Official Thread: Coronavirus "COVID-19"

[Crawdaddy79]

There is also a lot of False Negatives :

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/...s-of-accuracy/

Well yeah those are the tests China exclusively uses right now.

[Android1]

Well yeah those are the tests China exclusively uses right now.

[shrike126]

I know many are talking about the anti-malaria drug as being a potential treatment. It's a bit early to get optimistic about that. Don't take medical advice or guidance or pin hopes for a medical treatment availability coming soon despite what the President of the United States or Facebook might say, they're not doctors. And Dr. Fauci is strongly encouraging caution against too much misplaced optimism here.

The drug has shown some promise in limited laboratory settings and patient use, but it’s far from a proven cure.

“I am a man that comes from a very positive school when it comes to, in particular, one of these drugs,” Trump said of the drug Friday, adding: “That would be a game changer.”

That clashed with the line from the government’s top infectious disease expert just a minute earlier.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading voice in the government’s COVID-19 response, pointed out that while Hydroxychloroquine had shown “potential” against the disease, it had not been clinically approved for use.

“Dr. Fauci said there is no magic drug for coronavirus right now, which you would agree?” NBC’s Peter Alexander pressed Trump.

“Well, I think we only disagree a little bit,” Trump responded. “Maybe there is, maybe there isn’t.”

The President soldiered on. “I feel good about it,” he said. “That’s all it is, just a feeling. I’m a smart guy.”

“I’m not being overly optimistic or pessimistic,” Trump added. “I sure as hell think we ought to give it a try. There’s been some interesting things happening and some very good things. Let’s see what happens. We have nothing to lose.”

“You know the expression: What the hell do you have to lose?”

Source: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/t...d-19-treatment

President Trump undermined his own top infectious disease expert at a Friday White House briefing on the question of whether chloroquine, a drug that has been known to treat malaria but has not yet been rigorously tested and approved for treating the coronavirus, could be used to combat the new disease.

At a separate briefing the day before, Trump had said that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine had been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat the coronavirus. But shortly after, the FDA commissioner Stephen Hahnc contradicted Trump, saying that the FDA would need to determine that in a clinical trial. A spokesman for the FDA told Bloomberg News that the drug had not yet been approved for COVID-19 patients.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...navirus-2020-3

I'm posting this here, outside of P&R, not because of the political aspects in accusing Trump of not being a doctor, or even moderately well informed on the subject, but rather I've seen some here and elsewhere on social media hyping up these potential treatments as being a silver bullet that'll solve the novel coronavirus situation like magic. It's not that. And we're still far from anything being available that might look like that.

And even if it does turn out to be a magic bullet, we're not getting it readily available within the next few weeks, which is when the worst of this will hit our hospitals and start overwhelming our healthcare systems.

[SubCog]

So my folks have spent the winter RV'ing across the country. They've been out for 7 months now, and are slowly making their way back home (Portland) from Florida. They had planned to visit us in San Jose in early April, on their way back. They have a RV camp reservation booked for that week.

I had an awkward conversation with my Dad about the lock-down here, which will persist through the time they're scheduled to be here. I don't want to tell him not to come, but I also want to respect the health guidelines.

I'm not sure what the recommendations are for people who are on long-term RV trips. On one hand, maybe it's safe for them to travel, as they are pretty self-contained anyway. Although on the other hand, they are covering long distances, interacting with people & things at rest-stops, gas stations, etc. Does "shelter-in-place" mean you can't drive your motorhome?

I suggested that my parents consider postponing the rest of their traveling until after things settle down. They're currently on a massive ranch in Arizona, which must be the safest place they can possibly be right now. They're scheduled to stay there another 10 days or so. My dad is pretty reluctant to change his plans though. I said we'll get more info in the next 10 days, so maybe he can just keep his options open for now.

Either way, road-tripping through California is going to be a bit awkward right now.

[globalist]

I'm posting this here, outside of P&R, not because of the political aspects in accusing Trump of not being a doctor, or even moderately well informed on the subject, but rather I've seen some here and elsewhere on social media hyping up these potential treatments as being a silver bullet that'll solve the novel coronavirus situation like magic. .

