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Old Feb 6, 2020, 09:32 AM   #1
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acroig
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Default Why AMD’s best days are behind it

"Last year, AMD should have made significant gains in servers and PCs. After all, Intel had an interim CEO, faced supply shortages and missed its target dates to launch a number of new platforms. Meanwhile, AMD came to market with 7nm chip variants for its client and data center. Essentially, AMD had the better chip technology and Intel in some cases couldn’t even ship product.

But rather than run away with market share, AMD made only a few small dents to Intel’s business — mostly in PCs. And because Intel had periods where it couldn’t deliver its newest products or products at all, it begs the question of whether AMD had convinced PC buyers with its “better technology” or merely benefited from having supplies when Intel did not."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...-it-2020-02-06

Don't think I agree with this, what you guys think?
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Old Feb 6, 2020, 11:00 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acroig View Post
"Last year, AMD should have made significant gains in servers and PCs. After all, Intel had an interim CEO, faced supply shortages and missed its target dates to launch a number of new platforms. Meanwhile, AMD came to market with 7nm chip variants for its client and data center. Essentially, AMD had the better chip technology and Intel in some cases couldn’t even ship product.

But rather than run away with market share, AMD made only a few small dents to Intel’s business — mostly in PCs. And because Intel had periods where it couldn’t deliver its newest products or products at all, it begs the question of whether AMD had convinced PC buyers with its “better technology” or merely benefited from having supplies when Intel did not."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...-it-2020-02-06

Don't think I agree with this, what you guys think?
Uh, no. They are making this claim based on Data Center sales.

They also don't understand how Companies plan, develop, and Allocate funds for upgrades or building new data centers. What they sold last year, most of the funds, planning, and contracts where long before 2019, with most of it being done in 2017 to mid 2018. There is no way that AMD could go to such companies in 2017, early 2018 and convince them to use their "better" technology before it was even available in 2019. There is also the "Trust" factor. Many have relied on Intel for years, and it will take time for AMD to build the same level of "Trust".

An Example is the company I work for: they have spent the last 2 years planning, seeking investors, testing and researching equipment for a big expansions (new equipment, additional equipment, etc). They finalized it all last month (funds, equipment, etc). They won't break ground until the middle of next year.
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Old Feb 6, 2020, 11:03 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWR_Midnight View Post
Uh, no. They are making this claim based on Data Center sales.

They also don't understand how Companies plan, develop, and Allocate funds for upgrades or building new data centers. What they sold last year, most of the funds, planning, and contracts where long before 2019, with most of it being done in 2017 to mid 2018. There is no way that AMD could go to such companies in 2017, early 2018 and convince them to use their "better" technology before it was even available in 2019. There is also the "Trust" factor. Many have relied on Intel for years, and it will take time for AMD to build the same level of "Trust".

An Example is the company I work for: they have spent the last 2 years planning, seeking investors, testing and researching equipment for a big expansions (new equipment, additional equipment, etc). They finalized it all last month (funds, equipment, etc). They won't break ground until the middle of next year.
All good points, thanks.
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Old Feb 6, 2020, 11:05 AM   #4
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I did read that supply was tight for amd and that might be killing some oem sales who need volume. Its selling just about every cpu it can make and DYI is buying most of it. It cant make more as 7nm is sold out at TSMC for now.

But. Apple will switch to 5nm in the 2H leaving its huge 7nm slot at TSMC up for grabs and looks like AMD will buy all of it. We'll see if AMD can keep on growing with it then which should allow it to reach in the range of 30-40% market share.
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Old Feb 6, 2020, 02:43 PM   #5
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https://twitter.com/danielnewmanuv/s...684929?lang=en


a real Intel pocket puppet


the kickbacks and payments to use Intel will start soon if not already
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Old Feb 10, 2020, 07:24 AM   #6
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This is unfortunately the way "news" organizations run their places nowadays.

Spectacular titles for clicks and revenue...

Look at the comments section for a laugh.
But if you do, you are incentivising them to spew out more crap like this
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Old Feb 10, 2020, 11:38 AM   #7
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Actually if you consider when Zen landed, it was at massively lucky time.

Zen sucked against the 7700K and it was 14nm
Zen+ held clawed it's way to relevance against the 8700K and it is 12nm.
Zen 2 is more or less equal to the 9700K and it is 7nm/12nm combo.
Zen 2 APUs will be pure 7nm and monolithic. What's a little concerning though is AMD has killed PCIe 4 for mobile and haven't said if the desktop ones will have it.

Intel has been struggling with making the cobalt wires work. Something the other fabs haven't had to do yet. Also there's the fact that the 10nm Intel chips are faster in IPC than Zen 2.

So AMD has to keep it's foot to the floor, because Intel is coming.

There's also the fact that the other fabs actually use a normally small part to say this is their size. So Intel's 10nm is actually in some ways smaller than 7nm. So AMD has to scramble because their node advantage is vanishing.

One of my biggest concerns with AMD CPUs is that the dies aren't welded on like with Intel. They are soldered, so they are hugely susceptible to solder cracking due to different thermal expansion coefficients. With the 3000 Zen 2 parts you already have very different thermal capacities with the 12nm IO die and the 7nm CCXs. I don't think as a result we'll see many of them make a decade of use. I mean I still have Core 2 machines as Daily drivers.

Mobile is even harder on those joints, which is why I suspect that the mobile Zen 2 chippies are monolithic. You luckily on desktop don't have the same kind of temperature swings even the crummy stock coolers provide a significant amount of thermal dampening. In most laptops you'll be lucky to have 100 grams of cooler not including the fan. NV found this out the hard way when they cut corners on the solder and mobile GPUs were dieing like popcorn. GPUs are still the most likely point of failure for that.

All in all...

AMD got hugely lucky and has had time to sort out the weaknesses of Zen while Intel has struggled. AMD has only so long before Intel gets their shiza sorted and like I said Intel is coming.

I don't think Intel will crush AMD like they did when AMD went Slowdozer, but I balso don't think that AMD is going to get another K8/K9 vs Pentium D situation. I think we'll see actual competition with both trading blows.
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Last edited by gamefoo21 : Feb 10, 2020 at 12:04 PM.
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