Official Thread: Coronavirus "COVID-19"

[MasterGoa]

Sure he does. But in today's press conference, right after Trump spoke, an actual medical professional immediately undercut much of his optimism and cautioned that we're still a ways away from an FDA approved and readily available treatment.

For the FDA, yes, but other countries have made progress.

If a treatment is working in Italy, for example, would you actually prefer
that it goes through another round of red tape in the FDA or be fast tracked in
the hands of people battling the virus?

[Nunz]

That's including losses caused by temporary closures, correct? I assume that those jobs will be re-filled when the businesses reopen, so IN THEORY the job gains in May or June should be good.

I dunno, we're in uncharted territory here. Anything is possible.

On a related note, 3 C-130s just flew over my house at low altitude, heading towards Glacier Airport. Which is odd, because 1) normal training exercises are done on Saturdays, 2) they usually only fly in pairs, and 3) they were so low I could count the rivets on the fuselage. National Guard mobilizing maybe? We're about an hour from the Canadian border...so I dunno. I think I should be worried.

Likely just moving supplies. Food, water, etc or even moving sanitary supplies. We've been doing a lot of those out here from base to base. They could be low altitude for a number of reasons, very few concerning. It's most likely the C-130 had an issue and resorted to low altitude because they break every flight

[nutcrackr]

It is very sad what is happening in Italy. Spain is not in a good way either, but not quite as bad.

Germany is a real surprise. It has many cases but CFR is just 0.4%. Whatever they're doing must be working in terms of severity of cases.

It's good to hear some of these anti-malaria drugs working. Hopefully in the days and weeks to come even more effective tools can be deployed.

[MasterGoa]

Taiwan is the more interesting case. As soon as China reported issues to the WHO,
the closed the border. In plane screening, thermal cams everywhere to track fever, etc.

South Korea is interesting in that the death rate is much lower than average...

Both share a border with China.

[nutcrackr]

Taiwan is the more interesting case. As soon as China reported issues to the WHO,
the closed the border. In plane screening, thermal cams everywhere to track fever, etc.

South Korea is interesting in that the death rate is much lower than average...

Both share a border with China.

SK has been testing and tracing contacts, so their efficiency is pretty clear.

[bill dennison]

SK has been testing and tracing contacts, so their efficiency is pretty clear.

in south korea they all wear masks all the time anyway and so had lots of stock

[NWR_Midnight]

The USA isn't Italy. So far Italy has shown itself to be a pretty special case. They've gotten hit hard due to a number of confounding factors that many other countries may not suffer from. Not all populations of people are created equal either.

CDC for the last 4 days (3/17, 3/18, 3/19, 3/20):

Total Cases: 4226, 7038, 10442, 15219
Total Deaths: 75, 97, 150 , 201



That is in just the last 4 days, and the CDC is 24 or more hours behind in their totals. I think we are looking to become worse than Italy if things don't change quickly by the looks of the trajectory we are on right now.

[MasterGoa]

Those numbers are normal as they ramp up testing though...

[Pr3tty F1y]

Those numbers are normal as they ramp up testing though...

Correct - increased testing + faster turn around on testing (so we're getting a lot of test back faster than we were previously when it took days to get results). Plus the US is a far more populous nation, so numbers will be higher.

[NWR_Midnight]

LOL When I was young I can remember coal buckets filled with corn cobs in the corner of the outhouse. Or Sears and Roebuck catalogs hanging from a wire. You can survive without TP. Most just aren't old enough to remember how. I know I grew up in deliverance but I sure did learn how to survive.

Leaves.... just not the ones that make you itch!!!

[bill dennison]

CDC for the last 4 days (3/17, 3/18, 3/19, 3/20):

Total Cases: 4226, 7038, 10442, 15219
Total Deaths: 75, 97, 150 , 201



That is in just the last 4 days, and the CDC is 24 or more hours behind in their totals. I think we are looking to become worse than Italy if things don't change quickly by the looks of the trajectory we are on right now.

