Nintendo Switch sales predictions

[TenFour]

Originally Posted by Drunken Janitor

There were 21 people in line for the midnight launch at a local independent store where I pre-ordered. They had 3 consoles for walk ups. Not everyone who pre-ordered was there for the midnight launch. People I work with are interested and plan on getting one at Christmas time.

I think they should have launched with Mario Kart as well. FAST RMX is good, but no one knows about it.

Is FAST RMX worth getting if you already had the original Fast Racing Neo?

[logical]

Originally Posted by Sazar

I dunno man. My buddy has the gray and the neon just looks so much cooler.

Either way, enjoy. My prime hasn't allowed me to make a purchase for the Switch. I am likely holding off regardless to accommodate a few computer upgrades. Will see

Hope all those who got one have loads of fun

I have grey now and had the two colors side by side. Im just not a fan of bright colors. I think I would have liked a mario red and a luigi green better than the off red and blue that neon joy cons are. I am sure Nintendo is planning on releasing plenty of joy cons in different themes and colors so theres that.

[ASCI Blue]

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

This? http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nin.../1100-6448434/

I think it will sell well at launch, most consoles do as the die hard fans grab theirs. There was a mob of people at my local Best Buy on Friday morning. But seeing how it does over the course of the year is when you can really start to know if it will ultimately be a success. They've got Zelda to push it now at launch, and Mario Odyssey to push it this holiday season maybe with a price drop or bundle, and hoping for steady sales between now and then.

I think they've got a decent game plan. At the very least its going to do better than the Wii U. All this speculation about sales predictions though, I wonder what Nintendo themselves would consider a success. I really hope they are not banking on original Wii numbers because that ain't happening.

Not sure if it's that link specifically but it likely says what I think it does. You have a very good point with that. Day 1/week 1 sales are through the roof then it comes to staying power. Unless N starts releasing **** on a regular basis this will likely be the die hard fan grab you're talking about and the people like me won't waste the time or money to get one cause there's nothing interesting.

[SubCog]

Originally Posted by ASCI Blue

Not sure if it's that link specifically but it likely says what I think it does. You have a very good point with that. Day 1/week 1 sales are through the roof then it comes to staying power. Unless N starts releasing **** on a regular basis this will likely be the die hard fan grab you're talking about and the people like me won't waste the time or money to get one cause there's nothing interesting.

Yup, that's exactly the situation. Coming off the failure of the WiiU, perception of success is vital, as once the switch starts to smell like a failure, it will fail hard and fast. Nintendo must avoid the situation where people post photos of piles of unsold consoles at walmart. That means nintendo must sell faster than they restock at retail, and must continue this at least until Christmas (when they have a larger body of games and finally have their other **** together).

So it's a tight race. Nintendo knows that 2-4 million people will buy a Switch just for Zelda... that number has to get them to Mario Kart next month. Then some volume of people will buy just for Mario Kart. Then some volume of people will buy just for Splatoon. That needs to carry them to Christmas and Mario. If those games can sell Switches faster than retail stocks them this year, then the Switch has a chance. If sales fizzle any time before then, then Switch is toast.

All I can say is Nintendo better have a $50 price cut ready to go, 'cause I think they're going to need it.

[Meteor_of_War]

One thing I don't see anyone here mentioning is the fact there are tons of people who are very excited to be able to take the big list of confirmed indie and party games anywhere they go.

Some may scoff and roll their eyes in disbelief and skepticism, but this new Nintendo console's gimmick of taking your once PC and living room restricted games with you on the go really is a game changer.

[Nascar24]

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

One thing I don't see anyone here mentioning is the fact there are tons of people who are very excited to be able to take the big list of confirmed indie and party games anywhere they go.

Some may scoff and roll their eyes in disbelief and skepticism, but this new Nintendo console's gimmick of taking your once PC and living room restricted games with you on the go really is a game changer.

