In Europe, Italy is paralyzed by the pandemic, with cities quarantined, industry shut down, and a mounting death rate. In the United States, the government continues to stumble in its own efforts to prevent an Italian scenario. The president has shut down some incoming flights from Europe but testing is well below where it should be and there are experts who believe the virus is now running rampant through the country.
How far behind is their testing? As of yesterday (March 12), Canada had conducted over a thousand more tests than the United States, and we are one-tenth the size. As a result of testing and other measures, the growth rate of the virus is substantially lower in Canada, increasing at a rate of under 20 per cent per day. By comparison, in the U.S. confirmed cases are growing at an average rate of 40 per cent over the last seven days. In one analysis of WHO data, Canada is doubling the number of infected every six days, while the US is doing so every two days. They are on track to reach Italian levels of infection within the next two weeks.
As a result, the single most likely vector for the coronavirus to spread into Canada, without question, is the movement of people across our southern border.
So it is not surprising that this morning the Canadian government, following the lead of some provinces, called for Canadians to avoid all international travel. That includes travel into the United States. And, in an interview with CBC, the Prime Minister did not rule out going further. When asked if he would close the border, he replied, “We are in the midst of looking at this … We’re in the midst of evaluating day-to-day what to do.”
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