Italy is almost 10% deaths
4,032 out of 47,021


we have 224 out of 17,402 or 0.01287208366%

and still the most deaths are in Washington

[acroig]

Downers Grove midway between Chicago and Joliet basically. I can look out my window still 16 cars right now in the Burlington RR commuter lot(Chicago to Aurora). Trucks still coming and going from the Original Pepperidge Farm.

Nice neighborhood. Stay safe.

[NWR_Midnight]

Italy is almost 10% deaths
4,032 out of 47,021


we have 224 out of 17,402 or 0.01287208366%

and still the most deaths are in Washington

Italy didn't start out that high either. We are 2 weeks behind Italy, you can't compare the numbers.

I live in Washington state, in the Spokane area. We just had another confirmed case today (actually more than just one). This one is in a nursing home. So you can expect that 201 deaths to dramatically increase from that one case. Another one is in a Mulitcare doctor building... You know, the people you are supposed to see when you are sick and get tested..... You can go ahead and keep your head in the sand, and call me all you want.. but the reality is, we are headed for bad times, possibly worse than Italy, as that is the path we are currently on.

here is Italy https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
here is USA https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

scroll down and look at the graphs.. Look at the trajectory compared to each other... Specially the deaths.

[nutcrackr]

Italy didn't start out that high either. We are 2 weeks behind Italy, you can't compare the numbers.

I live in Washington state, in the Spokane area. We just had another confirmed case today (actually more than just one). This one is in a nursing home. So you can expect that 201 deaths to dramatically increase from that one case. Another one is in a Mulitcare doctor building... You know, the people you are supposed to see when you are sick and get tested..... You can go ahead and keep your head in the sand, and call me all you want.. but the reality is, we are headed for bad times, possibly worse than Italy, as that is the path we are currently on.

here is Italy https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
here is USA https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

scroll down and look at the graphs.. Look at the trajectory compared to each other... Specially the deaths.

It is true that Italy didn't have a lot of deaths early. But when they had 17k cases, the CFR was around 7%. The fatality rate has been over 3% and rising since only 2500 infected.

I believe Italy has an insanely high number of infected. They tested one town and found 3% had it. If the same was true for USA, that would be 10 million people infected right now. They might have had a few super spreaders (like SK's patient 31) but we'll probably never know.

[wazman]

Illinois going in lockdown tonight.

Tomorrow night. 5pm. And I'm not, because I work at one of the essential businesses.

[NWR_Midnight]

It is true that Italy didn't have a lot of deaths early. But when they had 17k cases, the CFR was around 7%. The fatality rate has been over 3% and rising since only 2500 infected.

I believe Italy has an insanely high number of infected. They tested one town and found 3% had it. If the same was true for USA, that would be 10 million people infected right now. They might have had a few super spreaders (like SK's patient 31) but we'll probably never know.

We are lagging way behind in testing. We aren't testing everyone, only those that have symptoms and have been outside of the country, or exposed to someone that was.. Until, what, a week ago. We are just now ramping up the testing beyond those fitting in that criteria.

Point is, if we started testing everyone, we could very well have millions infected. We are so far behind in where we should be, we don't know, and we have been so far behind in taking proper measures, the infection rate is going to be astronomical, which will lead to large amounts of deaths.

[Munkus]

Update: we now have 2 confirmed cases in my town. 19 total in the state. Not surprised at all, it’s here.

[Shapeshifter]

It is true that Italy didn't have a lot of deaths early. But when they had 17k cases, the CFR was around 7%. The fatality rate has been over 3% and rising since only 2500 infected.

I believe Italy has an insanely high number of infected. They tested one town and found 3% had it. If the same was true for USA, that would be 10 million people infected right now. They might have had a few super spreaders (like SK's patient 31) but we'll probably never know.

1st page, the US had a case in Washington the day before they went about locking Wuhan down.

[Android1]

Tomorrow night. 5pm. And I'm not, because I work at one of the essential businesses.

Sorry to hear that you have to expose yourself. At least you get to make money while doing so.

[acroig]

Tomorrow night. 5pm. And I'm not, because I work at one of the essential businesses.

Stay safe!

