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-   -   Why AMD’s best days are behind it (http://www.rage3d.com/board/showthread.php?t=34050591)

acroig Feb 6, 2020 09:32 AM

Why AMD’s best days are behind it
 
"Last year, AMD should have made significant gains in servers and PCs. After all, Intel had an interim CEO, faced supply shortages and missed its target dates to launch a number of new platforms. Meanwhile, AMD came to market with 7nm chip variants for its client and data center. Essentially, AMD had the better chip technology and Intel in some cases couldn’t even ship product.

But rather than run away with market share, AMD made only a few small dents to Intel’s business — mostly in PCs. And because Intel had periods where it couldn’t deliver its newest products or products at all, it begs the question of whether AMD had convinced PC buyers with its “better technology” or merely benefited from having supplies when Intel did not."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...-it-2020-02-06

Don't think I agree with this, what you guys think?

NWR_Midnight Feb 6, 2020 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acroig (Post 1338174904)
"Last year, AMD should have made significant gains in servers and PCs. After all, Intel had an interim CEO, faced supply shortages and missed its target dates to launch a number of new platforms. Meanwhile, AMD came to market with 7nm chip variants for its client and data center. Essentially, AMD had the better chip technology and Intel in some cases couldn’t even ship product.

But rather than run away with market share, AMD made only a few small dents to Intel’s business — mostly in PCs. And because Intel had periods where it couldn’t deliver its newest products or products at all, it begs the question of whether AMD had convinced PC buyers with its “better technology” or merely benefited from having supplies when Intel did not."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...-it-2020-02-06

Don't think I agree with this, what you guys think?

Uh, no. They are making this claim based on Data Center sales.

They also don't understand how Companies plan, develop, and Allocate funds for upgrades or building new data centers. What they sold last year, most of the funds, planning, and contracts where long before 2019, with most of it being done in 2017 to mid 2018. There is no way that AMD could go to such companies in 2017, early 2018 and convince them to use their "better" technology before it was even available in 2019. There is also the "Trust" factor. Many have relied on Intel for years, and it will take time for AMD to build the same level of "Trust".

An Example is the company I work for: they have spent the last 2 years planning, seeking investors, testing and researching equipment for a big expansions (new equipment, additional equipment, etc). They finalized it all last month (funds, equipment, etc). They won't break ground until the middle of next year.

acroig Feb 6, 2020 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NWR_Midnight (Post 1338174921)
Uh, no. They are making this claim based on Data Center sales.

They also don't understand how Companies plan, develop, and Allocate funds for upgrades or building new data centers. What they sold last year, most of the funds, planning, and contracts where long before 2019, with most of it being done in 2017 to mid 2018. There is no way that AMD could go to such companies in 2017, early 2018 and convince them to use their "better" technology before it was even available in 2019. There is also the "Trust" factor. Many have relied on Intel for years, and it will take time for AMD to build the same level of "Trust".

An Example is the company I work for: they have spent the last 2 years planning, seeking investors, testing and researching equipment for a big expansions (new equipment, additional equipment, etc). They finalized it all last month (funds, equipment, etc). They won't break ground until the middle of next year.

All good points, thanks.

pax Feb 6, 2020 11:05 AM

I did read that supply was tight for amd and that might be killing some oem sales who need volume. Its selling just about every cpu it can make and DYI is buying most of it. It cant make more as 7nm is sold out at TSMC for now.

But. Apple will switch to 5nm in the 2H leaving its huge 7nm slot at TSMC up for grabs and looks like AMD will buy all of it. We'll see if AMD can keep on growing with it then which should allow it to reach in the range of 30-40% market share.

bill dennison Feb 6, 2020 02:43 PM

:lol:


https://twitter.com/danielnewmanuv/s...684929?lang=en


a real Intel pocket puppet :lol:


the kickbacks and payments to use Intel will start soon if not already

MasterGoa Feb 10, 2020 07:24 AM

This is unfortunately the way "news" organizations run their places nowadays.

Spectacular titles for clicks and revenue...

Look at the comments section for a laugh.
But if you do, you are incentivising them to spew out more crap like this ;)

gamefoo21 Feb 10, 2020 11:38 AM

Actually if you consider when Zen landed, it was at massively lucky time.

Zen sucked against the 7700K and it was 14nm
Zen+ held clawed it's way to relevance against the 8700K and it is 12nm.
Zen 2 is more or less equal to the 9700K and it is 7nm/12nm combo.
Zen 2 APUs will be pure 7nm and monolithic. What's a little concerning though is AMD has killed PCIe 4 for mobile and haven't said if the desktop ones will have it.

Intel has been struggling with making the cobalt wires work. Something the other fabs haven't had to do yet. Also there's the fact that the 10nm Intel chips are faster in IPC than Zen 2.

