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Old Yesterday, 09:20 PM   #421
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DaJMasta
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Originally Posted by 0091/2 View Post
What kind of things would you stock-up on? Cold med, tissue and hand soap?

There was already a rush on masks, but honestly it's one of the ones that make sense.




For the hard hit places there are restrictions on public gathering, so it may be trickier than normal to get food - but if they actually restrict to that point, they sort of have to give out rations.

People like to overreact to perceived threats, cue preppers making underground clean-bunkers
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Old Yesterday, 09:34 PM   #422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metroidfox View Post
The death rate of this Wuhan virus is about 2-3%.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981


For a frame of reference, the flu's is 12%-13%.


If only we treated the flu with this much care.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy8s View Post

Uh, no! Death rate of the flu is .12 to .13% not 12 to 13%. (my second link shows < 0.1% for the flu)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...fatality_rates
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Old Yesterday, 09:37 PM   #423
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We need that global warming to kick in right about now, and make it summer.

History books in 20 years. "World global financial collapse caused by Chinese wet market". Also 20 years in the future in China, "you want live bat with your room temp fish?"

As for prep, maybe a sword? Seemed to work well in the walking dead. Never runs out of ammo...
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Old Yesterday, 09:39 PM   #424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greasy View Post
As for prep, maybe a sword? Seemed to work well in the walking dead. Never runs out of ammo...

Doesn't do much against a stray cough, though
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Old Yesterday, 10:13 PM   #425
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If they cared enough they would pump 10-20 billion into a more rapid vaccine development process.

But they arent. Couple items of note recently found out about the virus its incubation period is longer than 14 days which was used for quarantine. one patient tested positive only developed symptoms 27 days later.

And we are pretty sure now that those who are asymptomatic are also contagious.

This guarantees this thing is widespread now.
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Old Yesterday, 10:42 PM   #426
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaJMasta View Post
Doesn't do much against a stray cough, though
Think bigger like zombie Apocalypse.
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Old Yesterday, 10:43 PM   #427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaJMasta View Post
There was already a rush on masks, but honestly it's one of the ones that make sense.




For the hard hit places there are restrictions on public gathering, so it may be trickier than normal to get food - but if they actually restrict to that point, they sort of have to give out rations.

People like to overreact to perceived threats, cue preppers making underground clean-bunkers
I want to be over ready. Is it the right time to stock up this? or Will the price go up later?
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Old Yesterday, 11:28 PM   #428
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Italy going into lockdown must be pretty scary for the residents. The long incubation is really going to make the issue a lot worse. This could shut down the world economy for a few months if it gets loose.
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Old Yesterday, 11:47 PM   #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutcrackr View Post
Italy going into lockdown must be pretty scary for the residents. The long incubation is really going to make the issue a lot worse. This could shut down the world economy for a few months if it gets loose.
could shut my economy if it gets here

hello visa mastercard i got the plague from a customer so your payments will have to wait
or send the bill to china they made this ****



how the hell do you work on peoples houses with this running rampant


so tell me what is your AC doing



yea that will be fun at 115f
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Old Yesterday, 11:56 PM   #430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0091/2 View Post
I want to be over ready. Is it the right time to stock up this? or Will the price go up later?



Ships in 105 business days, seems we're too late
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Old Today, 01:56 AM   #431
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Originally Posted by 0091/2 View Post
I want to be over ready. Is it the right time to stock up this? or Will the price go up later?
I've got a rear entry I could sell ya
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Old Today, 08:39 AM   #432
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The Wife and I agreed and came up with an expanded monthly Costco buy. Instead of buying for one month, we'll buy for two.

The guidelines we gave ourselves is the food we buy is what we would normally eat. So if this does peter out, we just keep on moving with our normal diets.

Like 100lb sack of rice, crackers, peanut butter, Gatorade, nuts, canned fruits/ham/veggies, tuna, pasta, pasta sauce, etc. Large garbage bags and tarp.

Since I bbq lots in the summer, I might as well buy three bags of charcoal now, when it's even cheaper.

Here's my rough game plan and decision barriers I'm giving myself. Still trying to figure things out. Just taking it slow and steady.

Step 1 (completed a month ago)
Buy N95 masks. <- New this would sell out regardless.

Step 2
Buy two months' worth of food Costco. Buy normal medicines (need to refill anyway).

-----------------------------------------------------
Decision Barrier (Small outbreak major U.S. city)
-----------------------------------------------------

Buy one or two months' worth of food at Costco.
Start car-gas 1/2 rule. When the tanks get to 1/2, we fill them back up.

