Nvidia 270/290 in deep trouble

[JesterOnYer6]

GT200 based GX2 dead as well
By Charlie Demerjian: Tuesday, 04 November 2008, 6:21 AM



IT LOOKS LIKE Nvidia's run of bad luck is continuing. The latest word is that the GT200b is in for another respin, that would be the third. This means the 270 and 290 are effectively delayed until February, and the GX2 part is quite dead.
If you recall, the original plan was to have them out for the Nehalem launch on the 17th, an ambitious goal considering the timing on the last respin. Since that spin failed, it is a moot point, but word is that NV will put something out on the market.
Since this is (was?) a simple optical shrink, there are going to be no new features, so that leaves better power, higher clocks, and lower prices as an option. Since most if not all GT200 based parts are selling at little if any profit – we hear 260s are under water, 280s barely above – don't look for price being the point the wheel-o-semicoductor-planning stops on.
That leaves power and speed. Unfortunately, the shrink is a mess and not working out well at all, so neither of those features panned out. Where does that leave us? With a shrunken GT200 that doesn't really perform any better or worse than the current part, but gives NV a little better breathing room. That is the current best case.
With that in mind, NV is probably going to slipstream 55nm parts into the mix, likely without much fanfare. Anything more would gut the eventual 270/290 launch, if they can get the shrink done right, and that is a big if right now. The other tactic, and don't put it past them, is to launch an upclocked 55nm part to try and gain back the halo.
It will be interesting if the company tries this, it can't make them in commercial quantities, so it would be a press + 200 for Newegg only part. The downside would be to eat Christmas sales, the upside would be to stroke their collective egos. Given the egos involved, this is a tough one to call from the peanut gallery.
That brings us to the GX2/dual card. Suppliers tell us that it is quite dead. We thought it was an impossible thing to pull off when we first analysed the part, and it looks like several universal physical constants agreed with us. Thermodynamics is a bitch.
So in the end, NV has what it has now, PR stunts aside, until February. If it hot lots a few wafers, and don't look for TSMC to be doing it favors right now, that would put it at September 1 + 20 weeks.
Throw in a little time for testing, not that the concept seems to matter much at NV, and you are into February.
No wonder ATI cards are on allocation. µ

Interesting.....

[JethroBodine]

Originally Posted by JesterOnYer6

Interesting.....

Mainly to guys like you who lap up Charlie's FUD because it suits your own anti NVIDIA agenda. (and then conveniently move on when he's proven wrong and biased time and time again)

Tough breaks Jesteronyer6- even with products as strong as the 4800 series the market only swung 2 points back to AMD, and NVIDIA didn't go out of business, lose all their partners, and all the other bad things you quoted Charlie on.

Better luck next time.

[SIrPauly]

55nm GT200 confirmed, again

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?op...10311&Itemid=1

Is the Inquirer right or is FudZilla right? Hehe!

[HonestJohn]

Originally Posted by SIrPauly

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?op...10311&Itemid=1

Is the Inquirer right or is FudZilla right? Hehe!

You beat me to it. I just posted this on another forum where the Enquirer Link was posted. Here's the rest of it and it's dated today.

It’s alive

We don't have any additional details, but sometime in December we should finally see Nvidia's refresh of the GT200 series and this time it will be a 55nm chip. The introduction might even take place in November, but the real McCoy will come in December.

Naturally, it should end up cooler and faster, probably clocked a bit higher than the current GT200, and it could be paired up in a dual card, the rumored dual GT200 55nm card, that is.

Nvidia hopes to narrow the gap between ATI cards and its own, or if all goes well to get the performance crown back. This is Nvidia’s only hope, as its real hope, the 40nm chips, are coming March 2009 at the earliest, and we suspect that Q2 2009 is a much more realistic time frame. Until then, they have to try to fight ATI with all they have.

[SIrPauly]

I witnessed the Inquirer's piece but waited for Jester to offer the link, hehe! Probably some truth in there but again, with Charlie, you need to decipher his information like it's some ancient language using some complicated PR hieroglyphs back in the day. Charlie talks in riddles and allows in out so he can always state he was right.

Personally don't know what to expect and would like to see more improved choices moving forward. ATI did gain marketshare and does offer compelling products and having more improved nVidia products would be welcomed.

[JesterOnYer6]

Well ole Charlie was wrong about the R600 but the ailing mobile chipsets he was spot on. Really I could give a crap on either side I am off the AMD wagon and on to Intel I would possibly have gone back to Nvidia but the marketing FUD and forum spinners make me ill.

[acroig]

Originally Posted by JesterOnYer6

forum spinners make me ill.

Me too.

[HonestJohn]

Originally Posted by acroig

Me too.

Me Three.