It could be, only the next year will tell. I cant believe how many Wii's were sold with all that shovel wear that went with it.

[jimjobob]

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

One thing I don't see anyone here mentioning is the fact there are tons of people who are very excited to be able to take the big list of confirmed indie and party games anywhere they go.

Some may scoff and roll their eyes in disbelief and skepticism, but this new Nintendo console's gimmick of taking your once PC and living room restricted games with you on the go really is a game changer.

It's called a phone.




Jk.

I honestly just want a unified library.

[Meteor_of_War]

Originally Posted by Nascar24

It could be, only the next year will tell. I cant believe how many Wii's were sold with all that shovel wear that went with it.

What sold all those Wii's was the new gimmick of motion controls. All the shovel ware came later when publishers saw a dumb ass casual gamer market to go after.

[SubCog]

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

One thing I don't see anyone here mentioning is the fact there are tons of people who are very excited to be able to take the big list of confirmed indie and party games anywhere they go.

Some may scoff and roll their eyes in disbelief and skepticism, but this new Nintendo console's gimmick of taking your once PC and living room restricted games with you on the go really is a game changer.

If Nintendo gets Virtual Console right (which they never have in the past), that'll be massive too.

[BababooeyHTJ]

Originally Posted by SubCog

If Nintendo gets Virtual Console right (which they never have in the past), that'll be massive too.

Not getting my hopes up on that one. Probably won't considering how little we know about it which seems crazy to me now that the console has launched.

[SirBaron]

All we do know is that certain virtual console titles will have one multiplayer.

[logical]

Please port some of the older Zeldas to the switch.

[SubCog]

Originally Posted by logical

Please port some of the older Zeldas to the switch.

Please port all the great nintendo back catalog to the Switch.

[Mangler]

Plz port the wii u library first, plenty of good games there that no one but hardcore nintendo fans played.

[SirBaron]

Fastest opening selling console in Spain, with a unprecedented near 100% attach rate for a single game. (zelda).

Off to a good start just hope Nintendo doesn't do a Nintendo.

[SubCog]

"fastest selling" game console really doesn't mean much at launch, as nearly all console launches are supply-constrained. Both xbone & PS4 sold out at launch as well. The big question is how many units they'll sell before units are readily available at retail... then how many units they can continue to sell from month to month after.

[SirBaron]

I bought mine 2 days ago, they had 20 in stock, and they're all gone again.

Of course means **** all, but Wii U wasn't supply constrained and didn't sell that well, so it means a lot when compared to that.

[AdelphiaX]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

I bought mine 2 days ago, they had 20 in stock, and they're all gone again.

Of course means **** all, but Wii U wasn't supply constrained and didn't sell that well, so it means a lot when compared to that.

Last article I read said it actually did in Japan and the Americas and about 2 months after, it nose dived. If I find it again, I'll link it.


Edit: https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/...aunch-numbers/

[SirBaron]

Not in Europe which I was talking about, Nintendo has a tough time especially in the UK. Nintendo always do fairly well in Japan, and this being primarily a handheld will mean it will do very well in Japan.

[SubCog]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

Not in Europe which I was talking about, Nintendo has a tough time especially in the UK. Nintendo always do fairly well in Japan, and this being primarily a handheld will mean it will do very well in Japan.

Nintendo's challenge right now is convincing the world that the Switch is an actual game console, and not just a dedicated Zelda machine. This year's release calendar has Nintendo putting all their eggs in one basket again and again. The 4 games they're releasing this year might be amazing, but it's going to be a long time before Switch looks like a real console with a robust library & feature set. They've gotta keep retail momentum 'til Christmas, and I think it's going to be a tight race to get there.