Where exactly was anyone saying that here?

[Jasef]

Friend of mine got it. "feels like a man old" was his exact words

[shrike126]

Where exactly was anyone saying that here?

Off the top of my head this post comes to mind.

Perhaps the best damned news I've heard in a good long time. If it checks out (might be correlative factors in less travel, not having anything to do with the drugs themselves), then it's readily available drugs that can be given as a preventative measure without needing to wait on a vaccine. Still a ridiculous AMOUNT of those drugs needed, but it's a way forward. It dovetails with actual studies indicating efficacy of chloroquinine.

https://www.facebook.com/roy.w.spenc...06577842122480

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...0AJGovbJ9ATq7A

Quinine is in tonic water... I think you know what you need to do... (edit: Yes, this is a joke.. I know that quinine isn't necessarily the same benefit as the other anti-malarials being tested.)

https://www.thespruceeats.com/gin-an...-recipe-759300

[globalist]

Off the top of my head this post comes to mind.

And you already replied to that post when it was originally posted. So why exactly did you feel the need to bring Trump into this here? P&R thread too much of an echo chamber?

[shrike126]

And you already replied to that post when it was originally posted. So why exactly did you feel the need to bring Trump into this here? P&R thread too much of an echo chamber?

Because Trump unfortunately has this capacity to wander off outside of P&R topics and strays sometimes into more mainstream, what should be non-political conversations.

Today he was hyping up these treatments and I think it's worth reminding everyone that Trump isn't a medical expert or a health professional. The health experts are cautioning that more testing and research needs to be done. A lot more.

[dodger]

Moved up my next grocery run a day early so I can get a bead on weekday afternoon traffic and it's still elevated. This time I could not find frozen garlic bread but got everything else. Empty shelves here and there were just as prevalent as last time. Unbeknownst to me Mom whose a senior citizen has been doing similar but early in the morning to take advantage of senior hour at a different store. She reports that they only let 50 seniors in the store at a time so there's a line outside and people try to keep a good distance from each other. Same story as what I'm seeing, can get most things with empty shelves here and there. Also there is still no TP, you'd figure everyone should have a year's supply by now.

[shrike126]

If anyone's wondering why we're taking such drastic actions here in the U.S. it's because we're on a trajectory that models show aligns with us being about 10 days behind Italy in terms of disease spread and impact on our healthcare systems.

Here's Italy's numbers for Thursday 3/19.



That's roughly an 8% mortality rate.

The population of the United States doesn't skew towards older generations like Italy does (except maybe in some states), and isn't as geographically compact. But we do have a for-profit healthcare system that isn't designed to sustain a large volume of ICU or hospital visits. And our population overall is roughly 6x larger than Italy's.

More info here: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...t-overreacting

[KAC]

California in lockdown now. Wow

[DeathKnight]

The USA isn't Italy. So far Italy has shown itself to be a pretty special case. They've gotten hit hard due to a number of confounding factors that many other countries may not suffer from. Not all populations of people are created equal either.

[CurrentlyPissed]

California in lockdown now. Wow

Illinois going in lockdown tonight.

[shrike126]

The USA isn't Italy. So far Italy has shown itself to be a pretty special case. They've gotten hit hard due to a number of confounding factors that many other countries may not suffer from. Not all populations of people are created equal either.

I hope you're right.

[koralis]

Off the top of my head this post comes to mind.

And the bolded area isn't a big enough freaking qualifier??

If it checks out (might be correlative factors in less travel, not having anything to do with the drugs themselves), then it's readily available drugs that can be given as a preventative measure without needing to wait on a vaccine. Still a ridiculous AMOUNT of those drugs needed, but it's a way forward. It dovetails with actual studies indicating efficacy of chloroquinine.

If/indicating/correlative/can (not will)/etc/etc



You're right.. I shouldn't highlight a possible ray of light and stick to nothing but doom and gloom. You're all ****ing doomed! Suicide now!

[DarkFoss]

Illinois going in lockdown tonight.

