Nintendo Switch sales predictions - Page 3

TenFour · Feb 23, 2017, 08:53 PM

Just gauging from hall-talk at work, there seems to be more interest than there was about the Wii U launch. That plus Zelda I think will put it above the Wii U in the first year. In following years, it'll depend on how much third party support it gets which is hard to predict.

If it becomes a 3DS successor (maybe a small form-factor version with lower-budget games that still work on the big brother), I think it will get a lot of third party support from 3DS developers.

I think as a whole it will have 3DS level success, maybe better.

With a big price drop before Christmas 2018, I think it could have the potential to be quite a big success.

AdelphiaX · Mar 3, 2017, 01:46 AM

I checked out a local gamestop and best buy to see the crowds for the midnight release. GameStop was open and funneling people in (I'm assuming a preorder shipped to store) before midnight. They probably had 30 people total. The best buy wasn't accepting people yet but they probably had around 50.

This is more than I anticipated but I'll say this... before Cataclysm, midnight/opening releases for World of Warcraft expansion packs had larger crowds than these combined. I'll still stick to my original prediction of 5 to 15 million lifetime.

jimjobob · Mar 3, 2017, 02:23 AM

Just picked one up at Best buy. They had 165 coming in and they were telling people at the end of the line they were likely going to be out before they got in. I was about 130th in line. and got the last guaranteed console slip. It was easily the longest console line I have ever seen. I also live in an area with several gamestops and best buy's really close together.

For some perspective, I picked up a Wii U at launch and there was like 6 people in line. I bricked the first one and went back to the store several hours later and they still had a pile of them.

jimjobob · Mar 3, 2017, 02:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdelphiaX

I checked out a local gamestop and best buy to see the crowds for the midnight release. GameStop was open and funneling people in (I'm assuming a preorder shipped to store) before midnight. They probably had 30 people total. The best buy wasn't accepting people yet but they probably had around 50.

This is more than I anticipated but I'll say this... before Cataclysm, midnight/opening releases for World of Warcraft expansion packs had larger crowds than these combined. I'll still stick to my original prediction of 5 to 15 million lifetime.

If every best buy store in the US gets in at least 100 and sells out tonight, that is minimum 150k just at one retailer in the US alone in a couple hours.

**logical** · Mar 3, 2017, 02:44 AM

There was only about 70 at the BB I went to and all the slips were out by the time I got there so I decided to go home. Im not waiting without a guarantee of getting one.

**logical** · Mar 3, 2017, 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logical

There was only about 70 at the BB I went to and all the slips were out by the time I got there so I decided to go home. Im not waiting without a guarantee of getting one.

Scratch that. I was able to order one through amazon prime now and it will be here in the morning. Its a neon one... not too excited about that kind of wanted the grey. I will purchase Zelda via the e-store.

lviz · Mar 3, 2017, 07:05 AM

Seems that availability is quite good. Several local stores report having them in stock.

Mangler · Mar 3, 2017, 07:13 AM

Yeah, I was just able to walk into a local store and pick one up without a preorder.

I guess the people who really, really wanted one bought it from an e-tailer.

But I'm sure that even the local store will run out of supplies today.

Meteor_of_War · Mar 3, 2017, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdelphiaX

I checked out a local gamestop and best buy to see the crowds for the midnight release. GameStop was open and funneling people in (I'm assuming a preorder shipped to store) before midnight. They probably had 30 people total. The best buy wasn't accepting people yet but they probably had around 50.

This is more than I anticipated but I'll say this... before Cataclysm, midnight/opening releases for World of Warcraft expansion packs had larger crowds than these combined. I'll still stick to my original prediction of 5 to 15 million lifetime.

Honestly I think you are way off. The marketing and hype for the Switch has been leagues better than it was for the Wii U. That alone should guarantee it to do much better.

Mangler · Mar 3, 2017, 08:27 AM

Pokemans and monster hunter will save the switch.

lviz · Mar 3, 2017, 09:12 AM

Doh. I went grocery shopping to the nearest super market, and they had a pile of both colors. I ended up buying the grey one.

AdelphiaX · Mar 3, 2017, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lviz

Doh. I went grocery shopping to the nearest super market, and they had a pile of both colors. I ended up buying the grey one.

Every target in my area has them in stock. 2 of 3 Gamestops near me are still offering the bundles for instore pickup.

It looks more to me that there was a limit on preorders and not a restraint on the number actually produced.