[SirBaron]

Yeah I still don't get why they released it now and not in holidays, which is why most anaylsts are impressed because it's doing well in March. I still think if they waited for a bigger library, and a feature complete OS the machine would have at least had a better PR image. Luckily for Nintendo most people are too stupid to know. (for now)

[KAC]

I went to 4 stores in the mall on the weekend. Tons of switch lying around. Possibly because they are overpriced to about 506 bucks for one of the following combos:

Switch + Zelda
Switch + Pro Controller
Switch + Protector case

[Sasquach]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

Yeah I still don't get why they released it now and not in holidays, which is why most anaylsts are impressed because it's doing well in March. I still think if they waited for a bigger library, and a feature complete OS the machine would have at least had a better PR image. Luckily for Nintendo most people are too stupid to know. (for now)

shareholders probably didn't allow that to happen.
If you already announce that BotW is the last Wii-U game, either people are going to not care and the sales just keep tanking or sustaining its barely there status or there will be an initial sales burst but to get a Wii-U for the game and then it just dwindles until switch arrives.

in any case I don't think the shareholders had any confidence that the wii-u can hold the fort until a holiday switch release. they were probably all "we are bleeding money and we need to stop it NOW!!! we have enough games to get started and BotW will print money!"

[jimjobob]

Originally Posted by AdelphiaX

Last article I read said it actually did in Japan and the Americas and about 2 months after, it nose dived. If I find it again, I'll link it.


Edit: https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/...aunch-numbers/

Part of the reason it nose dived is because all the articles said it wasn't selling even though it was selling much better than the 360 or ps3 did and using its sales compared to the Wii to justify that position.

[jimjobob]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

Yeah I still don't get why they released it now and not in holidays, which is why most anaylsts are impressed because it's doing well in March. I still think if they waited for a bigger library, and a feature complete OS the machine would have at least had a better PR image. Luckily for Nintendo most people are too stupid to know. (for now)

Had they waited till the holidays, it would have been competing with the Scorpio.

[BababooeyHTJ]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

Yeah I still don't get why they released it now and not in holidays, which is why most anaylsts are impressed because it's doing well in March. I still think if they waited for a bigger library, and a feature complete OS the machine would have at least had a better PR image. Luckily for Nintendo most people are too stupid to know. (for now)

This is the time of the year that I've always gotten my best deals on pc hardware. Well, summer really. People and their black friday.

[koralis]

Originally Posted by jimjobob

Had they waited till the holidays, it would have been competing with the Scorpio.

Not to mention that they're already selling out all they can make. With good sales in March, there's time for the software guys to commit to porting titles for Christmas.



https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/...-through-2017/

Now, major retailer GameStop says it expects those kinds of shortages and nearly instant sell-through of shipments to last throughout 2017 in its more than 7,000 retail stores.
...
CEO Paul Raines said elsewhere in the call that the retailer's initial shipment of Switch systems sold out in two days and that "multiple replenishments since the launch... have sold out in hours." Bartel added that "there is tremendous demand for this, and we just don't know how high it is because every time we get it out in our stores it's literally gone."
...
Still, the excitement for the Switch within GameStop was palpable throughout the earnings call, with Raines saying early on that "the Switch has provided a dramatic lift in traffic in-store and has real potential to be Wii-like in its ability to expand the gaming category from core to broad audiences."

[Progression]

Yeah, there are a ton of (overpriced, ~$450 USD) Switch consoles here in Mexico for the taking.

[Tyr-Sog]

My son who is 8 shows no interest in Nintendo. None of his friends or cousins in this age group seem to be interested in it either.
Is it nostalgia and 40 somethings keeping NIN afloat?

Nintendo should move on to just software after this.

[Sazar]

Originally Posted by Tyr-Sog

My son who is 8 shows no interest in Nintendo. None of his friends or cousins in this age group seem to be interested in it either.
Is it nostalgia and 40 somethings keeping NIN afloat?

Nintendo should move on to just software after this.

Oh.

All my friends and their kids are hugely interested in Nintendo and have all purchased or ordered a Switch so it seems anecdotally, Nintendo should stick to making hardware and software.

Since half of them don't have Xbox's, Microsoft should just move on to software already.