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-   -   Nintendo Switch sales predictions (http://www.rage3d.com/board/showthread.php?t=34033762)

SubCog Jan 18, 2017 06:16 PM

Nintendo Switch sales predictions
 
Now that the Switch has been revealed, how do you think it'll perform this generation?

dmanna Jan 18, 2017 06:26 PM

How many years are we talking? I will say 30 million after 4 years. I feel like that might be on the high side.

Greasy Jan 18, 2017 07:31 PM

I'm thinking 25-30 million.

Nascar24 Jan 18, 2017 07:46 PM

Still believe it is designed way to close to the way the WiiU works and is just an expansion of the WiiU which only has sold in the 13 to 14 million range. I am expecting the same for the switch if not less at this point.

Pr3tty F1y Jan 18, 2017 07:49 PM

I have a Wii U. I love my Wii U. Switch will be another Wii U... unfortunately.

ShaidarHaran Jan 18, 2017 08:56 PM

The Switch will easily sell at least twice as many systems as the Wii U because hardly anyone even knew the Wii U existed or what it was.

SubCog Jan 18, 2017 10:03 PM

I predict that if the Switch sells less than 20 million units, Nintendo will go 3rd party. They can't afford another WiiU... 2 failed consoles in a row will destroy consumer confidence, virtually guaranteeing that the next one will have no chance.

Meteor_of_War Jan 18, 2017 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShaidarHaran (Post 1337942844)
The Switch will easily sell at least twice as many systems as the Wii U because hardly anyone even knew the Wii U existed or what it was.

This is pretty much how I feel as well.

Their marketing for the Switch, while not perfect, has been waaay better than it was for the Wii U. That alone will earn it at least double the sales.

Keep releasing a great new 1st party title at least every 6 months and I wouldn't be surprised if it surpassed GameCube sales.

Sasquach Jan 18, 2017 10:49 PM

going with the 25-30 million range.

Wii-U had everything going against it:

-The Wii name (confused the hell out of people thinking its an addon to the wii and not a console of its own)
-long droughts of major releases
-Released at the tail end of the 7th generation console cycle.
-specs competitive with the 7th generation, but obliterated by the 8th gen. (do I have the generations correct?)
-Gimmick touchpad controller that like the original motion controls, no one knew how to utilize in a fun and unique way.
-still primitive online infrastructure
-Lack of storage space.

With the Switch we still have a power deficit but it looks like they're just completely disregarding anything wii/wii-U related and starting from scratch.
Plus its not super gimmicky, its got motion controllers (which is more or less the norm now) but other than that theres no real need to 'experience a new and different way to play' since its basically just a dockable handheld.

I see it as Nintendo's return to relevance. But not a return to dominance.

dmanna Jan 18, 2017 11:49 PM

The xbox one sales estimate after about 3 1/4 years is 26 million consoles sold. I know they have different target audiences but the Xbox one is a borderline success. MS does apparently still have 47 million subscribers to xbox live which gives them quite a bit of money though. 60-80 dollars a year at 47 million... not to shabby. Then add in there store purchases and game purchases.

Nintendo doesn't have all the extra money grabs.

SirBaron Jan 19, 2017 04:38 AM

I'm expecting 30-40 million.

GravY Jan 19, 2017 09:13 AM

upper end of the Dreamcast/Wii U failure level.

logical Jan 19, 2017 10:26 AM

Numbers in the poll seem a bit high to me but I went with Mild success which means in my eyes more than the WiiU... whatever that number is.

Mangler Jan 19, 2017 10:34 AM

I think it will end up doing worse than the 3ds, but better than the wii u.

SubCog Jan 19, 2017 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sasquach (Post 1337942866)
Wii-U had everything going against it:

Honestly I think the Switch looks fabulous, and the only thing going against it is it's parent company, who I'm convinced is utterly incapable of building and nurturing a gaming platform. Someone should call child-protective services and have the Switch taken away from Nintendo... I truly think that any of Nintendo's competitors are better capable of taking care of the Switch's well-being.

SirBaron Jan 19, 2017 12:44 PM

I don't know Sony are just as bad, in fact when vita didn't get good grades in school, Sony dropped that child faster than a hooker drops her pants.