Meteor_of_War · Mar 3, 2017, 11:58 AM

I just went to my local Best Buy as soon as it opened to grab my Zelda copy and there was a pretty sizable line waiting there. I'd say about 50-75 people. When I got inside they had a couple of carts on the floor with their stock of Switches and there had to be at least 50 of them just that i could see, maybe more.

I think Nintendo did a pretty decent job meeting demand for this release and that will help their sales numbers for sure.

AdelphiaX · Mar 3, 2017, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

Honestly I think you are way off. The marketing and hype for the Switch has been leagues better than it was for the Wii U. That alone should guarantee it to do much better.

I do hope you're right, I'd like to get one in the future but I'm just not compelled enough with Zelda, I guess I haven't had the right experiences with that franchise. I don't want Nintendo to become Sega.

Meteor_of_War · Mar 3, 2017, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdelphiaX

I do hope you're right, I'd like to get one in the future but I'm just not compelled enough with Zelda, I guess I haven't had the right experiences with that franchise. I don't want Nintendo to become Sega.

Nintendo's big franchises are so much better and more popular than anything Sega ever had so for that reason as long as they keep making them they'll be fine.

KAC · Mar 5, 2017, 04:54 AM

So what the sales like?

Elysian · Mar 5, 2017, 08:39 AM

The Target I'm at right now has 20+ in line hoping to get one at opening. They handed out tickets for the people who were here early with me. I got here around 7, they open at 8.

Edit: up to around 30 now, I think half the people here are going to leave disappointed.

Edit2: and they just handed out the last tickets, they only got 20 units.

**logical** · Mar 5, 2017, 11:43 AM

A couple days after release? Is this a restock line?

**|MaguS|** · Mar 5, 2017, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logical

A couple days after release? Is this a restock line?

We had more units come in the next day. Can't tell if it's Nintendo or the company drip feeding inventory. I know we were required to hold a minimum number for Sunday since it was on our Ad.

BTW I bet this console doesn't break 20 million. I had customers the day before launch ask why 4 people were waiting in line outside, one even asked if a new phone was launching... We had 10 people in line till Midnight where more people then showed up.

Meteor_of_War · Mar 5, 2017, 12:25 PM

There was a huge crowd at my local Best buy on Friday morning. Don't think you can gauge how it will do from how many people showed up at one store.

lviz · Mar 5, 2017, 02:50 PM

The near non-existence of a launch lineup is a pretty poor decision, and affects sales. If Zelda's not your thing, there's just about nothing else for it you could't be playing with some other system. Releasing Zelda at the same time for Wii U further limits system sales.

Though I'm happy I didn't buy I am Setsuna for PS4. I think that the portability of Switch is a game changer for me. Times spent in transit in airports and hotel evenings just got much more entertaining.

BababooeyHTJ · Mar 5, 2017, 04:52 PM

Never change Nintendo

http://kotaku.com/nintendo-switch-th...iew-1792776350

ASCI Blue · Mar 5, 2017, 06:19 PM

I have a friend who got an error on his which N couldn't solve via phone. They're being nice enough to ship him overnight boxes to ship it to them in. I'll wait for version 2.0 and hopefully a Metroid game before seriously considering grabbing one.

dmanna · Mar 6, 2017, 03:26 AM

If the Zelda game is that good I might pick up a used wii U.. the problem is I am going to demand a pro controller.. and i will literally return the console as soon as I finish Zelda.

I am definitely picking up a PS4 at some point, I don't want 3 consoles + tablets and PC's in my house.

1 smart phone, 1 tablet/laptop (surface) 1 maybe 2 consoles and a PC. Thats all I want in the house.

Nascar24 · Mar 6, 2017, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmanna

If the Zelda game is that good I might pick up a used wii U.. the problem is I am going to demand a pro controller.. and i will literally return the console as soon as I finish Zelda.

I am definitely picking up a PS4 at some point, I don't want 3 consoles + tablets and PC's in my house.

1 smart phone, 1 tablet/laptop (surface) 1 maybe 2 consoles and a PC. Thats all I want in the house.

I dont know if you will be returning a WiiU, I hear its hard to come by these days and you might have to go to the used market for it if you want it. And yes Zelda is that good, even with some of the frame rate issues.. I have the Xbox one, PS4 and the WiiU at this point. Switch is to expensive for no library right now.

