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-   -   NVDA CEO says NV30 not taped out yet (http://www.rage3d.com/board/showthread.php?t=33628954)

JetLab Jul 30, 2002 04:31 PM

NVDA CEO says NV30 not taped out yet
 
http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/8/20568.html

He says the NV30 has not finished taping out and it won't be available until the "holiday season"

Nvidia also warned they will miss revenues by $150m and will breakeven this quarter.

Doomtrooper Jul 30, 2002 04:34 PM

Now where is Typedefenum when you need him :hmm:

Hellbinder Jul 30, 2002 04:35 PM

errmm..

WOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!!

I only say this becuase of all the *crap* that the Nvidian's and their PR machine has been throwing out... This is EXACTLY what i have been saying based on industry Finance type insider reports. If you want to know the truth.. Talk to the guys that control the cash ;)

I am not Happy that Nvidia is missing their profits by that much. As much as I dislike them, there are still a lot of good people with retirement etc locked into the stock.

Nagorak Jul 30, 2002 04:48 PM

I wonder if they really were that far behind, or if they saw the R300 and were like "****! Back to the drawing board!"

;)

Peter S Jul 30, 2002 04:54 PM

By Christmas if they're lucky...
 
I simply cannot believe this news. I thought the NV30 was far closer to production than this! How long does it usually take to go from tape-out to a final production board? Could this late tape-out have anything to do with the .13u problems they're having with TSMC or is this the result of last minute changes to counter the confirmed specs of the R300?

I really feel sorry for Nvidia's engineers and driver programmers; they're going to be burning the midnight oil from now until those NV30 chips are shipped out the door to manufacturers.

This is fantastic news for ATI.

brogs Jul 30, 2002 04:56 PM

i think that die shrink .013 is really starting to hurt em now

Hellbinder Jul 30, 2002 05:03 PM

Quote:

I simply cannot believe this news. I thought the NV30 was far closer to production than this! How long does it usually take to go from tape-out to a final production board? Could this late tape-out have anything to do with the .13u problems they're having with TSMC or is this the result of last minute changes to counter the confirmed specs of the R300?
8-12 weeks if the sun, moon, and stars align. That is also only giving the driver teams a realatively *short* time to work with the actual hardware.

It usually always takes at least 2 revisions to get to a production quality sample. And that is not even addressing the level of quality yields... Yields that will be *critical* For Nvidia to get a clock speed out of the Nv30 they will need to bead the R300. Especially considering the 3 month of driver maturity time ATi will have..

If It tapes out say early August.. and everything goes *perfect* after that.. you are looking the First week of november for the first real production quality samples.. Seriously.. they are looking at december at the *EARLIEST* to actually launch at this point.

This is not Fanboy talk.. this is how the real world works. This is EXACTLY what industry insiders... and Myself... Have been saying on this board for a few weeks now.. nothing till november.. And even then only a small sampling..

Ati is not looking so stupid for going with their design now.. are they...

Someotherdude Jul 30, 2002 05:18 PM

NV30 screenshots, hehe...

Nagorak Jul 30, 2002 05:22 PM

.

ChrisW Jul 30, 2002 05:24 PM

If this is true then I would think they scrapped the NV30 design and replaced it with the NV35. I read a webpage that said nVidia is dumping TSMC for another company. It's all still rumors to me...

BlackBirdSR Jul 30, 2002 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Someotherdude
NV30 screenshots, hehe...
don't be a troll... :D

we may not have any samples of our NV30 yet, but projections and our highly capable marketing told us here at the engineers buidling that the chips would be capable to render those in super-real-time, with ueber photo realistic quality.
well that is if we had one.. but we're pretty confident here that we'll soon have one, at least that's what us engineers is being told by the management.

so, you can take those screenshots for real, they's basicly rendered on an NV30, it's just not done yet..
but we're told it's gonna happen as soon as we have the first chip, which can only be a matter of hours now says our finance chief.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

jima13 Jul 30, 2002 05:44 PM

after hours trading
 
NVDA closed the regular session @ $16.22, trading was halted on the news and when it reopened was hammered down into the $12+ range.....oops:eek:

Himself Jul 30, 2002 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Nagorak
It's already July 30th...what do you consider 'early' July?
He meant next year. heheh :)

DavyBoyWonder Jul 30, 2002 05:55 PM

Re: after hours trading
 
Quote:

Originally posted by jima13
NVDA closed the regular session @ $16.22, trading was halted on the news and when it reopened was hammered down into the $12+ range.....oops:eek:
ATI was trading lower after the bell to, but that can be chalked up to people thinking the graphics chip sector was bad and not just Nvidia.

Tomorrow I hope people seperate the two, and shoot ATI to the moon.

This is a day fanATIcs will remember.

jjjayb Jul 30, 2002 06:12 PM

Anyone else able to listen to the audio? I keep getting a lady saying "stream not available."