[SIrPauly]

Originally Posted by JesterOnYer6

Well ole Charlie was wrong about the R600 but the ailing mobile chipsets he was spot on. Really I could give a crap on either side I am off the AMD wagon and on to Intel I would possibly have gone back to Nvidia but the marketing FUD and forum spinners make me ill.

Marketing and politics are part of the machine that is business and personally simply accept it and move forward. If the company's don't take care of themselves who will? Understand the mentality and try to decipher PR or agendas from reality and they all do it.

[noko]

Sad news if true if Nvidia is having problems progressing forward. I worry more about resources be diverted to just a respin with current technology and less pushing forward future technologies. Now I am pro ATI and pro Nvidia? Can't we all live together . All the same, I hope Nvidia does put out something new in the near future that puts the fear on ATI, well I hope the same for ATI to Nvidia.

[JesterOnYer6]

Originally Posted by SIrPauly

Marketing and politics are part of the machine that is business and personally simply accept it and move forward. If the company's don't take care of themselves who will? Understand the mentality and try to decipher PR or agendas from reality and they all do it.

Show me the specs the benches from several sites I make my decision, Nvidia puts it's marketing spin in my face when I play the games.

[SIrPauly]

Originally Posted by JesterOnYer6

Show me the specs the benches from several sites I make my decision, Nvidia puts it's marketing spin in my face when I play the games.
I don't need some guy on the forums I frequent jamming marketing **** down my throat and until Nvidia stops that I will continue buying ATi in spite.

Personally don't have any problems with focus members because it is clearly offered. I did have a problem when it was secret -- was pissed off to no end.

Personally think it is good for forums to have a focus at times because:

1) May inform others about what nVidia products may and may not do.

2) May help others that are having problems and desire information.

3) When there is a negative or wrong information about nVidia products -- it may be corrected.

This would work well for me with an ATI focus as well. It's a fine-line at times how information is offered and Jethro is a lightning rod at times and has some of the thickest skin I 've ever seen in forums.

The hardware is the hardware and when a company delivers the goods there is only so much marketing can actually do. Sure, it helps but if a focus member of any company offers misleading information -- they will be called on it. What makes me buy ATI or nVidia isn't focus members or PR but the actual products and what they can do for PC gaming as a whole. Gaming is too important than the color or name of the company but grateful for competition and innovation........so if I choose one over the other -- certainly want the other to do well and continue to push and drive the industry forward as well.

[Dungeoncrawler]

...so this means we should see the new version of rivatuner released soon ?

Dc

[Jokerzwild]

Nay! I won't close this thread as that shows we can't have a civil discussion, which I firmly believe we CAN. I will use this post to address those that are engaged in the behavior that led to me getting involved. You know who you are, please stop. No more warnings. I can't close a thread just because a few can't control their behavior.

[Anth Seebel]

Jester always posts INQ articles and claims "oh Nvidia is in trouble'' FUD.. he and his posts are trying start flame wars, why do rage3d mods entertain this, they interseted in ppl on a hatetrain ?

It is boring and useless thread, kill the threads immediate ly(delete them -like Mods do to our responses to these threads).

MOds let a thread like this stay ? man, that logic escapes me.

[Jokerzwild]

Why should I say what can and cannot be talked about here? Should I start checking all discussions to see if they meet certain criteria before they're started? It's easy, if you disagree with the OP, refute it or leave it alone. Then it will either spark a debate (which is good) or die.

Simply I cannot close threads because I feel they paint something in a bad light. Now seriously, discuss the thread or let it die.

[VW_Factor]

I discussed the thread, and you deleted. Which I can say doesnt surprise me much, just as much as it doesnt surprise me that Jester continues with his anti Nv bull****. If useful discussion can be had with some posters, it would have happened. It has not, and likely will not in the future.

But yeah. I agree. **** like this is ****ing stupid.

Thanks for the help anyways JW.

[Jokerzwild]

I can do no right .


It's ok, I keep tryin and one day you guys will see I always had your best interests at heart . Hell if the discussion's over I'll close the thing, I'm just sick of having to close threads because of a disagreement. Imagine how many threads would be closed in P&R if Azure's patience was as thin as mine usually is . I'm trying to be more tolerant .

[caveman-jim]

Simple solution - no posting Fudzilla or Inquirer links outside of the rumour mills without corroboration from another source.

[Jokerzwild]

Originally Posted by caveman-jim

Simple solution - no posting Fudzilla or Inquirer links outside of the rumour mills without corroboration from another source.

Hmm... good idea, I'll bring it up with the powers that be.

In the meantime I'm going with my gut reaction seeings as the thread has turned into a debate on my moderation techniques. I try to be tolerant and all I get is crap, I'll remember this.