Drunken Janitor · Mar 6, 2017, 09:06 AM

There were 21 people in line for the midnight launch at a local independent store where I pre-ordered. They had 3 consoles for walk ups. Not everyone who pre-ordered was there for the midnight launch. People I work with are interested and plan on getting one at Christmas time.

I think they should have launched with Mario Kart as well. FAST RMX is good, but no one knows about it.

Elysian · Mar 6, 2017, 09:12 AM

I considered buying a used Wii U, but rationalized that I would be spending nearly the same amount on a 5 year old EOL console. I mainly wanted Breath of the Wild, but also didn't want a console that would be obsolete so soon. The Switch is the Wii U for people who never wanted the Wii U. Hell, I've never even used one, it was that uninteresting to me. The Switch seems to get everything right, well all the basics. I'm sure there are some big improvements coming soon, like a browser, media playback, etc.

ASCI Blue · Mar 6, 2017, 10:21 AM

Wish I copied the link, Gamestop is saying it's selling exceedingly well.

Meteor_of_War · Mar 6, 2017, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASCI Blue

Wish I copied the link, Gamestop is saying it's selling exceedingly well.

This? http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nin.../1100-6448434/

I think it will sell well at launch, most consoles do as the die hard fans grab theirs. There was a mob of people at my local Best Buy on Friday morning. But seeing how it does over the course of the year is when you can really start to know if it will ultimately be a success. They've got Zelda to push it now at launch, and Mario Odyssey to push it this holiday season maybe with a price drop or bundle, and hoping for steady sales between now and then.

I think they've got a decent game plan. At the very least its going to do better than the Wii U. All this speculation about sales predictions though, I wonder what Nintendo themselves would consider a success. I really hope they are not banking on original Wii numbers because that ain't happening.

Sazar · Mar 6, 2017, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logical

Scratch that. I was able to order one through amazon prime now and it will be here in the morning. Its a neon one... not too excited about that kind of wanted the grey. I will purchase Zelda via the e-store.

I dunno man. My buddy has the gray and the neon just looks so much cooler.

Either way, enjoy. My prime hasn't allowed me to make a purchase for the Switch. I am likely holding off regardless to accommodate a few computer upgrades. Will see

Hope all those who got one have loads of fun

View Poll Results: Predict how will the Switch do?
Massive Wii-like success. 75+ million consoles sold.	4	6.06%
Generally strong sales. 50-75 million consoles sold.	11	16.67%
Mild success. 25-50 million consoles sold.	20	30.30%
Borderline failure. 15-25 million consoles sold.	16	24.24%
Dreamcast-style failure. 5-15 million consoles sold.	6	9.09%
Virtual Boy-style absolute doom. <5 million consoles sold.	2	3.03%
Too hard to predict... my head esplode!	2	3.03%
Predictions are for weeners.	5	7.58%
Voters: 66. You may not vote on this poll

Feb 23, 2017, 08:53 PM	#61	Advertisement (Guests Only) Login or Register to remove this ad
TenFour Radeon Northern Islands Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 2,232	Just gauging from hall-talk at work, there seems to be more interest than there was about the Wii U launch. That plus Zelda I think will put it above the Wii U in the first year. In following years, it'll depend on how much third party support it gets which is hard to predict. If it becomes a 3DS successor (maybe a small form-factor version with lower-budget games that still work on the big brother), I think it will get a lot of third party support from 3DS developers. I think as a whole it will have 3DS level success, maybe better. With a big price drop before Christmas 2018, I think it could have the potential to be quite a big success.

Mar 3, 2017, 01:46 AM	#62
AdelphiaX Radeon Caribbean Islands Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 4,690	I checked out a local gamestop and best buy to see the crowds for the midnight release. GameStop was open and funneling people in (I'm assuming a preorder shipped to store) before midnight. They probably had 30 people total. The best buy wasn't accepting people yet but they probably had around 50. This is more than I anticipated but I'll say this... before Cataclysm, midnight/opening releases for World of Warcraft expansion packs had larger crowds than these combined. I'll still stick to my original prediction of 5 to 15 million lifetime. __________________ I was banned from P&R because I refer to it as an echo chamber. Echo Chamber - "an environment in which a person encounters only beliefs or opinions that coincide with their own, so that their existing views are reinforced and alternative ideas are not considered." This is considered trolling and a personal attack according to Curio. FYI in case you decide to step in there. I wonder if the definition of irony is known...

