Nintendo Switch sales predictions

[TenFour]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

They said the same thing about ds not replacing Gameboy that they will live side by side.

They're saying it's not replacing 3ds just Incase switch does bad, but I guarantee 100% if switch does good 3ds is going to suddenly get support cut off.

Then couple of years down the line you will get a switch mini,plays same games but is more kid friendly.

I don't think they'd cut support without some overlap with a direct successor (be that a Switch mini or something else). The Switch is too big to be practical (for most) to take on school buses and the other various places people use 3DS. And too expensive for parents to buy multiples of for their kids. So dropping 3DS support would be cutting a huge revenue source if the replacement weren't already available.

[ViN86]

My guess is better than the WiiU, worse than the Wii. I'm not buying one, but I think it will do well.

[GravY]

Originally Posted by ViN86

My guess is better than the WiiU, worse than the Wii. I'm not buying one, but I think it will do well.

So between 13.5 million and 101 million..

[ViN86]

Originally Posted by GravY

So between 13.5 million and 101 million..

I voted 50-75 million.

[KAC]

5 millions maybe. Virtual boy like.

[Meteor_of_War]

They did a Super Bowl commercial. It will sell well.

[|MaguS|]

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

They did a Super Bowl commercial. It will sell well.

That means nothing... The last Terminator movie had a commercial as well and it was one of the biggest flops.

[Meteor_of_War]

Originally Posted by |MaguS|

That means nothing... The last Terminator movie had a commercial as well and it was one of the biggest flops.

Yeah that was me trying to be sarcastic.

I am a non-believer in the ridiculous cost of Superbowl commercial spots actually paying off in promoting products.

[hazindu]

In the switches favor:

1. They will have a honeymoon. Between the Nintendo name and a Zelda launch title, they should sell out at launch.
2. They are already better advertised than the Wii U ever was. I remember being at WalMart and hearing some kids argue over whether or not you had to have a Wii to use a Wii U...

How it does after the honeymoon will mostly depend on perception. If both gamers and developers alike see it as the most capable handheld, it should do very well. If either sees it as the least capable home console, Nintendo is screwed.

Well, that's how I see it.

[dmanna]

Originally Posted by Meteor_of_War

Yeah that was me trying to be sarcastic.

I am a non-believer in the ridiculous cost of Superbowl commercial spots actually paying off in promoting products.

Fox made 500 million off of the Super Bowl commercials. 1/2 a billion dollars in 4 hours.. not to shabby.

[SubCog]

Originally Posted by hazindu

In the switches favor:

1. They will have a honeymoon. Between the Nintendo name and a Zelda launch title, they should sell out at launch.
2. They are already better advertised than the Wii U ever was. I remember being at WalMart and hearing some kids argue over whether or not you had to have a Wii to use a Wii U...

How it does after the honeymoon will mostly depend on perception. If both gamers and developers alike see it as the most capable handheld, it should do very well. If either sees it as the least capable home console, Nintendo is screwed.

Well, that's how I see it.

I agree with all of this, and let me add that I think the Switch is just a better overall concept than WiiU, which helps alot.

Going against Nintendo though:

1. Consumers are already skeptical whether the Switch can be successful, after Nintendo's rocky past, and the embarrassing total abysmal failure of the WiiU.
2. 3rd parties seem especially tepid about supporting Switch. The WiiU at least got a bunch of year old ports of major 3rd party releases.
3. Actually the entire Switch library seems to be especially thin. I keep hearing people argue that there will be a snowball effect, with more and more 3rd parties supporting Switch after it proves to be successful... I think this is a major misunderstanding of how building a console platform works, and more likely spells doom than success for Switch.
4. Nintendo seems to be falling behind on critical services and infrastructure. We're less than a month from release and still nobody has even seen the OS. The online multiplayer is apparently months out from even a beta. Nintendo has said absolutely nothing about accounts, virtual console, etc. Let's face it, Nintendo is releasing Switch way before it's actually ready.
5. Nintendo seems woefully incompetent when trying to articulate what the Switch is about (after watching their abysmal unveiling that sent their stock plummeting). Nintendo is a mess right now, and is unlikely to be able to nurture a console platform to success.