[Java Cool Dude]

Italy is almost 10% deaths
4,032 out of 47,021


we have 224 out of 17,402 or 0.01287208366%

and still the most deaths are in Washington

1.287%

[bill dennison]

1.287%

yea forgot to move the point

still much lower than italy

[Evileh]

I don't leave the house anyhow. But you all can keep that **** from chicago out of central illinois please lol.

[wazman]

Sorry to hear that you have to expose yourself. At least you get to make money while doing so.

Actually, we closed our lobbies so we only do walk-ins by appointment. So there is that distance.

[nutcrackr]

We are lagging way behind in testing. We aren't testing everyone, only those that have symptoms and have been outside of the country, or exposed to someone that was.. Until, what, a week ago. We are just now ramping up the testing beyond those fitting in that criteria.

Point is, if we started testing everyone, we could very well have millions infected. We are so far behind in where we should be, we don't know, and we have been so far behind in taking proper measures, the infection rate is going to be astronomical, which will lead to large amounts of deaths.

I agree with you, but more testing would likely equal a lower fatality rate. Which is why US is not really doing too bad in terms of severity. I expect cases will continue to go up fairly rapidly for maybe 5 more days. Make no mistake, there are a lot of people infected in US who have not yet been diagnosed. But it's a small fraction of what Italy was (and still is) dealing with.

[MasterGoa]

Fun fact: They interviewed a Italian doctor working in IC ward and testing
of patients across Italy comes back to 3 people...

3 people brought the virus in Italy. Supposedly.
Mind blowing for sure...

[Android1]

Actually, we closed our lobbies so we only do walk-ins by appointment. So there is that distance.

[Payne3d]

yea forgot to move the point

still much lower than italy

Don't worry. that number is gonna climb pretty soon when those who can't afford treatment for coronavirus start dying.

https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/
"Total Cost of Her COVID-19 Treatment: $34,927.43"

[DarkFoss]

Nice neighborhood. Stay safe.

Thanks, You as well and everyone else too.

Tomorrow night. 5pm. And I'm not, because I work at one of the essential businesses.

Double for you!

I don't leave the house anyhow. But you all can keep that **** from chicago out of central illinois please lol.

Well considering it's confirmed in 25 of Illinois counties if it's not already there it's just a matter of time. Or more likely a matter of testing.

[bill dennison]

Don't worry. that number is gonna climb pretty soon when those who can't afford treatment for coronavirus start dying.

https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/
"Total Cost of Her COVID-19 Treatment: $34,927.43"

not on you
but so many people seem to be hoping for the worst

getting sick of the ****ing defeatist attitudes everywhere


we will see

but i hope we are better than that

[Evileh]

Well considering it's confirmed in 25 of Illinois counties if it's not already there it's just a matter of time. Or more likely a matter of testing.

It is down here in spfld but still lol. Gf live in taylorvile but there hasn't been any cases in that county yet. It's out in the middle of no where though too.

[acroig]

not on you
but so many people seem to be hoping for the worst

getting sick of the ****ing defeatist attitudes everywhere


we will see

but i hope we are better than that

Fine line between fear mongering and ignoring facts.

[DeathKnight]

California in lockdown now. Wow

By the way, not a lockdown. It's a "stay at home" order. Many places are still open and you can still go out for essential things.

[NWR_Midnight]

not on you
but so many people seem to be hoping for the worst

getting sick of the ****ing defeatist attitudes everywhere


we will see

but i hope we are better than that

It has nothing to do with hoping for the worst. It's taking our heads out of the sand and facing the facts, realizing that we are not even close to the peak which is minimum 2 weeks away per the top Doctors and scientists, and that won't happen if we don't start taking this **** seriously, and stop ignoring facts. Stop ignoring the restrictions Federal, state, and local governments are laying down,. And after the peak which is the peak of infection, comes all the people who will die after the peak. We haven't even hit the exponential phase yet. That's why many states who don't have a high count yet are already putting stay at home orders (and people are ignoring). Something that should have happened a lot sooner.

We have 6 times the population count as Italy, which means we have 6 times the amount of elderly (USA is 20%, Italy is 22%)... What this all translates into is we will have more infected, and we will have more total dead when it is all said and done. Will we have a lower death count percentage, maybe.. but when it's one of your loved ones, the percentage doesn't matter. We already have more deaths than we should have every had.

