Official Thread: Coronavirus "COVID-19"

[DaJMasta]

The percentage will go up for current cases, but will probably go down with additional ones - it is somewhat deadly, but the VAST majority of deaths are older folks, people being treated for something else, or people with otherwise compromised immune systems. Some of the earlier deaths are just because of poor identification/catching it late, which since awareness is now high, is much less likely.




The cruise ship has been in quarantine for about two weeks, though a large portion of the passengers did get the disease (something like 20-25%), so this outbreak has been largely contained (localized to the ship) for some time and is starting to drop off in terms of new cases.




I honestly see nothing that suggests even 1M infected total in the outbreak, let alone 500M. There are 'active'/not well contained outbreaks in Iran and Italy, but the response to new outbreaks is fairly swift, and even those are only in the low hundreds of recorded cases - which while a significant risk if left unchecked, were caught early enough to prevent pandemic scale. Remember, pandemic sort of spreading is exponential growth curves of cases, and while it did show that into early February, it's been linear and flattening out since.


Sure, not every case is documented and there is still potential for outbreak elsewhere, but there is no active powder-keg and there is no evidence the quarantine/sanitation efforts have been ineffective in stopping the spread - quite the opposite. It's big, about 1 in 100,000 people in the world have it, and it has the potential to blow up, but it is certainly not pandemic level and there are not signs of that happening now.

[nutcrackr]

Spanish Flu is about 10% then, although the numbers are pretty unreliable. Back then our knowledge was fairly limited and so we're in a better position to contain and treat. If it broke loose in europe / america etc then you'd have huge disruptions because they'd lock places down. Schools would shut. People would rush out to buy stuff causing supply issues. Some businesses would close for a time.

[DorXtar]

[yt]eoltaINH7JI[/yt]

[Shapeshifter]

https://twitter.com/AP_Sports/status...16401773416448

IOC member Dick Pound says Tokyo Olympic organizers have until late May to see if the virus is under control. If not, "you're probably looking at a cancellation."

[nutcrackr]

Cancelling the Olympics is a big deal. My internet friend is headed for Japan in May and I'm thinking he may not be going.

[DaJMasta]

Yeah, the Olympics would probably be the biggest cancellation I can think of aside from like continent wide lockdowns.... but it makes sense. That's a ton of people from a ton of places, all in close proximity.

[shrike126]

In the U.S. without a solid healthcare system to keep patient costs down, a visit to a hospital for testing cost this man over a thousand out of pocket. News reports on stuff like this are going to discourage people from going to hospitals or even doctor visits to get checked out. People will just tell themselves "it's probably just a cold" and wait it out to save a thousand or two.

A Miami man has received a nearly $3,500 medical bill after getting coronavirus tests following his trip to China.*

Osmel Martinez Azcue returned from a work trip last month to China and discovered he was feeling flu-like symptoms. Worried about the coronavirus, the man decided to go to a*Florida hospital to get tested, according to the*Miami Herald.*

Testing revealed Mr Azcue had the flu, not the coronavirus. But his limited health insurance left him with a bill of $3,270 two weeks after his test. He will be responsible for $1,400 of that bill.*

"How can they expect normal citizens to contribute to eliminating the potential risk of person-to-person spread if hospitals are waiting to charge us $3,270 for a simple blood test and a nasal swab?" Mr*Azcue told the newspaper.

Mr Azcue previously had insurance through the Affordable Care Act. He picked that insurance as he makes $55,000 through his job at a medical-device company, and it does not provide a health insurance plan.*

Once he first purchased the plan, he was paying $278 per month. These premiums then shot up to $400 once his full salary kicked in, forcing the man to cancel the*coverage and pay $180 per month for a limited plan through National General Insurance.*

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9358146.html

Turn a few people who can't afford this loose in NYC and see how long it takes before parts of the U.S. start shutting down.

[AllexxisF1]

Went to Costco this afternoon and got three months of food.

Achievement unlocked.

You probably wouldn’t think that buying a 50lb bag of rice and a sleeve of canned sardines makes you feel like man.

But it does.

Tons O food that we normally eat, so nothing to feel stupid about.

N95 mask check.
Food stuff check.

Anybody know anything about guns?

[Shapeshifter]

For home defense a shotgun. For hunting a rifle.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...-suggests.html

Iran may have many more coronavirus cases than reported, Canadian research suggests

The true number of coronavirus cases in Iran may be upwards of 18,000, according to a preliminary analysis by Canadian researchers, suggesting an epidemic there nearly 200 times larger than what the country has reported — and a situation with potentially grave global consequences.

A spokesperson for Iran’s health ministry said Tuesday that the country had 95 confirmed cases of COVID-19, as the disease caused by the novel coronavirus is called, and 15 deaths.

[bill dennison]

For home defense a shotgun. For hunting a rifle.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...-suggests.html

Iran may have many more coronavirus cases than reported, Canadian research suggests

check

https://kalashnikov-usa.com/guns/ks12-shotgun/

[pax]

Really guys... Sick people arent gonna come for your ****.

