBaron]

My step cousin who is 36 just posted that he tested positive for it. He lives in Atlanta but got it in Miami.

Damn that sucks, sending my hopes of a speed recovery!

[Munkus]

This is actually good information. It's not clear how many deaths are directly caused by COVID-19 vs it being a contributing factor due to other comorbidities. It's the same with the "regular" flu of course, but it makes reporting the actual death rate problematic.

What I gather is that, in the absence of comorbidities, COVID-19 has a similar death rate to H1N1, SARS, etc. When you factor in comorbidities, the death rate spikes higher than those viruses. So, in otherwise healthy people, COVID-19 poses little risk of death, BUT it is far more contagious and therefore the risk of transmission is higher. Young, healthy people who think it won't affect them are not taking into account that they can carry the virus home to Mom, Dad, Grandma & Grandpa - who may be much more likely to die from it.

More:
I was just reading about the Spanish Flu (1918 pandemic) as that's been used as a comparison to COVID-19. What was unique about that pandemic is that it affected more healthy young people than the standard flu strains. The primary cause of death in most causes was bacterial infection caused by squalid conditions, malnourishment, and poor hygiene especially in the overcrowded and understaffed medical facilities of the time. It's estimated that 25% of the world's population was infected, with an estimated 10% mortality rate. Granted, in modern countries we have better overall living conditions and medical facilities, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to be see mortality rates approaching those numbers. The pandemic lasted over a year back then. I see no reason why it won't last at least that long this time.

[MasterGoa]

More:
I was just reading about the Spanish Flu (1918 pandemic) as that's been used as a comparison to COVID-19. What was unique about that pandemic is that it affected more healthy young people than the standard flu strains. The primary cause of death in most causes was bacterial infection caused by squalid conditions, malnourishment, and poor hygiene especially in the overcrowded and understaffed medical facilities of the time. It's estimated that 25% of the world's population was infected, with an estimated 10% mortality rate. Granted, in modern countries we have better overall living conditions and medical facilities, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to be see mortality rates approaching those numbers. The pandemic lasted over a year back then. I see no reason why it won't last at least that long this time.

The reason the Spanish Flu spread was that is was in WWI and was dispersed quite effectively by returning soldiers...
The scary part is that the SF had two phases so it actually mutated mi-pandemic.

A theory is that it mutated to attack healthy men because of the propagation in military groups...

[SirBaron]

793 deaths so far in Italy for one day, it's breaking records very fast (not in a good way).

Italy is crazy bad at the moment.

[Shapeshifter]

6,557 new cases of coronavirus and 793 new deaths, raising total to 53,578 cases and 4,825 dead in italy.


Over 300k worldwide now.

[Munkus]

So far the overall mortality rate in the US is 1.3%
Total cases: 15,219
Total deaths: 201
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

However, those numbers don't tell us anything about the health and age of the victims. How many died due to comorbidity factors? How many were old? Young? Men? Women?

It's extremely difficult and frustrating to try to sift through the FUD online. I'm just going to keep living my life and stop stressing about everything. Nothing I can do to change it besides self-quarantine and ride this out. Thankfully my job appears to be safe unless this lasts for many months.

[Lazy8s]

It's extremely difficult and frustrating to try to sift through the FUD online. I'm just going to keep living my life and stop stressing about everything. Nothing I can do to change it besides self-quarantine and ride this out. Thankfully my job appears to be safe unless this lasts for many months.

Yes sir. The seriousness of the situation aside, there's just no point in getting stressed over it. It won't help anything.

We're watching the news of course, keeping in touch with everyone, but other than that, life goes on and it could be worse.

[acroig]

793 deaths so far in Italy for one day, it's breaking records very fast (not in a good way).

Italy is crazy bad at the moment.

Forza Italia!!

[Pr3tty F1y]

Coronavirus rapid test incoming.

No word on accuracy/precision (i.e., accuracy describes the difference between the measurement and the actual value, while precision describes the variation you see when you measure the same thing repeatedly - so basically false positives/false negatives).