SubCog Jan 19, 2017 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirBaron (Post 1337943005)
I don't know Sony are just as bad, in fact when vita didn't get good grades in school, Sony dropped that child faster than a hooker drops her pants.

That's 'cause Sony is focused on putting their successful kid through college.

|MaguS| Jan 21, 2017 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirBaron (Post 1337943005)
I don't know Sony are just as bad, in fact when vita didn't get good grades in school, Sony dropped that child faster than a hooker drops her pants.

While they stopped manufacturing the hardware they continue to support the platform with software. Even now the Vita is still getting games.

As for sales expectations, I say around 15-20 million in 5 years. It will do worse than Xbox this gen.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

GravY Jan 21, 2017 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by |MaguS| (Post 1337943615)
While they stopped manufacturing the hardware they continue to support the platform with software. Even now the Vita is still getting games.

As for sales expectations, I say around 15-20 million in 5 years. It will do worse than Xbox this gen.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Vita has been dead a long time. Almost zero development.

Sold mine a year ago. Awesome hardware with no support.

ShaidarHaran Jan 21, 2017 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GravY (Post 1337943624)
Vita has been dead a long time. Almost zero development.

Sold mine a year ago. Awesome hardware with no support.

Plenty of Japanese titles still being released, even this year. If you're a JRPG fan especially, Vita is one of the best platforms out there.

SirBaron Jan 21, 2017 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by |MaguS| (Post 1337943615)
While they stopped manufacturing the hardware they continue to support the platform with software. Even now the Vita is still getting games.

As for sales expectations, I say around 15-20 million in 5 years. It will do worse than Xbox this gen.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Really from what I hear Sony hasn't released any software. On vita in some time. Only the japanese developers are keeping the platform alive.

|MaguS| Jan 21, 2017 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirBaron (Post 1337943627)
Really from what I hear Sony hasn't released any software. On vita in some time. Only the japanese developers are keeping the platform alive.

And? So Sony has to develop games to consider it support? They are publishing many of the indies on it as well as the japanese games coming to it.

SirBaron Jan 22, 2017 04:32 AM

So you consider not manufacturing the device and not making games for it as support? :lol:

The only reason they publish games still is because thanks to Japan the device isn't a total train wreck and it requires no expense from Sony.

ragewars_sc Jan 22, 2017 06:17 PM

I hope it fails bad bad baaaad! I want Nintendo to 1 have competitive hardware( the least powerful but at least close to competition) or just make games.. seeing dragon quest for switch and for ps4.. makes me cry thinking how much better Zelda would look on a similar powered console :(
BUT.. i think there are lots of people that will buy this overpriced console... its a shame for the rest of us... but this is life!

ShaidarHaran Jan 23, 2017 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragewars_sc (Post 1337944008)
I hope it fails bad bad baaaad! I want Nintendo to 1 have competitive hardware( the least powerful but at least close to competition) or just make games.. seeing dragon quest for switch and for ps4.. makes me cry thinking how much better Zelda would look on a similar powered console :(
BUT.. i think there are lots of people that will buy this overpriced console... its a shame for the rest of us... but this is life!

If the Switch fails this will be Nintendo's last hoorah. Oh sure, their iconic franchises and characters will survive, but they'll be on other platforms which means they'll never be the same. They'll become the new Sega.

jimmt Jan 23, 2017 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GravY (Post 1337943624)
Vita has been dead a long time. Almost zero development.

Sold mine a year ago. Awesome hardware with no support.

I love mine and use it for remote PS4 gameplay. Sony still releases free games as part of the plus program for it. Still worth owning in my opinion.

Sasquach Jan 24, 2017 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShaidarHaran (Post 1337944171)
If the Switch fails this will be Nintendo's last hoorah. Oh sure, their iconic franchises and characters will survive, but they'll be on other platforms which means they'll never be the same. They'll become the new Sega.

If the switch succeeds then we'll see more stupid from Nintendo because they'll think Lightning struck twice and theyre smarter than everyone else.

If the switch fails I think theres going to be a company shakeup from the top down and/or they may partner with another company (hey lets say sega) and then try to create this super ultra mega console. If it flops worse than Wii-U they may pull have no choice but to pull out of hardware.