So AMD has to keep it's foot to the floor, because Intel is coming.

There's also the fact that the other fabs actually use a normally small part to say this is their size. So Intel's 10nm is actually in some ways smaller than 7nm. So AMD has to scramble because their node advantage is vanishing.

One of my biggest concerns with AMD CPUs is that the dies aren't welded on like with Intel. They are soldered, so they are hugely susceptible to solder cracking due to different thermal expansion coefficients. With the 3000 Zen 2 parts you already have very different thermal capacities with the 12nm IO die and the 7nm CCXs. I don't think as a result we'll see many of them make a decade of use. I mean I still have Core 2 machines as Daily drivers.

Mobile is even harder on those joints, which is why I suspect that the mobile Zen 2 chippies are monolithic. You luckily on desktop don't have the same kind of temperature swings even the crummy stock coolers provide a significant amount of thermal dampening. In most laptops you'll be lucky to have 100 grams of cooler not including the fan. NV found this out the hard way when they cut corners on the solder and mobile GPUs were dieing like popcorn. GPUs are still the most likely point of failure for that.

All in all...

AMD got hugely lucky and has had time to sort out the weaknesses of Zen while Intel has struggled. AMD has only so long before Intel gets their shiza sorted and like I said Intel is coming.

I don't think Intel will crush AMD like they did when AMD went Slowdozer, but I balso don't think that AMD is going to get another K8/K9 vs Pentium D situation. I think we'll see actual competition with both trading blows.

Gandalfthewhite Feb 10, 2020 02:51 PM

AMD still has room 7nm+ is already in the works and it looks like TSMC 5nm will be ready for mass production next year. So fab lead is still a thing for now. if they can keep ahead of intel in that regard and keep getting 10+% IPC of pure efficiency gains they won't have a problem in the near to mid term.

gamefoo21 Feb 10, 2020 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gandalfthewhite (Post 1338175613)
AMD still has room 7nm+ is already in the works and it looks like TSMC 5nm will be ready for mass production next year. So fab lead is still a thing for now. if they can keep ahead of intel in that regard and keep getting 10+% IPC of pure efficiency gains they won't have a problem in the near to mid term.

Oh I agree, but the advantage of really having a node advantage is disappearing.

Intel's 10nm is like 6nm on the other guys.

Which is why I think we'll be going into an era of competition, the back and forth, fist fighting. AMD got massively lucky, because if Intel dropping to 10nm went smoothly, I think we'd have seen a very different outcome currently. I am honestly glad that AMD got a chance to come back. It was depressing when all they had were the kitty cat cores. :bleh:

DeathKnight Feb 10, 2020 06:43 PM

Skip to 2:30


Gandalfthewhite Feb 10, 2020 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gamefoo21 (Post 1338175658)
Oh I agree, but the advantage of really having a node advantage is disappearing.

Intel's 10nm is like 6nm on the other guys.

Which is why I think we'll be going into an era of competition, the back and forth, fist fighting. AMD got massively lucky, because if Intel dropping to 10nm went smoothly, I think we'd have seen a very different outcome currently. I am honestly glad that AMD got a chance to come back. It was depressing when all they had were the kitty cat cores. :bleh:

oh totally agree on the luck. But they are also pushing chipset tech which intel has been changing sockets and not really adding anything other than a thunderbolt port here or a usb-c port there. Its part of the reason the market was ready for change. The server market AMD is making wins that wont pay out for another year or two because of hardware purchase cycles I think we should start seeing an uptick in server marketshare by the end of 2021 or they wont be able to hold overall market.

acroig Feb 11, 2020 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathKnight (Post 1338175671)
Skip to 2:30


Very informative, thanks. +rep

gamefoo21 Feb 12, 2020 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gandalfthewhite (Post 1338175699)
oh totally agree on the luck. But they are also pushing chipset tech which intel has been changing sockets and not really adding anything other than a thunderbolt port here or a usb-c port there. Its part of the reason the market was ready for change. The server market AMD is making wins that wont pay out for another year or two because of hardware purchase cycles I think we should start seeing an uptick in server marketshare by the end of 2021 or they wont be able to hold overall market.

I think X570 is definitely a push ahead but...

X470 is PCIe 2.0 and nothing but a more enabled X370. B450 is just a cut down version. These are made by Asmedia.

B550 is a different beast to X570, as it's made by Asmedia, is PCIe 3.0 and Asmedia bungled it bad to cause serious delays.

They broke X399 compatibility why again? But we get TRX40 that may or may not get Zen 3... AMD hasn't exactly been clear.

AMD hasn't exactly been so great on the chipset front and part of that is because they've had to farm it out. Which has really held them back in some noticable ways

Also...

Is PC Jesus still on his hate AMD bender?

bill dennison Feb 12, 2020 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gamefoo21 (Post 1338175994)
I think X570 is definitely a push ahead but...