Even under the lockdown we can still travel to Pharmacies, Grocery Stores and Gas Stations. Must still have access to Cigarettes& Alcohol.
Not sure about the Cannabis Dispensaries. One site had restricted recreational sales to appointment only starting today. I'd assume the medical side would be the same, especially since they can order online and streamline pick-up times. No parking on the streets limited to the small parking lots.
Since it was posted before J.B. Pritzker's announcement today it's quite possible only medical card holders will have access if any.
Not really joking in times like these Stress relief is kind of fundemental.

[switchAMG]

I just did a beer run. Fully stocked. Hard alcohol and wine, also good. I must have at least 5-6oz of weed plus a few vape pens.

Bring on the apocalypse.

[Shapeshifter]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-...ever-seen.html

The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen

Economists expect April to be the first reporting month when the damage starts to show up.

Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.

The worst month during the financial crisis saw nonfarm payrolls decrease by 800,000.

Weekly jobless claims numbers are expected to be so bad that the White House has reportedly asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

[Munkus]

Still no COVID-19 cases in my valley, and only 9 (that we know of) in all of Montana. We're on partial lock down (gyms, dine-in restaurants, casinos, churches, etc are closed but grocery stores are exempt). The hoarding seems to have slowed, because the grocery stores are still stocked pretty well (no TP, paper towels, or wipes of course). Lots of produce, frozen foods, boxed foods, canned goods, etc.

[Shapeshifter]

If anyone's wondering why we're taking such drastic actions here in the U.S. it's because we're on a trajectory that models show aligns with us being about 10 days behind Italy in terms of disease spread and impact on our healthcare systems.

The Imperial college report that came out yesterday or so that the US and the UK both had seen before hand and is what made them change their tune.

Treat it like a normal flu like so many idiots espouse to online?

2.2 million dead in the US but more like 4+ after the hospitals are overrun and collapse from the strain.

mitigation strategy 2 million die

Suppression strategy "only" thousands+ die


Before that the UK wanted to go with a mitigation stance, and the US was going with an Ostrich stance.

[Munkus]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-...ever-seen.html

The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen

That's including losses caused by temporary closures, correct? I assume that those jobs will be re-filled when the businesses reopen, so IN THEORY the job gains in May or June should be good.

I dunno, we're in uncharted territory here. Anything is possible.

On a related note, 3 C-130s just flew over my house at low altitude, heading towards Glacier Airport. Which is odd, because 1) normal training exercises are done on Saturdays, 2) they usually only fly in pairs, and 3) they were so low I could count the rivets on the fuselage. National Guard mobilizing maybe? We're about an hour from the Canadian border...so I dunno. I think I should be worried.

[Shapeshifter]

That's including losses caused by temporary closures, correct? I assume that those jobs will be re-filled when the businesses reopen, so IN THEORY the job gains in May or June should be good.

I dunno, we're in uncharted territory here. Anything is possible.

On a related note, 3 C-130s just flew over my house at low altitude, heading towards Glacier Airport. Which is odd, because 1) normal training exercises are done on Saturdays, 2) they usually only fly in pairs, and 3) they were so low I could count the rivets on the fuselage. National Guard mobilizing maybe? We're about an hour from the Canadian border...so I dunno. I think I should be worried.

Italy is rolling out troops in the North after today's death spike.

[globalist]

Still no COVID-19 cases in my valley, and only 9 (that we know of) in all of Montana. We're on partial lock down (gyms, dine-in restaurants, casinos, churches, etc are closed but grocery stores are exempt). The hoarding seems to have slowed, because the grocery stores are still stocked pretty well (no TP, paper towels, or wipes of course). Lots of produce, frozen foods, boxed foods, canned goods, etc.

Has anybody already figured out why toilet paper, of all things, is the most coveted item for hoarders in these times? It's starting to feel like a *******g meme at this point.

[Evileh]

Even under the lockdown we can still travel to Pharmacies, Grocery Stores and Gas Stations. Must still have access to Cigarettes& Alcohol.
Not sure about the Cannabis Dispensaries. One site had restricted recreational sales to appointment only starting today. I'd assume the medical side would be the same, especially since they can order online and streamline pick-up times. No parking on the streets limited to the small parking lots.
Since it was posted before J.B. Pritzker's announcement today it's quite possible only medical card holders will have access if any.
Not really joking in times like these Stress relief is kind of fundemental.