-------------------------------------------------------
Decision Barrier (Widespread outbreaks in other parts of the country)
-------------------------------------------------------
TBD

-------------------------------------------------------
Decision Barrier (Small outbreak in Virginia/DC Metro area)
-------------------------------------------------------
Take kids out of school.
Work from home.

-------------------------------------------------------
Decision Barrier (major outbreak in Virginia/DC Metro area)
-------------------------------------------------------
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Old Today, 10:30 AM   #433
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My work place will require me to come in anyways so me and my family are screwed no matter what. Unless the government shuts down everything for a whole month. I do have the ability to work from home in case of viral outbreak. They just wont let me. Which makes me wonder why we bought all the equipment and have it in the policy for the FDIC that I can. O_o
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Old Today, 12:48 PM   #434
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CDC saying it's not a mater of If but when it starts to spread.

That now is the time for businesses, hospitals and communities/schools to begin to prepare.

Disruption to everyday life might be severe," says @DrNancyM_CDC. She said she told her children this morning, "While I didn't think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives."
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Old Today, 12:52 PM   #435
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Quote:
Step 2
Buy two months' worth of food Costco. Buy normal medicines (need to refill anyway).
https://www.costco.com/all-emergency-food.html

Stuff is selling out quick.
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Old Today, 02:00 PM   #436
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Both the CDC and Health Canada have now stated to prepare for a pandemic.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...virus-pandemic


Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic

Quote:
"It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-virus-update

CDC Tells Americans to Start Readying for Outbreak
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Old Today, 02:30 PM   #437
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Athena View Post
My work place will require me to come in anyways so me and my family are screwed no matter what. Unless the government shuts down everything for a whole month. I do have the ability to work from home in case of viral outbreak. They just wont let me. Which makes me wonder why we bought all the equipment and have it in the policy for the FDIC that I can. O_o
Sorry but sometimes you have to say to hell with your workplace. You obviously know this. But, if things get THAT bad family has to come first. Extreme situation of course.
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Old Today, 02:38 PM   #438
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I'm fortunate that I live in a isolated rural environment. Storm shelter the whole nine yards. After reading the updates in this thread we'll be stocking up on bottled water, canned food, dried food. Hope there's no Corona zombies.
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Old Today, 03:53 PM   #439
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Im just gonna take it like a man, beat the damn thing and become immune.

Cant beat em, join em...them beat em!
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Old Today, 04:14 PM   #440
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So, this is bad...

Quote:
The CDC confirmed 53 cases in the US on Monday evening. A majority of these cases came from the Diamond Princess cruise liner that was recently quarantined off the coast of Japan after an outbreak on the ship. Of the 53 people, 36 of these cases are credited to the cruise ship.

There are a total of more than 80,410 cases worldwide and an estimated 2,711 deaths from the virus.

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9359196.html
The numbers:
  • 80,410 cases
  • 2,711 deaths

That is a 3.3% death rate.

For comparison, the worst pandemic in the past century was the Spanish flu of 1918.

Quote:
The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus, with the second being the swine flu in 2009.[1] It infected 500 million people around the world,[2] or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.[3][4] Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify with certainty the pandemic's geographic origin.[2]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
So if this COVID-19 virus in our globally connected world (con), with better advances in sanitation & awareness (pro) reaches 1918 Spanish flu levels of transmission, we might see around 500M infected. Judging by the 3% fatality rate so far, that many infected globally suggests that we might lose 15,000,000 people before this is done.
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Old Today, 05:00 PM   #441
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The percentage will go up for current cases, but will probably go down with additional ones - it is somewhat deadly, but the VAST majority of deaths are older folks, people being treated for something else, or people with otherwise compromised immune systems. Some of the earlier deaths are just because of poor identification/catching it late, which since awareness is now high, is much less likely.




The cruise ship has been in quarantine for about two weeks, though a large portion of the passengers did get the disease (something like 20-25%), so this outbreak has been largely contained (localized to the ship) for some time and is starting to drop off in terms of new cases.




I honestly see nothing that suggests even 1M infected total in the outbreak, let alone 500M. There are 'active'/not well contained outbreaks in Iran and Italy, but the response to new outbreaks is fairly swift, and even those are only in the low hundreds of recorded cases - which while a significant risk if left unchecked, were caught early enough to prevent pandemic scale. Remember, pandemic sort of spreading is exponential growth curves of cases, and while it did show that into early February, it's been linear and flattening out since.