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Mar 3, 2017, 02:23 AM	#63
jimjobob Radeon Volcanic Islands Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,919	Just picked one up at Best buy. They had 165 coming in and they were telling people at the end of the line they were likely going to be out before they got in. I was about 130th in line. and got the last guaranteed console slip. It was easily the longest console line I have ever seen. I also live in an area with several gamestops and best buy's really close together. For some perspective, I picked up a Wii U at launch and there was like 6 people in line. I bricked the first one and went back to the store several hours later and they still had a pile of them.

Mar 3, 2017, 02:44 AM	#65
logical What is my purpose? Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: * Posts: 21,945	There was only about 70 at the BB I went to and all the slips were out by the time I got there so I decided to go home. Im not waiting without a guarantee of getting one. __________________

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Mar 3, 2017, 07:05 AM	#67
lviz On my way Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Eurolandia Posts: 1,747	Seems that availability is quite good. Several local stores report having them in stock. __________________ So long, and thanks for all the fish.

Mar 3, 2017, 07:13 AM	#68
Mangler PC Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 20,499	Yeah, I was just able to walk into a local store and pick one up without a preorder. I guess the people who really, really wanted one bought it from an e-tailer. But I'm sure that even the local store will run out of supplies today.

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Mar 3, 2017, 08:27 AM	#70
Mangler PC Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 20,499	Pokemans and monster hunter will save the switch.

Mar 3, 2017, 09:12 AM	#71
lviz On my way Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Eurolandia Posts: 1,747	Doh. I went grocery shopping to the nearest super market, and they had a pile of both colors. I ended up buying the grey one. __________________ So long, and thanks for all the fish.

Mar 3, 2017, 11:58 AM	#73
Meteor_of_War USA-holes Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 25,077	I just went to my local Best Buy as soon as it opened to grab my Zelda copy and there was a pretty sizable line waiting there. I'd say about 50-75 people. When I got inside they had a couple of carts on the floor with their stock of Switches and there had to be at least 50 of them just that i could see, maybe more. I think Nintendo did a pretty decent job meeting demand for this release and that will help their sales numbers for sure. __________________ =::GameValueNow Collection Tracker::= =::Steam::=

Mar 5, 2017, 04:54 AM	#76
KAC RGB mofo, do you have it! Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Lahore Posts: 62,211	So what the sales like?

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Mar 5, 2017, 11:43 AM	#78
logical What is my purpose? Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: * Posts: 21,945	A couple days after release? Is this a restock line? __________________

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Mar 5, 2017, 12:25 PM	#80
Meteor_of_War USA-holes Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 25,077	There was a huge crowd at my local Best buy on Friday morning. Don't think you can gauge how it will do from how many people showed up at one store. __________________ =::GameValueNow Collection Tracker::= =::Steam::=

Mar 5, 2017, 02:50 PM	#81
lviz On my way Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Eurolandia Posts: 1,747	The near non-existence of a launch lineup is a pretty poor decision, and affects sales. If Zelda's not your thing, there's just about nothing else for it you could't be playing with some other system. Releasing Zelda at the same time for Wii U further limits system sales. Though I'm happy I didn't buy I am Setsuna for PS4. I think that the portability of Switch is a game changer for me. Times spent in transit in airports and hotel evenings just got much more entertaining. __________________ So long, and thanks for all the fish.

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Mar 6, 2017, 03:26 AM	#84
dmanna Radeon Northern Islands Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Massachusettes Posts: 2,262	If the Zelda game is that good I might pick up a used wii U.. the problem is I am going to demand a pro controller.. and i will literally return the console as soon as I finish Zelda. I am definitely picking up a PS4 at some point, I don't want 3 consoles + tablets and PC's in my house. 1 smart phone, 1 tablet/laptop (surface) 1 maybe 2 consoles and a PC. Thats all I want in the house.

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Mar 6, 2017, 09:06 AM	#86
Drunken Janitor Blistering Barnacles! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Winnipeg Posts: 6,280	There were 21 people in line for the midnight launch at a local independent store where I pre-ordered. They had 3 consoles for walk ups. Not everyone who pre-ordered was there for the midnight launch. People I work with are interested and plan on getting one at Christmas time. I think they should have launched with Mario Kart as well. FAST RMX is good, but no one knows about it. __________________ i5 4670 Haswell <> Gigabyte radeon 280x <> 8 gigs of some ram that happened to be on sale that week <> Asus Z87-K <> Some DVD burner that has been used for 3-4 computers - might be a pioneer <> Winblows 10 Now! Last edited by Drunken Janitor : Mar 6, 2017 at 09:21 AM.

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