FDA approves new test that could detect coronavirus in about 45 minutes

[bill dennison]

PHOENIX — A man in his 50s became the first Arizona resident to die from the coronavirus, the Arizona Department of Health Services announced Friday night.

https://ktar.com/story/3036129/arizo...irus-in-state/

[globalist]

I'm really proud of how most of the people in my country (Slovakia) have been handling the criris so far.

Below, our new prime minister being appointed by our president - all polititians, news reporters, public figures, etc have been wearing face masks in public for 10 days already, setting an example for the people to follow. I'm not seeing much of that in the western countries which is quite worrying.

With that said, our healthcare system has been a shambles even without the looming Covid crisis, so people here know very well why they should be cautios and disciplined.

[Lazy8s]

Coronavirus rapid test incoming.

No word on accuracy/precision (i.e., accuracy describes the difference between the measurement and the actual value, while precision describes the variation you see when you measure the same thing repeatedly - so basically false positives/false negatives).

FDA approves new test that could detect coronavirus in about 45 minutes

That's heartening. Thank you for the news

[shrike126]

NJ just made it official with the "stay the **** home" declaration.



Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...early-n1165661

[nutcrackr]

Question for the people in USA (or other countries) under "stay at home" rules. Have they said anything about what precautions people should take when they go to supermarkets etc? Are you required to wear masks or gloves etc? If not, will you decide to do so?

We're currently not in lockdown yet in Australia, only rules for social distancing and gathering sizes.

[bill dennison]

Question for the people in USA (or other countries) under "stay at home" rules. Have they said anything about what precautions people should take when they go to supermarkets etc? Are you required to wear masks or gloves etc? If not, will you decide to do so?

We're currently not in lockdown yet in Australia, only rules for social distancing and gathering sizes.

i have a few n95's and i may start using 3 to go to the supermarkets and some Safety Glasses

use one then ziplock bag it and leave it in the sun for a few days and then rotate the 3 masks and reuse them that way

if not the 18 mask i got left will go fast


depends on how bad phoenix gets

Weather here maybe close to 90f here in a week or so and that may help

Apple to donate 2 million masks to US coronavirus response, Pence says

https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-dona...se-pence-says/

they just sold a iphone 12 as soon as they ever get them out

[wazman]

Question for the people in USA (or other countries) under "stay at home" rules. Have they said anything about what precautions people should take when they go to supermarkets etc? Are you required to wear masks or gloves etc? If not, will you decide to do so?

We're currently not in lockdown yet in Australia, only rules for social distancing and gathering sizes.

Not in Illinois. You can if you so choose, but it's not mandated. You can still do most of the things you did before - go to the store, get gas for your car, go for a walk, walk your dog, just as long as you don't gather or get too close to other people. It's mostly just businesses that are shut down - unless you're deemed essential.

[Jasef]

Im currently in a bar full of people. It's like no one here cares. And I guess I am contributing by being here.

[globalist]

Im currently in a bar full of people. It's like no one here cares. And I guess I am contributing by being here.

Sorry to be so blunt, but are you retarded?

[Crawdaddy79]

What the f*** is going on in Italy?

Another jump in number of cases - this time over 6,000 when the previous high was around 4,000. 800 new deaths.

https://apnews.com/3dcb3392a3c566a1caad7444e93fc7e6

Is the government counting people who die from everything as a COVID death? Do they get more emergency funding from the EU if they skew the numbers? Their ratio is really not right.

[bill dennison]

What the f*** is going on in Italy?

Another jump in number of cases - this time over 6,000 when the previous high was around 4,000. 800 new deaths.

https://apnews.com/3dcb3392a3c566a1caad7444e93fc7e6

Is the government counting people who die from everything as a COVID death? Do they get more emergency funding from the EU if they skew the numbers? Their ratio is really not right.

most likely not testing the dead and if it looks like COVID it is

[acroig]

https://ktar.com/story/3036129/arizo...irus-in-state/

Crap....