I still think people are panicking early here. For all we know the exposure rate is orders of magnitude that of those who got sick. Making the actual death rate minuscule. We have been exposed to coronaviruses for ages. Our immune system has been built up against innumerable versions of it. Like with repeat taking of flu vaccines the immunity build up only goes up with time. Especially with a bug that causes something as often as the common cold.

[dodger]

check

https://kalashnikov-usa.com/guns/ks12-shotgun/

That's an interesting shotgun. I always pictured one with those big brown movey part under the barrel where just the sound of it being loaded made people run away.

[bill dennison]

Really guys... Sick people arent gonna come for your ****.

I still think people are panicking early here. For all we know the exposure rate is orders of magnitude that of those who got sick. Making the actual death rate minuscule. We have been exposed to coronaviruses for ages. Our immune system has been built up against innumerable versions of it. Like with repeat taking of flu vaccines the immunity build up only goes up with time. Especially with a bug that causes something as often as the common cold.

no but looters and rioters that did not stock food and stuff may

and i have had it for 2 years

That's an interesting shotgun. I always pictured one with those big brown movey part under the barrel where just the sound of it being loaded made people run away.

yep got a few of them they are great for hunting not for home defense

too long inside and too much recoil and a lot of the recoil is used up in the action

ks-12 has a 10 round mag or a 20 round drum


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpKHqBgpLSM

[bob saget]

anyone else getting ready for the apocalypse by not buying a shotgun?

[dodger]

anyone else getting ready for the apocalypse by not buying a shotgun?

No not buying, got too many kids crawling around fetching their balls or frisbees and because of them will probably catch this thing when it finally spreads here. Good news I guess is that this strain doesn't seem to target the young as much. Haven't heard much about infants and kids succumbing to this yet.

[nutcrackr]

Iran: 16 deaths and 95 confirmed
Italy: 10 deaths and 322 confirmed
South Korea: 12 deaths and 1146 confirmed

Methinks Iran has an outbreak and they're not taking it seriously. Although they have one of the worst health care systems in the world. The health guy said quarantine is "old-fashioned" and they don't believe in it.

Time to put out a "no fly" to or from Iran.

[DaJMasta]

Time to put out a "no fly" to or from Iran.

Doesn't most of the world have that already? They did shoot down a Ukrainian passenger liner going to one of their own airports just a few months ago...




But yeah, I think Iran's quarantine will be the least effective. Supposedly they were claiming the initial cases came from their western border, and that the only cases in Iraq came across the border from Iran before they had closed them for quarantine.

[Munkus]

I was watching a news report about Iran's outbreak, and I think it's even worse than they're saying. Apparently it's in a Muslim holy city and there's been some kind of celebration going on, with pilgrims converging on the city from all over the world. Those pilgrims catch the virus and then go home.

[Athena]

Really guys... Sick people arent gonna come for your ****.

I still think people are panicking early here. For all we know the exposure rate is orders of magnitude that of those who got sick. Making the actual death rate minuscule. We have been exposed to coronaviruses for ages. Our immune system has been built up against innumerable versions of it. Like with repeat taking of flu vaccines the immunity build up only goes up with time. Especially with a bug that causes something as often as the common cold.

This is version 19. From the data I have gathered it seems to hit people that smoke the hardest and the rest of us it is basically a common cold. That is why it is bad in China they smoke like we did in the 20's and 50's. They also eat a lot of raw crappy food that carries the virus. That is why they keep pointing to this animal and that one. The other thing is this bugger of a bug spreads like a mofo. If you have healthy lungs should be ok.

So the other question is why are scientists and medical professionals that are trained to work with viruses kicking the bucket from this bug in China? That is confusing to me.
.

[shrike126]

This is version 19. From the data I have gathered it seems to hit people that smoke the hardest and the rest of us it is basically a common cold. That is why it is bad in China they smoke like we did in the 20's and 50's. They also eat a lot of raw crappy food that carries the virus. That is why they keep pointing to this animal and that one. The other thing is this bugger of a bug spreads like a mofo. If you have healthy lungs should be ok.

So the other question is why are scientists and medical professionals that are trained to work with viruses kicking the bucket from this bug in China? That is confusing to me.
.

Where did you get the version 19 thing from?

[dodger]

So the other question is why are scientists and medical professionals that are trained to work with viruses kicking the bucket from this bug in China? That is confusing to me.

I've been hearing that many of them are going in with inadequate medical supplies and in many parts of the world there's a N95 mask shortage because China has been slurping up supplies like crazy.

[AllexxisF1]

In four days Italy went from the transmission of less than 2 to over 229 in four days. What is most concerning is the fatality rate within that one week.

229 infected with 7 deaths - 3% in the first week is a lot. The published medical literature from China case studies so far has shown that complications typically occur in the second week when people die. In Italy, they're seeing it in the first few days. All of which were elderly with underlying complications. Moreover even more concerning, is 13% of the 229 that are considered critical, which means oxygen support.