X470 is PCIe 2.0 and nothing but a more enabled X370. B450 is just a cut down version. These are made by Asmedia.

B550 is a different beast to X570, as it's made by Asmedia, is PCIe 3.0 and Asmedia bungled it bad to cause serious delays.

They broke X399 compatibility why again? But we get TRX40 that may or may not get Zen 3... AMD hasn't exactly been clear.

AMD hasn't exactly been so great on the chipset front and part of that is because they've had to farm it out. Which has really held them back in some noticable ways

Also...

Is PC Jesus still on his hate AMD bender?

depends on the day of the month :bleh:

the_sextein Feb 12, 2020 07:27 PM

Myself, I think AMD is on it's way to making a return to the top of the pile. When 4000 hits I would think their core efficiency and possible frequency improvements should allow them to land a chip that is clearly better in all ways. Their motherboards have full support for the latest technologies and Intel won't be able to push out a new design in time to retaliate in a timely manor.

If Intel pushes out something better later in the year then it could steal some of AMD's thunder but we don't know what intel's new architecture will be able to achieve. If Intel puts out a dud then AMD could end up returning to the Athlon 64 days of domination. I don't see any reason to believe that AMD's best days are behind it. They are on the verge of raising to the very top at the moment and we have no idea what they have planned for the future.

AMD's biggest concern is going to be holding on the server market because it will require a sustained lead before companies start to jump ship in droves.

gamefoo21 Feb 14, 2020 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bill dennison (Post 1338175995)
depends on the day of the month :bleh:

Now they are rampaging about how crap the Radeon drivers are but they can't reproduce the problems themselves... :nuts:

I thought Steve was a hater of the Reddit hive mind after that's where the anon posted he was on the take from NV marketing. He proceeded to torch TechPowerUp, now several big YouTube channels won't even reference TPU even though they post things before him, because of the taint. PC Jesus refused their apology for reporting an anonymous report.

Makes my head hurt, because he hides his suppliers of information and equipment to protect their identities... :hmm:

gamefoo21 Feb 14, 2020 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_sextein (Post 1338176011)
Myself, I think AMD is on it's way to making a return to the top of the pile. When 4000 hits I would think their core efficiency and possible frequency improvements should allow them to land a chip that is clearly better in all ways. Their motherboards have full support for the latest technologies and Intel won't be able to push out a new design in time to retaliate in a timely manor.

If Intel pushes out something better later in the year then it could steal some of AMD's thunder but we don't know what intel's new architecture will be able to achieve. If Intel puts out a dud then AMD could end up returning to the Athlon 64 days of domination. I don't see any reason to believe that AMD's best days are behind it. They are on the verge of raising to the very top at the moment and we have no idea what they have planned for the future.

AMD's biggest concern is going to be holding on the server market because it will require a sustained lead before companies start to jump ship in droves.

God I had fun with Pentium M's and laying waste to 64 FXs...

I loved me some Dothan. It was really ironic that a tuned up Pentium 3 was AMD's worst nightmare. :drool:

There's a big difference this time around...

Intel is faster in Gaming
AMD is faster at Work.

It's completely reversed from the A64 vs P4 days. Though AMD still falls on it's face when faced with large amounts of ram. :lol:

the_sextein Feb 14, 2020 03:53 PM

At the moment yes. As you are probably aware, I was pretty unhappy with the AMD 3000 performance but they look like they may be able to pull ahead across the board with AM5 and the 4000 series. If they could have had a 17% IPC improvement and slightly higher clocks last year they would have had years of domination which would have been very healthy for the PC industry and would have made me happy.

Once I noticed their IPC was within 1% of Intel's and their clock frequencies were lower, that is when I started talking negative about them before the release of the 3000. I don't think they will let me down this time though. I hope not.

gamefoo21 Feb 15, 2020 02:33 PM

Well unless something has changed as far as I know the 4000 series is coming on AM4.

AM5 is likely DDR5, and the 5000 series.

From a marketing stand point it's a slam dunk. Heh

bill dennison Feb 15, 2020 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gamefoo21 (Post 1338176483)
Well unless something has changed as far as I know the 4000 series is coming on AM4.

AM5 is likely DDR5, and the 5000 series.

