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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:19 AM   #1861
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NWR_Midnight
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Originally Posted by nutcrackr View Post
Right now the average morality rate (not total mortality rate) is 2.72% for all countries with 1000+ cases. There are many countries that have less than 2%. If you take out Italy, the average fatality rate falls to 2.51%.
Where are you getting that number for average mortality rate for all countries? there are 31,881 deaths, and 679,977 cases right now that is the most accurate average you can get... that is a current world (all countries) death rate of 4.7%. (31,881/679,977 = .046885) No matter how you try to do the numbers, there is no way you can get an average of 2.6% for the countries, because math is math, all numbers will equal the same if done right (unless you are using common core math ) .. Even the US is at 1.7% and rising every day. (was 1.28% about 5 days ago). We won't have an accurate death rate till this thing is over.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:49 AM   #1862
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Has anyone seen anything regarding what having an existing "common cold" and then catching COVID-19 would do?

Now, influenza is a different type of virus and I have read reports you can get a double-whammy of influenza and COVID-19.

But assuming that the common cold, being a coronavirus itself, and COVID-19 being a coronavirus; I'd assume that both would be competing for the same cellular machinery inside cells your to make copies of themselves which may mitigate both (i.e., it may temper their spread and give your immune system more time to mount a successful response). However, if COVID-19 is that much more virulent - and it is quite virulent from everything we've see - it may not make a difference. It may just be better at making copies of itself and spreading than other coronaviruses (at least in respect to how most folks bodies and immune systems function).

Nonetheless, I'd be interested to know if anyone has read anything regarding what implications this scenario would have.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 09:15 AM   #1863
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Originally Posted by Pr3tty F1y View Post
Has anyone seen anything regarding what having an existing "common cold" and then catching COVID-19 would do?

Now, influenza is a different type of virus and I have read reports you can get a double-whammy of influenza and COVID-19.

But assuming that the common cold, being a coronavirus itself, and COVID-19 being a coronavirus; I'd assume that both would be competing for the same cellular machinery inside cells your to make copies of themselves which may mitigate both (i.e., it may temper their spread and give your immune system more time to mount a successful response). However, if COVID-19 is that much more virulent - and it is quite virulent from everything we've see - it may not make a difference. It may just be better at making copies of itself and spreading than other coronaviruses (at least in respect to how most folks bodies and immune systems function).

Nonetheless, I'd be interested to know if anyone has read anything regarding what implications this scenario would have.
I don't think that is a known answer because from my understanding, they are testing for flu first, and if it comes up posative, sending you on your way, never doing a test for COVID. Which in it's self is contributing to the spread of COVID because people only think they have the flu. Please, correct me if I am wrong.

edit: You can get both per this article, news segment video from Fox News (yea I know): https://www.foxnews.com/media/corona...ovid-same-time
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 09:18 AM   #1864
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Originally Posted by Pr3tty F1y View Post
Has anyone seen anything regarding what having an existing "common cold" and then catching COVID-19 would do?

Now, influenza is a different type of virus and I have read reports you can get a double-whammy of influenza and COVID-19.

But assuming that the common cold, being a coronavirus itself, and COVID-19 being a coronavirus; I'd assume that both would be competing for the same cellular machinery inside cells your to make copies of themselves which may mitigate both (i.e., it may temper their spread and give your immune system more time to mount a successful response). However, if COVID-19 is that much more virulent - and it is quite virulent from everything we've see - it may not make a difference. It may just be better at making copies of itself and spreading than other coronaviruses (at least in respect to how most folks bodies and immune systems function).

Nonetheless, I'd be interested to know if anyone has read anything regarding what implications this scenario would have.
Yeah, it's extremely rare (but I won't say impossible) to get a cold and the flu at the same time. If you did...well, Pugnatum erat fun cum eam

Last edited by Munkus : Mar 29, 2020 at 09:34 AM.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 11:41 AM   #1865
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Originally Posted by OzzieBloke View Post
This is probably just as well.

There are now two confirmed cases of dogs (asymptomatic) and 1 case of a cat (symptomatic with respiratory signs, lethargy, diarrhoea) testing positive COVID-19. This is just 3 animals out of 6,000 tested, the rest have tested negative, so it seems either these three have underlying problems making them susceptible, or a particular strain of COVID-19 (of which there are several) are able to jump to domestic animals.