Follow the data, if that percentage holds for communities it's going to make delivering critical respiratory care provisioning very challenging. Which screws with the mortality rate. Right now people who are infected outside Wuhan are getting the best care. What happens *IF* beds start filling up.

This is why Italy and South Korea are so important now. Both have world-class healthcare systems and are openly reporting data to the world. That way we will have a better handle on the pandemic.

Remember, what happens in Europe will happen here. In two days Italy went from nothing to full quarantine to closed schools with no food on store shelves. The second a similar small outbreak happens here in the States the same panic will ensue. Not to mention the media which will sensationalize the whole thing.

Go out and buy the food you would normally eat for two months. Just do it. Worst case, this peters out and you end up eating the food anyway.

[DorXtar]

Fasting is not a bad idea. If you're already keto/fat-adapted, you can fast for a while.

[bill dennison]

Where did you get the version 19 thing from?

COVID-19 i think


that is the year it started not version 19


lets make it sound like version 1 to 18 failed

............

Coronavirus' Top Targets: Men, Seniors, Smokers

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...eniors-smokers

it's got me worried about my 90 year old parents

[Greasy]

Have ammo, so I'm not worried about the defense thingy.

Need to hit BJs to stock up on canned goods, and other stuff we normally eat. Freezer is pretty much full already. I work from home, and the wife doesn't work, so hopefully if it does hit this area they just close the damn schools and send assignments home for the kids to work on.

[kytprice]

check

https://kalashnikov-usa.com/guns/ks12-shotgun/

I don't know about recommending basically a saiga to a new shooter Bill. Especially with their finicky gas systems. High power low power shells to much danger of a jam. But that's just me. I recommend something with a automatic gas system like the Mossberg 930 SPX.

[nutcrackr]

A northern California person has contracted the coronavirus without traveling outside the United States or coming in contact with another patient known to have the infection

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...036_story.html

[bill dennison]

I don't know about recommending basically a saiga to a new shooter Bill. Especially with their finicky gas systems. High power low power shells to much danger of a jam. But that's just me. I recommend something with a automatic gas system like the Mossberg 930 SPX.

find a shell it likes and stick with it .

like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6cmGHz-4O4


and the US made Kalashnikov are a little less finicky and better made
but you still need to shoot them in

[Greasy]

My MKA 1919 Match Pro runs well with pretty much anything after about 50 hot rounds through it.

It's my wrong house mofo machine.

Saw something on yahoo today that said N95 masks don't really protect from this anyway. No idea if that's actually true though.

[bill dennison]

wish it was 115f in phoenix now

[Shapeshifter]

My MKA 1919 Match Pro runs well with pretty much anything after about 50 hot rounds through it.

It's my wrong house mofo machine.

Saw something on yahoo today that said N95 masks don't really protect from this anyway. No idea if that's actually true though.

if it was true then medical personal wouldn't bother to wear them. They get uncomfortable as hell before long, stuffy and hot.

[bill dennison]

if it was true then medical personal wouldn't bother to wear them. They get uncomfortable as hell before long, stuffy and hot.

try using one in a 150f attic

when they get soaking wet with sweat you can't breathe

[pax]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...036_story.html

If they got the incubation duration wrong by almost 2x maybe they got the survivability of the virus outside the body wrong as well. Maybe this guy ordered some stuff direct from China and it was contaminated... And so did I when I think of it... like 3 different orders from Wish and other outlets this winter.

[Nunz]

Lmao people stocking on food like the plague is coming. This **** is so blown out of proportion it's insane.

[globalist]

Lmao people stocking on food like the plague is coming. This **** is so blown out of proportion it's insane.

[DeathKnight]

Lmao people stocking on food like the plague is coming. This **** is so blown out of proportion it's insane.

This.

[AllexxisF1]

Lmao people stocking on food like the plague is coming. This **** is so blown out of proportion it's insane.

You can't eat your video card Nunz.

*Dips chips into vat of salsa.

[Munkus]

I'm stocking up on food, water, and ammo.

Wait, no I'm not.

I can honestly say the scariest thing about this virus is the way people are over-reacting to it.

[Lazy8s]

I'm stocking up on food, water, and ammo.

Wait, no I'm not.

I can honestly say the scariest thing about this virus is the way people are over-reacting to it.

That's the whole point here where I am. A person 200 miles away can be diagnosed with it and full scale riots will be breaking out in grocery stores and WalMarts.

In other words, business as usual.

[Munkus]

That's the whole point here where I am. A person 200 miles away can be diagnosed with it and full scale riots will be breaking out in grocery stores and WalMarts.

In other words, business as usual.

Same. I’m glad I live in the boonies. The only reason I see to stock up on stuff is so I don’t have to go into town if/when the idiots start rioting. But somehow I doubt that will happen. Rural Montana has a tough breed of “live and let live” people. We’re content to let the world burn while we mind our own business.