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Old Mar 31, 2020, 11:41 AM   #1
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switchAMG
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Default COVID-19: Global Deaths by Sept 1 2020

Whats your guess for Sept 1st and why?

Yes, its a dark question but its reality.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 11:43 AM   #2
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You taking bets?
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 11:46 AM   #3
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over nine thousAAAAAANNNNNDDDD

more than august.


Im guessing somewhere around 75000
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 11:55 AM   #4
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I'm guessing roughly 50 9/11's by September 11, 2020.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 11:55 AM   #5
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79453

Quote:
Originally Posted by shrike126 View Post
I'm guessing roughly 50 9/11's by September 11, 2020.
Ho ho now we're talkin morbid

I wanna change my answer to 69696
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 11:56 AM   #6
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U.S. - 300,000

Globally - 3,000,000

Just wait till this hits the rest of Asia and Africa who don't have any healthcare systems.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 12:15 PM   #7
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Really afraid for places like India...

US anywhere from 100k to 2 million. Globally could be tens of millions.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 12:27 PM   #8
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I think US eclipses 1 million by the end of this, globally 20+ million.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 12:46 PM   #9
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Globally - 376,300,000
(7.8billion current world population, minus 2.5billion (for rate of contagion) at 7.1% mortality rate (current UK rate in lockdown).
I'm using the NHS numbers as a basis, as it's free health service, therefore more likely to be accurate.

Edit: Bear in mind we're on start of the roller coaster, once this things gets going...well i'd recommend not needing emergency medical attention for anything for a year or so.

EDITx2: Here's the US's influenza statistics for perspective of what Corona 7.1%mortality rate means in comparison to 0.1%
Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality by State

Disease Burden of Influenza
EDITx3 Fixed the links
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 01:24 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by switchAMG View Post
I think US eclipses 1 million by the end of this, globally 20+ million.
It would have to go through a few hemesphere cycles to do this.

Remember that the Spanish Flew, which is called Spanish because
all other Euro countries banned the mention for military morale reasons (!),
was propagated my nutritionally deficient soldiers coming home from the front,
all over the freggin world and extensively distributed inside packed troop ships.

This is a totally different situation.

We are at 41,250 today, not including CCP's stupid censored numbers,
my guess is 85,000 by 2020-09-01 and 160,000 by the end.

However, the huge wildcard is India...
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 02:22 PM   #11
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Assuming half the earth's population gets infected, with a 0.5% mortality rate, we're looking at ~23 million deaths. Probably not by Sept., but maybe by the following sept.

Hopefully the current phase is the only one that kills people... hopefully it goes away for the summer and then we'll all be well prepared for the next wave in the fall. Hopefully we have better treatments available then, and the mortality rate will drop to nearly zero.

Anyways, I'm going to guess 4 million worldwide deaths by Sept 1, 2020, with 150k of those in the USA. Hopefully it'll be alot less.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 02:29 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by SubCog View Post
Assuming half the earth's population gets infected, with a 0.5% mortality rate, we're looking at ~23 million deaths. Probably not by Sept., but maybe by the following sept.

Hopefully the current phase is the only one that kills people... hopefully it goes away for the summer and then we'll all be well prepared for the next wave in the fall. Hopefully we have better treatments available then, and the mortality rate will drop to nearly zero.

Anyways, I'm going to guess 4 million worldwide deaths by Sept 1, 2020, with 150k of those in the USA. Hopefully it'll be alot less.
you better plan on the 1 billion+ when we nuke China over this


god what a ****ing morbid thread
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 02:38 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterGoa View Post
It would have to go through a few hemesphere cycles to do this.

Remember that the Spanish Flew, which is called Spanish because
all other Euro countries banned the mention for military morale reasons (!),
was propagated my nutritionally deficient soldiers coming home from the front,
all over the freggin world and extensively distributed inside packed troop ships.

This is a totally different situation.

We are at 41,250 today, not including CCP's stupid censored numbers,
my guess is 85,000 by 2020-09-01 and 160,000 by the end.

However, the huge wildcard is India...
Yeah Pakistan has just got on board, so watch this space, what is interesting is how Germany seems to be fairing
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 02:40 PM   #14
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I don't know, how many are there?

Even better.

I can imagine an awful lot kid!