Where in illinois do you live

[Munkus]

Has anybody already figured out why toilet paper, of all things, is the most coveted stockpile item in these times? It's starting to feel like a *******g meme at this point.

I wish I knew. I know people feel better knowing they can comfortably wipe their butts if they're quarantined for a month or so, but the whole thing just smacked of panic buying simply because "ZOMG TP is running out!".

[Pr3tty F1y]

Hope

Good news, everyone!

Super preliminary but very promising:

A new study whose results were published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents has found early evidence that the combination of hydroxychloroquine, a popular anti-malaria drug known under the trade name Plaqenuil, and antibiotic azithromycin (aka Zithromax or Azithrocin) could be especially effective in treating the COVID-19 coronavirus and reducing the duration of the virus in patients.

The researchers performed a study on 30 confirmed COVID-19 patients, treating each with either hydroxychloroquine on its own, a combination of the medicine with the antibiotic, as well as a control group that received neither. The study was conducted after reports from treatment of Chinese patients indicated that this particular combo had efficacy in shortening the duration of infection in patients.

The patient mix included in the study included six who showed no symptoms whatsoever, as well as 22 who had symptoms in their upper respiratory tract (things like sneezing, headaches and sore throats, and eight who showed lower respiratory tract symptoms (mostly coughing). 20 of the 30 participants in the study received treatment, and the results showed that while hydroxycholoroquine was effective on its own as a treatment, when combined with azithromycin it was even more effective, and by a significant margin.

These results represent a limited study with a small number of patients, but they are promising, especially when combined with earlier reports from patients in China with the same treatment options. Researchers globally are testing a number of potential treatments, including a range of drugs used previously in the efforts to combat Ebola, SARS, HIV and other global outbreaks.

There are no confirmed effective treatments specifically for COVID-19 to date, but regulators and medical researchers everywhere are working hard to get through the process of testing and approvals in search of something that can at least reduce the duration or severity of symptoms in patents. Vaccine development is also underway, but any approved and effective COVID-19 vaccine is at least 12-18 months away, even with resources redirected towards developing one as fast as is safety possible.

So, basically, very small sample, preliminary data from France but it matches the same results as China and repeatability like that is what can point in the direction of something promising.

[xCLAVEx]

I wish I knew. I know people feel better knowing they can comfortably wipe their butts if they're quarantined for a month or so, but the whole thing just smacked of panic buying simply because "ZOMG TP is running out!".

The saddest part of it all is that TP factories cannot "ramp up" the creation of TP because they are already a 24/7 operation during normal times. They can't make it any faster than it's already coming out. In fact, should their workforce start to get sick they will likely drop production and there will be even less TP...forcing yet another wave of TP hoarding.

This isn't stopping anytime soon.

[bill dennison]

The saddest part of it all is that TP factories cannot "ramp up" the creation of TP because they are already a 24/7 operation during normal times. They can't make it any faster than it's already coming out. In fact, should their workforce start to get sick they will likely drop production and there will be even less TP...forcing yet another wave of TP hoarding.

This isn't stopping anytime soon.

well sooner or later the asshole will run out of places to put it

TP takes up a lot of room

and i saw some in store today but i don't need it yet


........

Toilet Paper Makers’ Message to U.S. Consumers: We’ve Got This

Having seen toilet paper panic buying in Asia as the virus began spreading outside of China, U.S. manufacturers said they ramped up production to avoid being caught flat-footed.

Georgia-Pacific has increased shipments of its Quilted Northern and Angel Soft brands by about 120% above its normal capacity, according to company spokesman Eric Abercrombie. He declined to give specifics on supplies, but said inventories remain healthy.

Procter & Gamble Co. will make as much Charmin as Americans think they’ll need, said Rick McLeod, vice president of product supply for the company’s family care unit. He would not provide more production details but did say P&G has been in the midst of a months-long effort to increase supplies on hand.