Sir Galahad Jul 30, 2002 06:15 PM

Re: Re: after hours trading
 
Quote:

Originally posted by DavyBoyWonder


ATI was trading lower after the bell to, but that can be chalked up to people thinking the graphics chip sector was bad and not just Nvidia.

Tomorrow I hope people seperate the two, and shoot ATI to the moon.

This is a day fanATIcs will remember.

ATIs saving grace is that they have already provided conservative guidance where nvidia on the other hand... had to change their guidance lower..... ;) I knew this was comming. hehe. Now ATI has smooth sailing for top end demand and as a result their low end will enjoy some good OEM design wins.. Cheers. The sell off on ATI is only temperary as ATI already provided lower numbers last quarter, soon the market will realize that ATI is number one graphics technology leader and ATI will benifit greatly..BUY ATI stocks on this dip, great opprotunity really.

Galvatron Jul 30, 2002 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Doomtrooper
Now where is Typedefenum when you need him :hmm:

LOL...him and Cain Syris are probably still in shock.:)

CainSyris Jul 30, 2002 06:25 PM

I'd be very surprised to see a graphics card company, like ATI, see a stock improvement based on a 400 dollar card that is outside of the reach of most consumers and thus will have no effect on the market in any appreciable way, a company with only their first time being in the top performance echelon, and a video card company that has not actually shipped any R9700's to reviewers, let alone to anybody else.

Don't forget that right now nV still has the top performing card and, if Best Buy is to be believed, it will be September before that changes. I honestly cannot see why ATI users continue to dance around the fire that is nV not having their DX 9 card out now, but forget that indeed ATI is still a ways away from releasing their own. ;)

I think, if I were you, I'd wait until R9700 is launched before I would even BEGIN to speculate on stocks rising. And, more than that, all stocks are down, not just nV's. Don't exaggerate announcements as meaning more than they do.

So in summary:

1) nV's nv30 will be late in coming. No doubt.
2) high-end video cards do not a great stock make.
3) high-end cards affect a very small percentage of the people buying video cards
4) sales of the low and mid-end make up more of the market and right now, ATI is looking piss-poor there.
5) ATI's super-card is not even out yet and all indications suggest it is still some time away. ATI says less than 30 days, but reviewers should be getting their cards, if their two weeks they said, were true.

And, of course, technically, holiday season is anywhere from November to December. ;) Not that they can pull it out of their butt instantly. Still, nV's pulled rabbits out of their hats before and it is too soon for any self-respecting ATI fanatic to shoot up fireworks. So many talk about PR, but its ATI who's putting out the mega-PR atm and not even giving cards out to reviewers. ;) Tsk, tsk.

Let's wait until September before we laugh about how high-end video cards do not affect the stock market, eh? ;)

JetLab Jul 30, 2002 06:42 PM

Having the best high-end part is important because it means ATI is a cycle ahead of the competition and can bring it down to mainstream much quicker. Best Buy says Sept. for 9700 but it gives the same date for the 9000 so its inaccurate.

Orbius Jul 30, 2002 06:43 PM

Talked to a guy from Ati and he said it takes 6 months after the first tapeout until you get it on the shelves if everything goes relatively smoothly.

Of course Ati is always kind of tardy, maybe 6 months to Ati means 3 months to Nvidia. :p

Though Nvidia dumping TMSC like a hot rock means they're throwing a hissy fit over their Nv30 production.

My bet is they'll say the Nv30 is released in late November and give a few samples to hardware sites a la Ati 9700 and maybe a few will be available before the end of the year with mass production ramping up by late January, Feburary.

woolfee Jul 30, 2002 06:49 PM

"I'd be very surprised to see a graphics card company, like ATI, see a stock improvement based on a 400 dollar card that is outside of the reach of most consumers and thus will have no effect on the market in any appreciable way,

...

2) high-end video cards do not a great stock make.
3) high-end cards affect a very small percentage of the people buying video cards"


Apparently, you fail to understand the importance of a flagship product, particularly in this industry. The flagship video card determines the mindshare of the company; it creates a perception as to who is the market leader and who isn't. That perception *directly* affects stock prices. When financial news is released regarding a company, why do you think they discuss how far along a flagship product is? Because the investors want to know. And why do these companies compete so vehemently for the high-end performance crown? Because they think its fun to be on top? No, it's for the same reason that any company does anything - because it carries huge financial rewards. The company perceived as "on top" performance-wise has an advantage in obtaining OEM contracts and in selling value add-on parts. For every person buying a GF4 ti4600, there are 5 buying a GF4mx because they think everything with Nvidia's name on it turns to gold. And every flagship parts completes its life cycle in some form as a value or integrated solution down the line. The success of the product identity as a flagship bears dividends when the part (or a version thereof) is marketed in higher volume, lower margin channels. People who state that high-end cards are too much of a niche product to make a financial difference for these companies continually misunderstand this issue.