Sure, not every case is documented and there is still potential for outbreak elsewhere, but there is no active powder-keg and there is no evidence the quarantine/sanitation efforts have been ineffective in stopping the spread - quite the opposite. It's big, about 1 in 100,000 people in the world have it, and it has the potential to blow up, but it is certainly not pandemic level and there are not signs of that happening now.
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Old Today, 05:11 PM   #442
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Spanish Flu is about 10% then, although the numbers are pretty unreliable. Back then our knowledge was fairly limited and so we're in a better position to contain and treat. If it broke loose in europe / america etc then you'd have huge disruptions because they'd lock places down. Schools would shut. People would rush out to buy stuff causing supply issues. Some businesses would close for a time.
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Old Today, 06:00 PM   #443
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2 Peter 3:3) For YOU know this first, that in the last days there will come ridiculers with their ridicule, proceeding according to their own desires 4) and saying: “Where is this promised presence of his? Why, from the day our forefathers fell asleep [in death], all things are continuing exactly as from creation’s beginning.” 5) For, according to their wish, this fact escapes their notice [...]

8) However, let this one fact not be escaping YOUR notice, beloved ones, that one day is with Jehovah as a thousand years and a thousand years as one day. 9) Jehovah is not slow respecting his promise, as some people consider slowness, but he is patient with YOU because he does not desire any to be destroyed but desires all to attain to repentance.
Like 12Bass says, critical thinking and the scientific method are probably the best tools we have to avoid it. (bias)

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Old Today, 06:06 PM   #444
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https://twitter.com/AP_Sports/status...16401773416448

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IOC member Dick Pound says Tokyo Olympic organizers have until late May to see if the virus is under control. If not, "you're probably looking at a cancellation."
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Old Today, 06:55 PM   #445
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Cancelling the Olympics is a big deal. My internet friend is headed for Japan in May and I'm thinking he may not be going.
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Old Today, 08:44 PM   #446
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Yeah, the Olympics would probably be the biggest cancellation I can think of aside from like continent wide lockdowns.... but it makes sense. That's a ton of people from a ton of places, all in close proximity.
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Old Today, 09:29 PM   #447
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In the U.S. without a solid healthcare system to keep patient costs down, a visit to a hospital for testing cost this man over a thousand out of pocket. News reports on stuff like this are going to discourage people from going to hospitals or even doctor visits to get checked out. People will just tell themselves "it's probably just a cold" and wait it out to save a thousand or two.

Quote:
A Miami man has received a nearly $3,500 medical bill after getting coronavirus tests following his trip to China.*

Osmel Martinez Azcue returned from a work trip last month to China and discovered he was feeling flu-like symptoms. Worried about the coronavirus, the man decided to go to a*Florida hospital to get tested, according to the*Miami Herald.*

Testing revealed Mr Azcue had the flu, not the coronavirus. But his limited health insurance left him with a bill of $3,270 two weeks after his test. He will be responsible for $1,400 of that bill.*

"How can they expect normal citizens to contribute to eliminating the potential risk of person-to-person spread if hospitals are waiting to charge us $3,270 for a simple blood test and a nasal swab?" Mr*Azcue told the newspaper.

Mr Azcue previously had insurance through the Affordable Care Act. He picked that insurance as he makes $55,000 through his job at a medical-device company, and it does not provide a health insurance plan.*

Once he first purchased the plan, he was paying $278 per month. These premiums then shot up to $400 once his full salary kicked in, forcing the man to cancel the*coverage and pay $180 per month for a limited plan through National General Insurance.*

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9358146.html
Turn a few people who can't afford this loose in NYC and see how long it takes before parts of the U.S. start shutting down.
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Old Today, 09:53 PM   #448
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Went to Costco this afternoon and got three months of food.

Achievement unlocked.

You probably wouldn’t think that buying a 50lb bag of rice and a sleeve of canned sardines makes you feel like man.

But it does.

Tons O food that we normally eat, so nothing to feel stupid about.

N95 mask check.
Food stuff check.

Anybody know anything about guns?
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Old Today, 10:08 PM   #449
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For home defense a shotgun. For hunting a rifle.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...-suggests.html

Iran may have many more coronavirus cases than reported, Canadian research suggests

Quote:
The true number of coronavirus cases in Iran may be upwards of 18,000, according to a preliminary analysis by Canadian researchers, suggesting an epidemic there nearly 200 times larger than what the country has reported — and a situation with potentially grave global consequences.

A spokesperson for Iran’s health ministry said Tuesday that the country had 95 confirmed cases of COVID-19, as the disease caused by the novel coronavirus is called, and 15 deaths.
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Old Today, 11:18 PM   #450
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Originally Posted by Shapeshifter View Post
For home defense a shotgun. For hunting a rifle.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...-suggests.html

Iran may have many more coronavirus cases than reported, Canadian research suggests
check

https://kalashnikov-usa.com/guns/ks12-shotgun/
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