[bill dennison]

It has nothing to do with hoping for the worst. It's taking our heads out of the sand and facing the facts, realizing that we are not even close to the peak which is minimum 2 weeks away per the top Doctors and scientists, and that won't happen if we don't start taking this **** seriously, and stop ignoring facts. Stop ignoring the restrictions Federal, state, and local governments are laying down,. And after the peak which is the peak of infection, comes all the people who will die after the peak. We haven't even hit the exponential phase yet. That's why many states who don't have a high count yet are already putting stay at home orders (and people are ignoring). Something that should have happened a lot sooner.

We have 6 times the population count as Italy, which means we have 6 times the amount of elderly (USA is 20%, Italy is 22%)... What this all translates into is we will have more infected, and we will have more total dead when it is all said and done. Will we have a lower death count percentage, maybe.. but when it's one of your loved ones, the percentage doesn't matter. We already have more deaths than we should have every had.

and we don't have the markets of italy
https://www.agriturismo.it/en/extra/...s-in-italy-914

and we have 10x or more the separation in our housing and most of ours is not over a 1000 years old
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/i...tes/index.html

i saw lots of Italy in the navy was there for a few weeks nice place but lots of very old and congested constitution


.........
and i do air conditioning a arizona essential service and have tons of old customers
and i am the sole care taker of my 91 and 92 year old parents who can't drive or go to the store or the doctor on their own
both with heart conductions
hell so do i
plus a 97 year old uncle on his own in montana

so excuse the **** out of me if i don't like to think of the worst every god damn minute of the day
i do anyway now, hell my father fell two days ago and could not get on his own




and so i hope one of these drugs may work and we get time to use them before it gets as bad here as Italy

and damn the ****ing cost we can think of that later like my uncle and parents did in ww2

[NWR_Midnight]

and we don't have the markets of italy
https://www.agriturismo.it/en/extra/...s-in-italy-914

and we have 10x or more the separation in our housing and most of ours is not over a 1000 years old
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/i...tes/index.html

i saw lots of Italy in the navy was there for a few weeks nice place but lots of very old and congested constitution


.........
and i do air conditioning a arizona essential service and have tons of old customers
and i am the sole care taker of my 91 and 92 year old parents who can't drive or go to the store or the doctor on their own
both with heart conductions
hell so do i
plus a 97 year old uncle on his own in montana

so excuse the **** out of me if i don't like to think of the worst every god damn minute of the day
i do anyway now, hell my father fell two days ago and could not get on his own




and so i hope one of these drugs may work and we get time to use them before it gets as bad here as Italy

and damn the ****ing cost we can think of that later like my uncle and parents did in ww2

They are not much difference than we are, the only real difference is population density..

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/...y/demographics

Germany is closer to them in stats:

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/...y/demographics


German is extremely close across the board with Italy, and Germany has HIGHER population density. They have nearly equal the amount of infected people that we have, yet, they only have 68 deaths..so, that pretty much cancels out demographic, density issues, and just about all of your argument of why Italy is doing so bad and we won't have such issues. Because if that was the case, Germany wouldn't be doing so well.

Had our government acted when the should have, and how they should have a lot sooner, than I might be able to agree. But their reaction was basically like seeing a forest fire heading straight for them, but did nothing until the fire reached the front door and started burning it down. (that is all I'm going to say on that so it doesn't lead to P&R)

There is nothing wrong with HOPE, but people can't ignore facts of what is happening and what is still to come. It's not thinking the worst, it's being prepared, and making sure people do the right thing, which many are not, and that is why pisses me off.

I'm not saying you are in that catagory.

However, putting false hope into a miracle drug is not going to help anyone. The reality is, even if one of the current drugs appear to work (money be dammed) it will be months before they will be able to administer it after going thru the trials of testing, and a year or more before a vaccine will be available.. We don't have months.. we have days, maybe weeks if people stop thinking it's not that bad and have the discipline to stay home and away from people.

I hope I'm wrong, but I can't shake the feeling that I'm not. Trust me, I've tried.