Not much more to say, except that you can bet that Nvidia is highly concerned about the delay of this product relative to what ATI is doing right now. It won't make or break them as a company, but it IS a highly significant concern.

Hellbinder Jul 30, 2002 07:05 PM

Heh.. i ment august... I keep doing that... even at work.. :hmm:

jjjayb Jul 30, 2002 07:09 PM

The audio stream is working now. The part where he says it's not taped out yet is at around the 8minute 10 seconds mark. In his answer he says one of the areas Nvidia has been very good at is going quickly from tape out to production. Anyone have any figures from their previous cards? Time it took to go from tape out to production on the gforce, gforce2, gforce3, gforce4?

John Reynolds Jul 30, 2002 07:20 PM

Not good. I was hoping for a Oct/Nov release date for NV30 to give more choice and to help push down 9700 prices if the latter is the better part (for me).

Hellbinder Jul 30, 2002 07:20 PM

Quote:

1) nV's nv30 will be late in coming. No doubt.
2) high-end video cards do not a great stock make.
3) high-end cards affect a very small percentage of the people buying video cards
4) sales of the low and mid-end make up more of the market and right now, ATI is looking piss-poor there.
5) ATI's super-card is not even out yet and all indications suggest it is still some time away. ATI says less than 30 days, but reviewers should be getting their cards, if their two weeks they said, were true.
Does this guy even LIVE on planet earth??? im mean.. REALLY! This is *the* defenition of a blind one eyed fanboy right here folks.. no doubt about it...

High End Video cards are the *ENTIRE* basis for Stock trading.. Are you for real?? You clearly had better *never* get into online trading.. you will lose your ass. Its about industry leadership and delivering industry leading products.. on time... Nothing else matters. period.

You comment about low and mid is simply false.. ATi is clearly leading the market with Radeon LE.. There is no question. Nvidia was not even in the game till the Ti 4200 launched.

Quote:

5) ATI's super-card is not even out yet and all indications suggest it is still some time away. ATI says less than 30 days, but reviewers should be getting their cards, if their two weeks they said, were true.
This statemnet is just plain Assinine. The card is already in final form. It exsists. People have held it in their hands.. What the hell does *some time away* mean exacly??? Are you trying to push the idea that a mid september launch is the same thing as Nvidias *december if we are lucky* launch?? MY GOD.... you need therapy.

Ati is going to start offering cards in august. 3rd parties in September. Everyone has seen what the card can do even in beta form.... Everyone knows that the 9700 is litterally a coupple weeks from showtime..

How can people even write this crapola? It only makes you look like a fool.

GrrrPoop Jul 30, 2002 07:33 PM

I was hoping that nV30 would be out by xmas too, I don't fancy coughing up 300 for an R9700.. in fact I'm damn sure I won't!

So.. I guess this news is good for ATI, but bad for the consumer.

Still kind of enjoying it tho, seeing the nVidiots in denial. Can everyone spell that? D - E - N - I - A - L :D Just checking ;)

Have to say that for those without particular affiliation to either company, nV releasing their working samples for review around late Nov / early Dec will give them doubts. The reviews will appear right when people are making their Xmas lists, I don't think many people will disagree with that..

I'm sure nV30 will at least be the equal of R9700, but it all comes down to price and whether or not you can actually buy the damn things! :hmm:

nVidia are by no means screwed, but I still think they screwed up.

LordPain Jul 30, 2002 07:43 PM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA..........HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Had to catch my breath. This is as funny as it gets. :lol: :D

sherlock Jul 30, 2002 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hellbinder
errmm..
WOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!!
I only say this becuase of all the *crap* that the Nvidian's and their PR machine has been throwing out... This is EXACTLY what i have been saying based on industry Finance type insider reports. If you want to know the truth.. Talk to the guys that control the cash ;)
I am not Happy that Nvidia is missing their profits by that much. As much as I dislike them, there are still a lot of good people with retirement etc locked into the stock.

Hellbinder must be a truly considerate person to let his consideration for others get in the way of his reveling in Nvidia's loss. Admirable.
Poor Nvidia, Imagine how hard it must of been for them to accept that they couldn't just add another shader or some new ram to the old GF3 and cry "One more go for old time sake!". I could just see their minions chanting "one more go...one more go" ;)

It's really for their own good they've got serious competion, they were getting a bit thick around the middle. It's better for the whole industry.

Moose Jul 30, 2002 08:19 PM

well this sucks.. because I'm waiting for both the R300 and the Nv30 so I can "choose wisely".

Now I have to wait longer. :(

JetLab Jul 30, 2002 08:36 PM

Ouch it looks like Nvidia investors are pretty angry right now

http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=NVDA


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