[SirBaron]

They managed to recover the 3ds,whixh was a mess at release. The game titles are slowly increasing this year, granted helped by indies.

There's a public stress test. For splatoon 2 in March for all regions so multiplayer is functional, though I do think Nintendo are very quiet about many things.

It will be a good start, with a rough layer year and next mid year I expect the sales to pick up again.

[BababooeyHTJ]

How the hell is there only one strong launch title clearly originally designed for the wii u and delayed for the switch launch? Other than that you've got mario kart, which is already on the wii u. And at least 6 months later a super mario title.

Nintendo pretty much dropped support for the wii u well over a year ago. Figured that they would have more in the works.

I'll be waiting for a price drop.

[aviphysics]

Originally Posted by ShaidarHaran

The Switch will easily sell at least twice as many systems as the Wii U because hardly anyone even knew the Wii U existed or what it was.

Don't have a clue how many it will sell, but I 100% agree that a large portion of thew WiiU failure was a totally inability to distinguish itself from its more famous older sibling.

I am seriously thinking about getting a Switch for my kids, but not until it has been out for a while. Certainly no earlier than the winter holidays.

At least a few things that make it look much more attractive than the Wii/Wii-U.

1. Properly portable (even if it drains USB power banks like a calf on its mother's tit)
2. Capacitive Multi-Touch screen
3. Motion control pads with dual analog sticks and no tether
4. Local multiplayer support in portable mode

Finally, at least Nintendo makes game I want to play that I can't get/play on my PC.

[ragewars_sc]

Originally Posted by TenFour

I don't think it makes business sense for them to ever attempt to compete on computing power with their hardware. It's not as profitable. They don't have other divisions in their company that give them the flexibility to have a break-even video game division like Sony and MS. Once these two giants entered the business, Sega and Nintendo had no choice but to bow out of the power race, learning the hard way with GameCube.

It may not be what we want as gamers, but for business reasons I don't think it will ever happen.

I think if the Switch is a total flop, they might give it one more go (they can afford to), or give up. But I fear that as a third party developer, they might go the way of Sega, where only one out of ten games is decent. I don't really know why that happened.

Perhaps Nintendo could thrive as a second party developer, continuing to do console exclusives.

That is the thing.. we need Nintendo to be up there.. I don't want them to be the ps4 or the scorpion but i want them to be at least xboxone or ps4 pro. I want them to be the weakest but to be close.. technology is far ahead and Nintendo is holding us back this is just sad. Think about how much better Zelda can look.. Why is Nintendo ONE generation behind.. and at the same price!! This makes me mad.. why are we paying so much for a console that is weaker, no hdd no bluray drive and NO controller... I don't care about portability or those joycons and i hope it will fail again and again and they can go to hell if they don't want to make things we WANT! Do you remember when the rumors started about the console using cartridges.. they said it will be cheaper.. smaller... its smaller but no cheaper... I never imagined i will play zelda on my wiiu... but i will! If Nintendo was smart,they would make a similar powered console to ps4 pro around the same price they sell it as a dedicated 1080 60fps console with better fidelity graphics... that would make people buy it.. this can make consoles stand out.. because pc can't afford to make games work only on gtx 1070 or vega. But instead they try to make 4k games on ps4 and scorpio.. i really think this is a mistake!

[borat]

^^^^^^^^^^
Why would people buy a Nintendo console that costs as much as a PS4 Pro but has a lower resolution?

[TenFour]

I'm buying it because I like that it's portable and my favorite series are all first-party Nintendo games (Metroid, Zelda, and now Splatoon). For me, fun outweighs graphics. And I love the thought of being able to play anywhere in the house and not fight for the TV. Sure, I'd prefer Nintendo to stop making consoles so I could just get a single console and their games could look better, but this is the reality now. :P

[jimjobob]

Originally Posted by borat

^^^^^^^^^^
Why would people buy a Nintendo console that costs as much as a PS4 Pro but has a lower resolution?