From a marketing stand point it's a slam dunk. Heh

and most likely PCIE 5.0 before intel again

but AM5 is next year and not needed on the 4000's

the_sextein Feb 15, 2020 04:18 PM

Oh I didn't know that. I thought they were going to wait for AM5 before releasing. Either way, I agree that they are on their way to dominating both the server market and the mainstream market.

bill dennison Feb 15, 2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_sextein (Post 1338176490)
Oh I didn't know that. I thought they were going to wait for AM5 before releasing. Either way, I agree that they are on their way to dominating both the server market and the mainstream market.

if the 4000's are as good as the laptop 4000's look

AMD may have the server market and the mainstream market ( both gaming and HEDT ) and laptops


Intel sat on its laurels way too long and fed it's customer base high dollar dog cookies

and now they are going to get the bill in lost market share

the_sextein Feb 15, 2020 06:04 PM

Anyone who expected Intel to release ground breaking tech with great value when they had no competition from AMD does not understand how business works. I blame AMD more than Intel for the lack of progress from both companies. They've caused the same problems in the GPU market where Nvidia puts out a new card every two years at double the price now. Lets not forget that those dog cookies from Intel outperformed AMD's 3000 series a year early and cost less money. I'm positive to whoever puts out the best tech. I don't care how old it's origins are or how many +++ are behind the tech. It's all about performance for me.

AMD is going to be ahead but it has nothing to do with any of that anyway. It's because Intel's 10nm manufacturing had problems which is something AMD farms out to other parties. Either way, I'm glad to see them finally raise back up to the top thanks to Intel's 10nm blunder. I wish they could have done it sooner with the 3000 series in the mainstream sector last year.

As for the stock market, I really don't care but from I have seen, Intel could stop selling mainstream CPU's altogether and it would hardly dent them. They are ridiculously rich and have expanded far beyond desktop PC hardware.

Nascar24 Feb 16, 2020 05:54 PM

Lol, blame AMD, your a total intel shill, AMD does not have the money intel has.

the_sextein Feb 16, 2020 06:05 PM

Sure bub.:lol:

bill dennison Feb 16, 2020 06:12 PM

how this "business works" from mine and many gamers perspective is Intel lost business

tons of it many like me sat on their old Intel CPU's till Ryzen came out
in my case a 3930k and 3770k
just not going to upgrade for 5% and them needing a new socket every ****en time so we have to buy a new motherboard every new gen :nuts:


then i jumped a sinking ship after being on Intel since my last AMD a 486
and a lot went to AMD and more and more are still doing it every day

https://www.cpubenchmark.net/market_share.html

the_sextein Feb 16, 2020 06:21 PM

AMD didn't apply any pressure on Intel and all Intel needed to do was push out 5% improvements to stay ahead of them. So you rewarded AMD with a purchase of a CPU that was even slower than Intel's 5% improvement that came out a year ago. Makes sense.

I'm surprised you guys didn't buy AMD's slower graphic cards that came out a year late as well. Nvidia used to put out a new chip every year that was 30% faster and now they put out one every two years that is 30% faster and costs twice as much. Intel and Nvidia have more money than AMD, I wonder why? Is it because of the shills?:lol: No it's because they beat their competition and now they charge premiums for their products since they have no competition.

I'm glad AMD has been given a chance to get ahead and I was mad that they didn't take that chance last year. I don't care about the stock markets or who is winning. I just think your reasoning makes no sense and comes off hypocritical. If AMD has the best chip on the market the next time I'm buying you can count on me to reward them with my cash and argue with Intel fanboys who buy inferior chips that come out a year late.

bill dennison Feb 16, 2020 06:34 PM

i rewarded AMD with my 1800x because they came out with something new chiplets

and being on 4k the small single core lead intel had at the time did not matter much at all
i just do not care if intel is faster at 1080p low settings ...... i don't play that way

and i rewarded AMD again with my 3800x because they came out with something new PCIE 4.0 and a 25% faster 8 core over my 1800x on the same socket
even if i bought a x570 MB because i had a use for my old 1800x & MB for my bike trainer

i passed on the 2700x

i will see with the 4000's i may get a 12 or 16 core if they get 25% faster

Nascar24 Feb 16, 2020 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_sextein (Post 1338176635)
Sure bub.:lol:

Nice you finally get it!:up::lol:

Hell intel can’t even implement pci 4 correctly yet to you AMD is inferior but wins at everything outside gaming as well. You really need to read your posts. And most that your talking to here hasn’t owned AMD products for 20 years. Hardly fanboys.

the_sextein Feb 16, 2020 08:29 PM

While bill is well informed he shows a clear bias toward AMD and only looks at AMD's performance improvements against AMD's previous builds. He makes excuses for buying inferior hardware. Personally I don't mind that but his comments about Intel are hypocritical.

You however, are ill informed and come off as a pure fanboy though and through and your pathetic attempts at trolling me make you look worse every time you try it. Outside of that, I haven't accused anyone on this forum of being a fanboy. Since most of us are gamers, the server market is unimportant unless you are a fanboy who wants to talk about brand superiority and how one brand is winning because it's selling more or performing better in some area that applies to no one on here. I don't care about the server market or the stock market. How's that PCIE 4.0 doing for you? Providing any benefit? When it does let me know and I will tell you how PCIE 5.0 is working out for me.:lol:


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