Sorry to hear about your dad. Watched my Dad (step) die of cancer the end of June last year. Not easy to watch the people you love go thru that stuff. So I too worry about my mom with health issues, my biological Dad, and my step mom, dad healthy, step mom has had a few cancer battles that she won.(all mid 70's).. Fortunately my Dad/stepmom live in Minnesota, where they only have about 134 cases.. My mom lives here in Washington.. one of the hotpots of America, and with the most deaths from it. One reason I am so vocal about people not taking this seriously because I am watching it first hand from the idiots around here.

I don't mean to direct that frustration at you. My apologies.

[xCLAVEx]

The business I work at announced they will not close unless the President, Governor, or Mayor issues a shelter in place order. We are all expected to come to work assuming we don't have kids to watch over. We are technically not an essential business (medical billing company but I work for an IT department where there are 4 of us handing 700 PCS).

This is a double edged sword. It's good because it means we get to keep our paychecks coming in, but it's bad because our exposure is moderate. There are over 400 people in our building and I wander through about 150-200 of them daily. Who knows who they come into contact with since they are from all over...

[globalist]

German is extremely close across the board with Italy, and Germany has HIGHER population density. They have nearly equal the amount of infected people that we have, yet, they only have 68 deaths..so, that pretty much cancels out demographic, density issues, and just about all of your argument of why Italy is doing so bad and we won't have such issues. Because if that was the case, Germany wouldn't be doing so well.


.

According to some sources, Germany is just not reporting the deaths the same way as Italy is.

Germany will only report a death when there was no other comorbidity besides Covid. While Italy will report a case even when Covid was not be the direct cause of death. Only 18% of Italy deaths were directly caused by Covid:

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

[bill dennison]

They are not much difference than we are, the only real difference is population density..

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/...y/demographics

Germany is closer to them in stats:

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/...y/demographics


German is extremely close across the board with Italy, and Germany has HIGHER population density. They have nearly equal the amount of infected people that we have, yet, they only have 68 deaths..so, that pretty much cancels out demographic, density issues, and just about all of your argument of why Italy is doing so bad and we won't have such issues. Because if that was the case, Germany wouldn't be doing so well.

Had our government acted when the should have, and how they should have a lot sooner, than I might be able to agree. But their reaction was basically like seeing a forest fire heading straight for them, but did nothing until the fire reached the front door and started burning it down. (that is all I'm going to say on that so it doesn't lead to P&R)

There is nothing wrong with HOPE, but people can't ignore facts of what is happening and what is still to come. It's not thinking the worst, it's being prepared, and making sure people do the right thing, which many are not, and that is why pisses me off.

I'm not saying you are in that catagory.

However, putting false hope into a miracle drug is not going to help anyone. The reality is, even if one of the current drugs appear to work (money be dammed) it will be months before they will be able to administer it after going thru the trials of testing, and a year or more before a vaccine will be available.. We don't have months.. we have days, maybe weeks if people stop thinking it's not that bad and have the discipline to stay home and away from people.

I hope I'm wrong, but I can't shake the feeling that I'm not. Trust me, I've tried.

Sorry to hear about your dad. Watched my Dad (step) die of cancer the end of June last year. Not easy to watch the people you love go thru that stuff. So I too worry about my mom with health issues, my biological Dad, and my step mom, dad healthy, step mom has had a few cancer battles that she won.(all mid 70's).. Fortunately my Dad/stepmom live in Minnesota, where they only have about 134 cases.. My mom lives here in Washington.. one of the hotpots of America, and with the most deaths from it. One reason I am so vocal about people not taking this seriously because I am watching it first hand from the idiots around here.

I don't mean to direct that frustration at you. My apologies.

nope

they are already using them under Compassionate drug use
https://www.cancer.org/treatment/tre...-drug-use.html

from my sister that works for a drug and medical device company doing the government paper work for these type of trials

and they are recording all results for the FDA

that is about all she could tell me

but i am hoping we know on some of them one way or the other in weeks not months

[Pr3tty F1y]

Correct. Doctors use drugs off label all of the time. The fact that there are available potential treatments is a very good thing.