You need to stop using that common core math. Ps4 pro is an additional 33% over the cost of the switch.

[logical]

Originally Posted by jimjobob

You need to stop using that common core math. Ps4 pro is an additional 33% over the cost of the switch.

[Sweetz]

I think it will do better than the Wii U - but not by much.

While there was initial confusion with the Wii U branding, I ultimately don't think it really played all that much of factor in its failure.

The bulk of casual consumers that bought the Wii had already long since packed it into their closet the Wii came out. They weren't looking for another video game system, period; they already had their fill of a gimmick they bought on a whim during its zeitgeist.

I don't see the Switch capturing that casual audience again either. It's still got analog sticks and buttons, motion controls are old hat, and people already play games on tablets.

The only thing it's got is that maybe it gets traction with the portable audience, and the same market that bought 3DSes now buy the Switch, but then they're really just transition their existing market to a different system and not really growing. That said, maybe they do end up making more profit selling a Switch to everyone than manufacturing two different systems.

If the Switch does find good initial traction with the portable audience - mark my words, we will see a cheaper, non-TV-dockable, fixed controls version of the Switch with a smaller screen and longer battery life that can play any of the Switch games that don't involve two people using the joy-cons separately. It will be branded the Nintendo Switch Gameboy.

[Drunken Janitor]

Was working right by a local shop and they put up on Facebook that they had 13 pre-orders available. Stopped on the way to the next job and got the neon Switch and Zelda. Wife and I had decided we wanted to start gaming again and it will be the best choice for young kids when we are ready to introduce them to it.

[borat]

Originally Posted by jimjobob

You need to stop using that common core math. Ps4 pro is an additional 33% over the cost of the switch.

I was referring to what he said Nintendo should do.

[SirBaron]

i have no doubt there will be a cheaper dockless Switch, that's pretty much guranteed.

[logical]

Originally Posted by SirBaron

i have no doubt there will be a cheaper dockless Switch, that's pretty much guranteed.

Looking at the unboxing the dock is basically just a holder for connecting a power cable and a hdmi cable. I doubt those 2 things cost much of anything when they buy in volume. I dont think it would make sense to sell a switch without it.

[SirBaron]

Probably not but gives the a excuse to sell the Overpriced docks.

There will certainly.be a switch mini with non detachable controllers or something restrictive. Kinda like the 2ds was obviously non 3d and also non clamshell.

[logical]

I don't think they can do noon detachable controllers cause then games like 1 2 switch can't be played.

[Sasquach]

Originally Posted by borat

^^^^^^^^^^
Why would people buy a Nintendo console that costs as much as a PS4 Pro but has a lower resolution?

I highly doubt the majority of console gamers really even know or care what the resolution of their console is.........

[borat]

Originally Posted by Sasquach

I highly doubt the majority of console gamers really even know or care what the resolution of their console is.........

Weird, I got the impression they know and care what resolutions the consoles are capable of, but nothing beyond that. If they don't, I feel like a lot of them will buy a PS4 Pro even if their TV is only 1080p...

[Sweetz]

Originally Posted by logical

I don't think they can do noon detachable controllers cause then games like 1 2 switch can't be played.

Apparently Switch games have iconography on the back the displays the "modes" they can be used in. I.e. there's some sort of indication of 2-player local multiplayer.

Because they have defined iconography, they could say a fixed controls version only supports X "modes" that could easily compared with the back of a game's box.

Weren't there at least a few 3DS games that depended on the 3D effect for some mini-game like things (i.e. pick which one of these is farther away). Those wouldn't work on a 2DS, so I don't think Nintendo is too afraid to break compatibility with limited use features/games.

[AdelphiaX]

5 to 15 million for it's lifetime.... I don't think it hits 5 million until the sales peak for the Mario release.