If the switch does somewhere in between (successful enough to keep the company alive) I'm guessing this would be their wakeup call to release a "normal" console next go around. Not necessarily the most powerful but something that can run multiplatforms enough without having to redo everything because its too different (lower the resolution, scale back the graphics quality a bit). Provide enough storage, provide enough ram, architecture matches the competition, enough GPU and CPU power that devs need). Then they can rebuild themselves this way without conceding defeat. Or they might just be content to be this 'secondary console for families' and just release weak stuff because people buy it.

Its obvious that they are working on contingencies: NES mini, amiibo, the mobile titles, the 3ds line isn't actually being 'replaced' by the switch.

They also have a lot of dormant IP that could spark interest in a switch version too. A new Metroid is being clamored for, Starfox needs an actual new game with a new story and not another remake/reboot for every system..., Kirby could use a more traditional game, Kid Icarus could find a home in HD, F-Zero needs to come back (sometimes people just WANT a newer/updated version of a game Miyamoto.....look at all the CoD's, and I'm sure nothing really needs to be fundamentally changed for a racing title....), Animal Crossing could be revived back to its original style, I think people want a Pikmin 4,
I think even some of the more obscure Japanese only releases could find a niche (Captain Rainbow, Disaster: Day of Crisis) if they were fleshed out more. Non portable versions of Fire Emblem, Bring back Batallion wars/Advance wars (those were fun!), Make a new Duck hunt in HD, etc.

SirBaron Jan 24, 2017 12:44 AM

They said the same thing about ds not replacing Gameboy that they will live side by side.

They're saying it's not replacing 3ds just Incase switch does bad, but I guarantee 100% if switch does good 3ds is going to suddenly get support cut off.

Then couple of years down the line you will get a switch mini,plays same games but is more kid friendly.

demo Jan 25, 2017 04:22 AM

weeners

TenFour Jan 27, 2017 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sasquach (Post 1337944472)
If the switch succeeds then we'll see more stupid from Nintendo because they'll think Lightning struck twice and theyre smarter than everyone else.

If the switch fails I think theres going to be a company shakeup from the top down and/or they may partner with another company (hey lets say sega) and then try to create this super ultra mega console. If it flops worse than Wii-U they may pull have no choice but to pull out of hardware.

If the switch does somewhere in between (successful enough to keep the company alive) I'm guessing this would be their wakeup call to release a "normal" console next go around. Not necessarily the most powerful but something that can run multiplatforms enough without having to redo everything because its too different (lower the resolution, scale back the graphics quality a bit). Provide enough storage, provide enough ram, architecture matches the competition, enough GPU and CPU power that devs need). Then they can rebuild themselves this way without conceding defeat. Or they might just be content to be this 'secondary console for families' and just release weak stuff because people buy it.

Its obvious that they are working on contingencies: NES mini, amiibo, the mobile titles, the 3ds line isn't actually being 'replaced' by the switch.

They also have a lot of dormant IP that could spark interest in a switch version too. A new Metroid is being clamored for, Starfox needs an actual new game with a new story and not another remake/reboot for every system..., Kirby could use a more traditional game, Kid Icarus could find a home in HD, F-Zero needs to come back (sometimes people just WANT a newer/updated version of a game Miyamoto.....look at all the CoD's, and I'm sure nothing really needs to be fundamentally changed for a racing title....), Animal Crossing could be revived back to its original style, I think people want a Pikmin 4,
I think even some of the more obscure Japanese only releases could find a niche (Captain Rainbow, Disaster: Day of Crisis) if they were fleshed out more. Non portable versions of Fire Emblem, Bring back Batallion wars/Advance wars (those were fun!), Make a new Duck hunt in HD, etc.

I don't think it makes business sense for them to ever attempt to compete on computing power with their hardware. It's not as profitable. They don't have other divisions in their company that give them the flexibility to have a break-even video game division like Sony and MS. Once these two giants entered the business, Sega and Nintendo had no choice but to bow out of the power race, learning the hard way with GameCube.

It may not be what we want as gamers, but for business reasons I don't think it will ever happen.

I think if the Switch is a total flop, they might give it one more go (they can afford to), or give up. But I fear that as a third party developer, they might go the way of Sega, where only one out of ten games is decent. I don't really know why that happened.

Perhaps Nintendo could thrive as a second party developer, continuing to do console exclusives.


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