Kimberly-Clark Inc. said its Scott brand will remain plentiful and that the company is both accelerating production and reallocating inventory to meet demand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...p-u-s-supplies

[OverclockN']

My local Hyvee I visit just posted an update on Facebook walking through their store. All the shelves are packed with milk, meat, bread, deli, pizzas, etc etc. I know where I'm headed at 5:00! Yay!

and i saw some in store today but i don't need it yet

Same here. I counted 7 rolls when this nonsense started and now I'm on 6. I'm good for a while with only me in the house. I'll buy when I get down to 4.

[kytprice]

Two confirmed cases in my small town. Forty more in isolation presumed infected awaiting final test results. They all show the correct signs and had close contact with a confirmed case. On another note it seems people are expecting the worst. Ammo is out of stock everywhere local/online you name it. Guns and ammo hoarding is here. One online vender Cheaper than Dirt is selling 9mm ammo for around a dollar a round.

[bob saget]

over the last week or so whats the trend been? im getting the sense there has been basically no change but i base that on basically nothing

[bill dennison]

Two confirmed cases in my small town. Forty more in isolation presumed infected awaiting final test results. They all show the correct signs and had close contact with a confirmed case. On another note it seems people are expecting the worst. Ammo is out of stock everywhere local/online you name it. Guns and ammo hoarding is here. One online vender Cheaper than Dirt is selling 9mm ammo for around a dollar a round.

i'm good still got a few times great grandfather rifle & ammo if it gets bad

[kytprice]

I wish I knew. I know people feel better knowing they can comfortably wipe their butts if they're quarantined for a month or so, but the whole thing just smacked of panic buying simply because "ZOMG TP is running out!".

LOL When I was young I can remember coal buckets filled with corn cobs in the corner of the outhouse. Or Sears and Roebuck catalogs hanging from a wire. You can survive without TP. Most just aren't old enough to remember how. I know I grew up in deliverance but I sure did learn how to survive.

[MasterGoa]

Because Trump unfortunately has this capacity to wander off outside of P&R topics and strays sometimes into more mainstream, what should be non-political conversations.

Today he was hyping up these treatments and I think it's worth reminding everyone that Trump isn't a medical expert or a health professional. The health experts are cautioning that more testing and research needs to be done. A lot more.

Trump is not a medical expert, however he has access to research outside of the US.

Tests have been extensively going on in China and the reports are encouraging.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

Unless you want to re-invent the wheel all over again state side.

[DeathKnight]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...p-u-s-supplies

Stores may be restocking as regularly as they can, but when the doors open early in the morning there's a bunch of people waiting to go in and get what they're allowed (probably a significant amount that already have gobs but are buying more). Before you know it they're out of stock again.

I think this whole TP fiasco started with social media and quickly snowballed.

[shrike126]

Trump is not a medical expert, however he has access to research outside of the US.

Tests have been extensively going on in China and the reports are encouraging.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

Unless you want to re-invent the wheel all over again state side.

Sure he does. But in today's press conference, right after Trump spoke, an actual medical professional immediately undercut much of his optimism and cautioned that we're still a ways away from an FDA approved and readily available treatment.

[koralis]

That's including losses caused by temporary closures, correct? I assume that those jobs will be re-filled when the businesses reopen, so IN THEORY the job gains in May or June should be good.

I dunno, we're in uncharted territory here. Anything is possible.
.

Yes, in theory they could all be hired back asap, but it'll probably be slower going. People have to start spending money first, and to spend money they have to have money, such as from a job, etc, etc. In the short term the money probably goes to accumulated debt and rebuilding the cash cusion to get comfortable. It's unlikely to be instant employment. It could take the better part of a year to recover.

[DarkFoss]

I just did a beer run. Fully stocked. Hard alcohol and wine, also good. I must have at least 5-6oz of weed plus a few vape pens.

Bring on the apocalypse.

Thats the way to do it.

Where in illinois do you live

Downers Grove midway between Chicago and Joliet basically. I can look out my window still 16 cars right now in the Burlington RR commuter lot(Chicago to Aurora). Trucks still coming and going from the Original Pepperidge Farm.

[MasterGoa]

More good news.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rus-says-china

https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/corona...aved-his-life/