Well I hope no Ragers get it at least!!
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 02:52 PM   #15
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god what a ****ing morbid thread

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Old Mar 31, 2020, 02:53 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by bill dennison View Post
you better plan on the 1 billion+ when we nuke China over this


god what a ****ing morbid thread
China is totally gonna sit back and take it up the bum
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 03:00 PM   #17
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China is totally gonna sit back and take it up the bum
They should just nuke themselves for being a piece of **** country.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 03:16 PM   #18
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They are not a piece of **** country, they have a piece of **** leadership. The people are in the same boat we are.

Having them stop eating bats would be good though. But then again, MERS was mutated through camels... SARS 1 in 2003 was from bats through Civets.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 03:44 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterGoa View Post
They are not a piece of **** country, they have a piece of **** leadership. The people are in the same boat we are.

Having them stop eating bats would be good though. But then again, MERS was mutated through camels... SARS 1 in 2003 was from bats through Civets.
Wasn't the Spanish flu, the deadliest pandemic in human history, linked to Pigs and Chicken in Western Europe?
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 04:15 PM   #20
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Really depends if it gets in India in a big way and if they actually report numbers. I doubt the latter. By September, I'll say maybe 2-3 million deaths.

New countries in major trouble include Turkey, Indonesia, and Brazil.

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Old Mar 31, 2020, 04:24 PM   #21
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5 million through September 2020 and 10 million more the next year.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 04:57 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Cool Dude View Post
Wasn't the Spanish flu, the deadliest pandemic in human history, linked to Pigs and Chicken in Western Europe?
There are no less than 7 possible scenarios of it's origin so I really can't say.

If you look at the last 30 years though, Chinese wet markets seems like a bad idea.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 05:56 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shrike126 View Post
I'm guessing roughly 50 9/11's by September 11, 2020.
911 times 100

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZcZ6eJoxeE

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Old Mar 31, 2020, 07:36 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Cool Dude View Post
Wasn't the Spanish flu, the deadliest pandemic in human history, linked to Pigs and Chicken in Western Europe?
The Black Death was worse, killing an estimated 75-100 million, which at the time was a fair chunk of the world's population, iirc.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 08:19 PM   #25
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Well the US predicts 100k there alone so I guess I am a naive optimist.
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Old Mar 31, 2020, 10:05 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterGoa View Post
It would have to go through a few hemesphere cycles to do this.

Remember that the Spanish Flew, which is called Spanish because
all other Euro countries banned the mention for military morale reasons (!),
was propagated my nutritionally deficient soldiers coming home from the front,
all over the freggin world and extensively distributed inside packed troop ships.
you're half right. those country's at war had press censorship. spain, being neutral, didn't and was therefore able to report freely on the outbreak. so, everyone started calling it spanish flu, since that's where it was originally reported from

oh, 2.33 billion when all is said and done
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Old Apr 5, 2020, 09:29 AM   #27
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Just double checked the UK figures and the mortality rate is up to 10.3%!
Which equates to
if the current UK total deaths = 4313
if you have a 50% chance of survival in intensive care and 25% of being admitted intensive care, if hospitalised;
Therefore that would equate to 34504 out of the 41903 case confirmed cases where hospitalised

That would mean that the current likely hood of being hospitalised if infected is 82.3% chance.
Note the above doesn't take into account those that didn't make to hospital in the first place, but that's likely still meaning a 80-75% of being hospitalised if infected.

Not meaning to scare monger, but that's the current UK numbers as of 04/04/20.
https://www.gov.uk/government/public...onavirus-cases
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Old Apr 5, 2020, 12:40 PM   #28
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Here we are looking at more than 200k. Globally probably +10 million when all said and done
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Old Apr 5, 2020, 03:56 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pax View Post
Really afraid for places like India...

US anywhere from 100k to 2 million. Globally could be tens of millions.
Speaking of India, why are there no reports of the outbreak over there? What is going on? Even in a full lock down people are going to get infected, yet we have heard nothing about India. Something isn't right...

EDIT: Only a little over 3k infected in a country of over 1 billion? I don't buy it.
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Old Apr 5, 2020, 04:11 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xCLAVEx View Post
Speaking of India, why are there no reports of the outbreak over there? What is going on? Even in a full lock down people are going to get infected, yet we have heard nothing about India. Something isn't right...

EDIT: Only a little over 3k infected in a country of over 1 billion? I don't buy it.
You realize their testing and reporting capacity is a shambles, as is pretty much everything else in a 3rd world country like India?
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