[Cyko]

Im currently in a bar full of people. It's like no one here cares. And I guess I am contributing by being here.

Dude...wtf? Global pandemic means get and keep thine ass home. I know you’re smarter than this.

[bill dennison]

Dude...wtf? Global pandemic means get and keep thine ass home. I know you’re smarter than this.

[Pr3tty F1y]

Im currently in a bar full of people. It's like no one here cares. And I guess I am contributing by being here.

Dude...wtf? Global pandemic means get and keep thine ass home. I know you’re smarter than this.

Cyko - Totally agreed.

Jasef - Just read this:

"I am at home, feeling about as sick as I've ever been," Utah Rep. Ben McAdams told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Friday,.

"It's really labored breathing, I feel like I have a belt around my chest that's really tight. When I cough, my muscles are so sore, so I just feel pain every time I cough, which is frequently," he added. "I feel short of breath and I have a fever of about 102."

[bill dennison]

Cyko - Totally agreed.

Jasef - Just read this:

your avatar is now in style

[Fat_Daddy_Cool]

My doctor has been exposed and he may be sick as we speak, he was ordered to stay home by the College of medicine. I saw him about 2 weeks ago. Soooo yeah... that happened

[Shapeshifter]

What the f*** is going on in Italy?

Another jump in number of cases - this time over 6,000 when the previous high was around 4,000. 800 new deaths.

https://apnews.com/3dcb3392a3c566a1caad7444e93fc7e6

Is the government counting people who die from everything as a COVID death? Do they get more emergency funding from the EU if they skew the numbers? Their ratio is really not right.

Nope.

According to the mayor of the hardest hit city they are under counting in fact.

https://translate.google.ca/translat...b63c3b648e6263

here are elderly people who die at home, in convents, in monasteries who cannot even get on the ambulance. They don't even go to hospitals. Confirmation?

That's what's going on. In this province the number of deaths due to the virus is far higher than that of official statistics. Many elderly patients die of pneumonia at home, or in nursing homes, without anyone having swabbed them, either before or after death. I called a dozen mayors to get an idea: in those municipalities the number of deaths attributable to the epidemic is roughly four times the official one.

[Shapeshifter]

Im currently in a bar full of people. It's like no one here cares. And I guess I am contributing by being here.

[yt]tQD4B_hmdvo[/yt]

UK ITU Doctor on LBC radio describes the scene in his full to capacity ITU Ward. Speaks of his upset that British people are ignoring the social distancing measures. description of current NHS conditions

This is serious. I don't know, don't quite get why our government has to tell you don't go to the pub. you know if you go to the pub. somebody who gets the infection you may have, it may not be the person you touched but within 10 people they'll be people who will be dead.

[NWR_Midnight]

So far the overall mortality rate in the US is 1.3%
Total cases: 15,219
Total deaths: 201
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

However, those numbers don't tell us anything about the health and age of the victims. How many died due to comorbidity factors? How many were old? Young? Men? Women?

It's extremely difficult and frustrating to try to sift through the FUD online. I'm just going to keep living my life and stop stressing about everything. Nothing I can do to change it besides self-quarantine and ride this out. Thankfully my job appears to be safe unless this lasts for many months.

The over all mortality rate is much much higher., as most of the deaths that are currently shown are from people who where diagnosed up to 2 weeks ago. If we had ZERO new cases added to that number going forward, the deaths will still continue to rise over the next 2 weeks. This week we have an influx of new cases, the death rate will have large influx of deaths in 1 to 2 weeks. It says most that die from the virus, it happens within about 17 days of first showing symptoms.

Example, we have just today over 6500 new cases in the US. Most of those new cases. deaths won't happen for roughly 2 weeks give or take a few days. We have had 75+ more deaths today alone, which most of those deaths are from when we had less than a 1000 cases reported roughly 2 weeks ago.

[Koenig]

I saw some 80 year old guy at walmart today with a mask on his face but he was holding a cigar in his mouth from the outside of his mask (face->mask->cigar). I guess he was biting down through the mask to hold the cigar there.