But you seriously don't want random strangers petting yours dogs at the dog park, and spreading the virus on their fur and mouths; it can last up to 3 days on your pet as far as topical contamination is known to date. All pets as of a month ago should be quarantined and kept to their own properties, not allowed to roam, and exercised only at home. Wash your hands BEFORE and AFTER playing with your pets. DO NOT let them lick your face.

I quarantined my own two dogs for the last 3 weeks here in Australia, along with isolating myself. I have a mild cough as of 3 days ago but no other signs of infection after having to deal with a veterinary emergency in a quarantined home; they are thankfully showing no signs, but with 1/3 people showing no signs while being infected, that doesn't mean much unfortunately.

Stay safe everyone.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 12:40 PM   #1866
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Yeah, it's extremely rare (but I won't say impossible) to get a cold and the flu at the same time. If you did...well, Pugnatum erat fun cum eam
Fun cum...

Sorry, the inner 5 year old is strong today, lol.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 01:02 PM   #1867
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Fun cum...

Sorry, the inner 5 year old is strong today, lol.
yeah, the Google translate page didn't have a latin word for "fun" so it just used the same word.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 02:15 PM   #1868
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You guys still have issues with TP?

Stepped in on Friday and was fully stocked with pallets of it in the middle isles...
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 02:53 PM   #1869
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Finally saw TP at the store today. No paper towels still. The store now has signs asking folk to stay 6 feet apart and markings on the floor on where you should stand at the checkout lines. I see more face masks these days and all the store workers are wearing the blue gloves. Still not able to get 100% of what I'm looking for but usually by the next or second or so trip the thing will show up.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 03:24 PM   #1870
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Originally Posted by dodger View Post
Finally saw TP at the store today. No paper towels still. The store now has signs asking folk to stay 6 feet apart and markings on the floor on where you should stand at the checkout lines. I see more face masks these days and all the store workers are wearing the blue gloves. Still not able to get 100% of what I'm looking for but usually by the next or second or so trip the thing will show up.
yet when checking out we are 2'-3' away from the cashier who has no PPE.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 03:26 PM   #1871
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Still no TP at the local Albertson's grocery store but I've heard other stores might have it. I don't need it right now, but it still pisses me off.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 03:53 PM   #1872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWR_Midnight View Post
Where are you getting that number for average mortality rate for all countries? there are 31,881 deaths, and 679,977 cases right now that is the most accurate average you can get... that is a current world (all countries) death rate of 4.7%. (31,881/679,977 = .046885) No matter how you try to do the numbers, there is no way you can get an average of 2.6% for the countries, because math is math, all numbers will equal the same if done right (unless you are using common core math ) .. Even the US is at 1.7% and rising every day. (was 1.28% about 5 days ago). We won't have an accurate death rate till this thing is over.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Take all countries with over 1000 cases, calculate death rate for each, now average that death rate. I don't believe any country with only a few hundred cases can supply greatly accurate data but the average is similar if you use them all. Using the total deaths vs total cases is flawed in that it assumes no countries are inundated (clearly wrong) and that they are all testing equally (way wrong). The average is 2.73% for 1000+ countries and the median is 1.76%, which says that some of the higher countries are perhaps outliers. The median is pretty similar to South Korea (1.6%) which has tested the most.

I do expect the CFR will get worse in the weeks ahead though.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 04:08 PM   #1873
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Quote:
Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive


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Old Mar 29, 2020, 04:38 PM   #1874
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I guess we should get use to the literal meaning of ****, shower, and shave.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 05:23 PM   #1875
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Originally Posted by Cyko View Post
Fun cum...

Sorry, the inner 5 year old is strong today, lol.
At least yours comes and goes. Mine is forever strong and always screaming filthy things.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 05:31 PM   #1876
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWR_Midnight View Post
Where are you getting that number for average mortality rate for all countries? there are 31,881 deaths, and 679,977 cases right now that is the most accurate average you can get... that is a current world (all countries) death rate of 4.7%. (31,881/679,977 = .046885) No matter how you try to do the numbers, there is no way you can get an average of 2.6% for the countries, because math is math, all numbers will equal the same if done right (unless you are using common core math ) .. Even the US is at 1.7% and rising every day. (was 1.28% about 5 days ago). We won't have an accurate death rate till this thing is over.
They do not test everybody, they test symtpmatic people who came back from travel.
That is NOWHERE NEAR all people.

