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Old Mar 4, 2021, 05:33 PM   #1
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SubCog
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Default So when will GPUs be available and reasonably priced?

I'd like to be in the market to upgrade my GPU (mostly for better VR), but it looks like now is a terrible time to buy.

I'm currently rocking an Radeon RX580, which 3 years ago cost me $330. I don't think I'm properly understanding things, because it looks like the same card now costs twice as much, on the used market.

I'm hoping to spend about the same now to get a substantial upgrade. Is this chip shortage going to last for another 6 months?
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 05:49 PM   #2
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I'm thinking maybe the end of 2022
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 06:56 PM   #3
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Could easily be another six months.

What you need is for bitcoin and especially etherium to crash in value. Then you need the chip makers to finally get enough out the door to start catching up to the gaming demand that is still there and hasn't been satisfied for a while now. They couldn't even meet demand before the mining thing started up again.

BTW your RX580 if an 8GB model is worth a lot more than 330 right now.
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 07:30 PM   #4
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If mining crashes, the used video card market will be full of used cards.

If mining does not crash, and I think it won't for at least a year, then like Nascar says, late 2022 when the new factories are built sounds reasonable.
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 10:02 PM   #5
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2022. Mining may crash this year but I don’t believe prices will go down a lot.
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 10:28 PM   #6
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Quote:
Is this chip shortage going to last for another 6 months?


I think that the shortages will last well into 2022.

Normal distribution, where there is ample stock available on shelves to purchase, might be longer.
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Old Mar 4, 2021, 11:07 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Riptide View Post
BTW your RX580 if an 8GB model is worth a lot more than 330 right now.
Yup, it is. Geez, I can't believe it's worth so much, for a 3 year old card, in used state. Heck, I'd sell it, but then I wouldn't have anything to game on.
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Old Mar 5, 2021, 07:37 AM   #8
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You can sign up for Newegg Shuffle and keep your eye open for a card at major retailers. They still sell for MSRP or close to MSRP, it's just they sell out immediately.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SubCog View Post
Yup, it is. Geez, I can't believe it's worth so much, for a 3 year old card, in used state. Heck, I'd sell it, but then I wouldn't have anything to game on.
That's pretty much the boat we're all in.
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Old Mar 5, 2021, 11:48 AM   #9
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Mining is just the latest straw man for blame. These outages were before the latest mining bubble, and will continue after it.

Point is there has been a massive increase in demand due to COVID, and despite foundries increasing output 50% compared to 2019, production has not been enough.

We are still at least 6 months away from meeting demand according to AMD.
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Old Mar 5, 2021, 12:06 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by metroidfox View Post
We are still at least 6 months away from meeting demand according to AMD.
I don't know that I'd trust any company about these dates.

AMD has consistently had rosy outlooks on their card and supply. So has nVidia. At this point, I believe that AMD and nVidia will continue to put out rosy supply numbers basically just to keep their product names in the mix. The same way they keep releasing new cards only to have them MIA 5 seconds after release. AMD and Nvidia both had said that they expected supply to be increasing by now. It isn't. It's actually getting worse.

But it's free press and an excuse...
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Old Mar 5, 2021, 12:07 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by metroidfox View Post
Point is there has been a massive increase in demand due to COVID, and despite foundries increasing output 50% compared to 2019, production has not been enough.
I agree with this as being the main issue.

I work for an OEM system integrator and we are still having problems securing orders of more than a few pieces at a time for any RTX 30 series cards and we have a direct line to the major distribution channels so bots and other normal consumer hurdles are not an issue. They are just still not meeting demand after 5 months and its pathetic.
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Old Mar 10, 2021, 08:00 AM   #12
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A long, long time. MSRPs haven't been updated to reflect the OrangeManBad China tariffs so all cards will be at least 25% overpriced.
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Old Mar 10, 2021, 12:36 PM   #13
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Originally it was forecast to be around the end of summer (late August/Early Sept) but since there has been zero slowdown in people hoarding up the video cards and we are entering into spring and Etherium's value still holding high with no signs of slowdowns...it's looking more like at least another year.

Better hope our video cards don't take a crap, this would be the worst time in history to try and replace/upgrade.
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Old Mar 10, 2021, 12:40 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Destroy View Post
If mining crashes, the used video card market will be full of used cards.

If mining does not crash, and I think it won't for at least a year, then like Nascar says, late 2022 when the new factories are built sounds reasonable.
Two points;

1. I wouldn't buy a card that was used for mining. While the GPU would likely be in decent shape as many miners undervolt them, the fans are the problem as they are mechanical and running 24/7 at full tilt. This can wear them out very fast and once the fans break, good luck finding a replacement.

2. It's not a factory production problem, it's a silicon shortage problem. There is a world wide silicon shortage so bad that it's even putting many cars on back order because they need them for the computers in the cars. There are so many different industries competing and demanding silicon and there just isn't enough to go around. Building more factories won't do a damn thing if you don't have the key ingredient in building the product available.
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Old Mar 10, 2021, 12:45 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xCLAVEx View Post
Originally it was forecast to be around the end of summer (late August/Early Sept) but since there has been zero slowdown in people hoarding up the video cards and we are entering into spring and Etherium's value still holding high with no signs of slowdowns...it's looking more like at least another year.

Better hope our video cards don't take a crap, this would be the worst time in history to try and replace/upgrade.
Totally, SOL completely.
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Old Mar 16, 2021, 07:50 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nagorak View Post
You can sign up for Newegg Shuffle and keep your eye open for a card at major retailers. They still sell for MSRP or close to MSRP, it's just they sell out immediately.
Well I signed up for the Shuffle today and didn't win.
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Old Mar 16, 2021, 09:10 PM   #17
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Is that anything like the Curly Shuffle? You had a better chance when they allowed people to hunt. You find out the tricks that allow the score. That’s how I got mine from Newegg.
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Old Mar 16, 2021, 09:53 PM   #18
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Never. Hide yo high end GPUs!!

Srsly, Global Foundries has excess capacity... Why not bring back Vega64 (or Vega II) for miners? Port it to 12nm and crank it out.

Even my model V64 is going for $700-800 on Ebay right now.
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