South Korea when mad with testing from the beginning. Taiwan went over 9000.

The vast majority of cases you see are symptomatic, they ask everyone else to stay home.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 05:35 PM   #1877
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Unfortunately, Covid19 has not shed all it's secrets...
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 05:45 PM   #1878
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterGoa View Post
Unfortunately, Covid19 has not shed all it's secrets...
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive
30-50% accuracy for testing is not fantastic - aka take this news with a grain of salt. More than likely false positives.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 06:31 PM   #1879
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Excellent overview:

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Old Mar 29, 2020, 07:02 PM   #1880
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New York state today:
59, 513 tested positive + 3572 discharged = 63085 total cases.
8,503 in hospital, of those
2,037 ICU
965 dead.

965 / 59513 = 1.62% death rate.

Korea:
9,583 cases + 5,033 recovered = 14616
152 dead.

152/9583 = 1.58% death rate.


Edited to account for total vs active cases.

Last edited by MasterGoa : Mar 29, 2020 at 07:48 PM.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 07:15 PM   #1881
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Originally Posted by MasterGoa View Post
New York state today:
59, 513 tested positive + 3572 discharged = 63085 total cases.
8,503 in hospital, of those
2,037 ICU
965 dead.

965 / 63085 = 1.52% death rate.

Korea:
9,583 cases + 5,033 recovered = 14616
152 dead.

152/14616 = 1.0% death rate.


Remember to count the recovered, they ARE part of the stat.
I'm not sure that's how it's tallied. Total cases are counted, and none are subtracted when someone recovers. For Korea:

9,583 cases - 5,033 recovered = 4,550 still fighting.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 07:40 PM   #1882
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Yeah, all the totals I've seen have "Cases" as the total number of recorded confirmed positive tests, then every other number (recovered, deaths, intensive care, etc.) is a subset of that total case count.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 07:43 PM   #1883
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You have to be careful, sometimes, they say cases, some time they say active cases.

Lemme double check.

Ok so average for NY and SK is 1.6% death rate.

Last edited by MasterGoa : Mar 29, 2020 at 07:49 PM.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:15 PM   #1884
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My wife just gave me a haircut, and she did pretty good. Good old #2 guard on the sides, and a #4 up top with a blend using a comb. Not exactly how I envisioned 2020 going, but we will adapt.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:28 PM   #1885
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My wife just gave me a haircut, and she did pretty good. Good old #2 guard on the sides, and a #4 up top with a blend using a comb. Not exactly how I envisioned 2020 going, but we will adapt.
yea

i need one also but not going in to great clips now

so i think i may go without for the duration

back to the 70's big hair rock band look

that i have not had since the second day of boot camp in 79
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:30 PM   #1886
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yea

i need one also but not going in to great clips now

so i think i may go without for the duration

back to the 70's big hair rock band look

i have not had since the second day of boot camp
I can't do long hair, especially when it's starting to get hot. I would shave my own damn head before I could let it grow out.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:31 PM   #1887
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No TP,hand Sanitizer, paper towels, canned soup very little meat. Fortunately we stocked our freezer at the start of this madness. Just wanted to restock what we'd used. Many people here are certainly ignoring the social distancing guidelines. You'd think since spring is here it's party time especially for late teen early twenty club. Idiots.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:33 PM   #1888
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I can't do long hair, especially when it's starting to get hot. I would shave my own damn head before I could let it grow out.

i may get there

i got the dog clippers
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 08:43 PM   #1889
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I can't do long hair, especially when it's starting to get hot. I would shave my own damn head before I could let it grow out.
I feel the same way. Shaving my head might be my best option at some point. It would be better than getting an uneven haircut from a non-professional. However, I did take a chance a couple of days ago and got a haircut (small stylist-owned salon; she and I were the only ones there, and she is the only stylist), so I am good for April.
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Old Mar 29, 2020, 09:06 PM   #1890
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My wife just gave me a haircut, and she did pretty good. Good old #2 guard on the sides, and a #4 up top with a blend using a comb. Not exactly how I envisioned 2020 going, but we will adapt.
I’ve been cutting my own hair for 20 years now.
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